Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad --- What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar)

The people of Iran today yet again proved that intimidation, imprisonment, torture, rapes, shootings and deaths were not going to deter them from continuing to oppose the Islamic Republic’s brutality and unjust policies. In that sense, it was a clear victory for the Green Movement. They managed to land people on the streets on the day that they wanted and the government –-- even though it employed thousands of security forces –-- was unable to stop them. This is despite the fact that opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi had cancelled the plans for the protest.

The reason for the success? It is likely that the protesters caught the government off-guard and showed incredible resillience. Instead of publicizing their intentions of protesting or declaring their routes of procession beforehand, they quietly let the government feel like they were not going to show up. Then they did.

Latest Iran Video: Protests of 22 Khordaad (12 June)
The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad

Through my sources, I can fully confirm protests in the city of Tehran. I have partial confirmation of protests in Shiraz, Mashaad, Isfahan, and Zahedan. Reports of protests have come in for Tabriz, Sari, Kerman, Sanandaj, Ahvaz and Aryashahr, but I have not been able to confirm any of them yet.



What is clear is that in Tehran people took to streets after 4 p.m. for protests in different parts of the city. The students of Tehran University staged a gathering with anti-government chants and the popular slogan, “The student dies but does not accept humiliation!”

Security forces clashed with the protesters and arrested at least six students. Tear gas was fired at protesters. There were also unconfirmed reports of shots, though no claims of injuries from gunfire. Students were injured, though, when they were beaten with batons, kicked, and punched by riot police and plainclothesmen who had surrounded the campus.

A second group of protesters tried to converge from different parts of Tehran upon the university to try and break the siege, but security forces managed to hold them back by blocking major streets with thousands of policemen, riot police, and plainclothesmen.

Other groups formed at Vali-e Asr Square where at least three were arrested and several were injured in clashes with security forces. Tear gas was used, as well as at Vanak Square where more protesters gathered and chanted “Death to the Dictator” and “Death to Khamenei”. (no reports of arrests confirmed as of yet from there). At the same time, students at Sharif University gathered inside their campus and chanted “Ya Hossein; Mir Hossein” and “Allah o Akbar” but were prevented from coming out by security forces.

By far the bloodiest clashes took place in Enghelab Square, which --- with adjoining streets --- was filled by at least 5,000 members of Iran’s security forces. At least 12 protesters were detained.

People also managed to gather in Taleghani Square, Palestine Square, Ferdowsi Square, Hafez Bridge, Laleh Park, Argentine Park and other areas. So far, the confirmed number of arrests stands at 21, but the actual number is almost certainly higher.

Due to the small numbers of videos available, the estimated number of protesters is anyone’s guess. However, it looks like today the streets had at least 10,000 security forces patrolling them, though I cannot confirm this number I can confirm.

There were two unconfirmed reports that merit a mention. The first one claimed that shots were heard from the government-owned broadcasting agency IRIB and that several of its staff members were held hostage by security forces inside the building. The second report claimed that some protesters had managed to break into security forces’ vehicles and managed to take their helmets and other equipment.

As for other cities, reports are few and far between. There are no videos of protests in these cities so far, although in the next few hours --- given the pattern from Tehran --- there probably will be.

Considering the fact that the Iranian government had amassed an army of security personnel to stop protesters from gathering, today’s events are a clear sign that the government is failing, as it has failed in the past, to quell the uprising. Whether the future holds more victories for the government or the Green Movement is as yet uncertain, but protesters returning from gatherings in Tehran were very optimistic and cheerful. Some indicated on blogs that it was a “great day” while others called it “the day we learned that we really are countless.”

So although a lot is still not certain today, there is one certainty. The successful protests, despite the government’s pressure, is going to give a strong morale boost to the Green Movement and is likely to make another dent in the cracking walls of the Islamic Republic.