Latest from Iran (1 November): Is This the Opposition's Moment?

NEW Video: Sharif University Protest (1 November)
NEW Video Flashback: Ahmadinejad v. The Giant Flying Bug
NEW Iran: More 13 Aban Videos
NEW Video: The Mothers of Martyrs March (31 October)
Iran: Mousavi Statement for 13 Aban Demonstrations (31 October)
Video: Tonight's “Allahu Akhbars” at Sharif University (30-31 October)
The Latest from Iran (31 October): Karroubi to March on 13 Aban

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2100 GMT: A Hold-Up of the Telecommunications Privatisation? Mehr News reports that Iran's General Inspection Organization has said uncertainties remain in the purchase of the Telecommunications Company of Iran (TCI), submitting its report to a Parliamentary committee for further investigation.

Three Iranian firms, part of a consortium named Etemad Mobin Development, bought 50 percent plus one share of the company for $7.8 billion on 20 September. There are claims that the Revolutionary Guard is a hidden partner in the consortium.

2050 GMT: Mr Smith adds to the news (1530 GMT) that Mehdi Karroubi restated his claims of election fraud in a meeting today. Karroubi was actually meeting the leadership of Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat, the student organisation who supported him in the Presidential campaign and whose leaders, Ahmad Zeidabadi and Abdollah Momeni, are currently in jail.

2030 GMT: More on Hengameh Shahidi. After some uncertainty this afternoon over her announced release on $90,000 bail, the Karroubi advisor was able to leave after more than 120 days in detention, including 50 in solitary confinement. There are reports that she has been transferred to hospital following her hunger strike last week.

We have been identifying Shahidi as a lawyer. Mr Smith checks in to correct us: she is a prominent journalist and war correspondent.

1550 GMT: "Other" Larijani Jumps In on Nuclear Issue. Sadegh Larijani, head of Iran's judiciary and brother of Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, has jumped into the discussion on the nuclear negotiations, declaring that they were not beneficial to Iran.

That's a pretty blatant political move, given that uranium enrichment isn't exactly a judicial responsibility. So is this now a Larijani axis against President Ahmadinejad on the issue of "engagement" with the West?

1540 GMT: Crackdown? The Western media are excited over a statement from Iran's deputy head of police Ahmad Reza Radan, "The police will act against any illegal gathering on the 13th of Aban." Even Britain's Sky News, which rarely notes internal Iran developments, hails this as a "Top Story".

We're playing wait-and-see. It was inevitable that the police would react to this week's 13 Aban declarations with law-and-order warnings. More significant will be any threats from Government leaders or the Revolutionary Guard.

1530 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi, speaking to the Central Council of University Alumni, claimed that votes were "rationed" in the Presidential election. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was allocated 25 million votes while Karroubi was allowed only 330,000.

1505 GMT: Iranian Labor News Agency is reporting that Karroubi advisor and lawyer Hengameh Shahidi, who has been on hunger strike in Evin Prison, has been released on $90,000 bail. Iranian activists are saying, however, that Shahidi has not appeared in front of the prison, where her family is waiting.

1500 GMT: Reformist political activist Behzad Nabavi has appeared in court today. After requesting an open trial, Nabavi, suffering from ill health throughout his four-month detention, was transferred to hospital.
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1450 GMT: And the Protest Videos Keep Coming. We've posted the latest, from Sharif University latest.

1425 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Sane'i has issued a statement inviting people to participate in rallies on 13 Aban (4 November). Sane'i warned that tyrants and autocrats should well know that the Iranian nation, by its strong resistance and by participation in the events of 13 Aban, will unveil and neutralise hidden and secret plans made against the rights and interests of the people.

1415 GMT: According to Iranian Labor News Agency, the head of  Friday Prayers Committee, Seyed Reza Taghavi, has declared that Hashemi Rafsanjani will not be leading Tehran's prayers in the near-future.

1200 GMT: The Coordination Council of the Reform Front has issued a statement inviting all people to demonstrate on 13 Aban (4 November). The Council condemned the post-election trials and heavy sentences imposed on protesters and expressed deep regrets and sorrow of “examples of promoting organised violence”, such as the assaults against Mehdi Karoubi and Alireza Beheshti at the Tehran Media Fair.

1135 GMT: Video Flashback. To honour President Ahmadinejad's defiance of his "mosquito" enemies, we have posted the video of his 6 July post-election speech, during which he battled a Giant Flying Bug.
1115 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. The Mosquito. Unsurprisingly, Western media are buzzing about the President's statement this morning, "While enemies have used all their capacities ... the Iranian nation is standing powerfully and they are like a mosquito."

No one, unfortunately, is interpreting what exactly mosquito-swatting means. Go beyond the metaphor, and Ahmadinejad is maintaining his strategy --- set out in his speech on Thursday --- of continuing talks by framing them as Western concessions to Iran's strength: "Given the negative record of Western powers, the Iranian government ... looks at the talks with no trust. But realities dictate to them to interact with the Iranian nation."

0945 GMT: State Media Endorses Khatami?

Really. Press TV gives a full and positive description of former president Mohammad Khatami's Saturday statement to reformist university groups (see yesterday's updates). The headline is "We Will Remain Critical of Power" from Khatami's assertion, “We will continue to stay critical of the current power trend, of course within the framework of a movement that supports Islam, the Islamic Republic and the [1979] Revolution.”

How can Press TV embrace the opposition leader? First, it emphasises that Khatami is calling for criticism within the system. Then it takes the sting out of Khatami's targeted criticism of "some deviations which must be set right with.. religious and Revolutionary principles", never mentioning that this is directed at the current Government. So Press TV can endorse Khatami's assurance that the Reformist movement denounces violence “by all means”, while ignoring the specific meaning of his declaration that "certain other parties endorse it as the basis of their thoughts and actions".

0900 GMT: Islamic Republic News Agency reports that the Russian Ambassador to Iran is continuing to press Tehran to accept the third-party enrichment deal for its uranium stock.

Does this state media report indicate the Ahmadinejad Government is still keeping the door open for talks? And, if so, how far?

0810 GMT: Profiles of the Day. Homy Lafayette writes about Mehdi Karroubi's advisor, journalist, and women's rights activist Hengameh Shahidi, who is on hunger strike in Evin Prison. Shahidi has been detained since 30 June.

And Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times picks up Wednesday's story of the maths student, Mahmoud Vahidnia, who challenged the Supreme Leader.

0800 GMT: A very good day for the Green opposition yesterday. Mir Hossein Mousavi took over the news cycle with his statement anticipating the protests of 13 Aban (4 November), and then Mehdi Karroubi announced that he would be joining marchers at Amir Kabir University on Wednesday. Meanwhile, amidst the in-house fighting over the nuclear talks with the "West", there was little of note from the regime.

A quiet morning so far, so we've posted other signals of the opposition momentum. There is video of the Saturday gathering in Tehran's Laleh Park of the mothers of those killed and detained, and we have the latest examples of the videos promoting the 13 Aban marches.

Comments

[Hossein]

In the opinion of man thinkers and truthful observers, the IR regime despite draconian measures and brutal crackdown of innocent people, is on its way out. For the first time even western pundits who have been blinded to the realities in Iran by their hatred of the previous administration and because of outdated anti imperialist sentiments, are coming around. Up to now some were saying that the western intelligence agencies (the usual names) are fermenting a "green revolution" which is far from the truth. They are now seeing clearly what we have seen unfold on the streets in Iran, namely that the "green" is a genuine grass roots movement and is not the result of some sinister western plot. We in Iran have known otherwise for decades now. People, majority of Iranians in fact, are fed up with the regime of lies and torture and corruption and death. Enough! We want freedom and the rule of law. We want the government of truthful Iranians and not cruel despots who put forth a fabricated ideology of death and fundamentalist Islam. We want real democracy. No one is dictating this to us. Western liberals should come and see for themselves how genuine and real the movement is. No one is receiving "orders" from some boggy "enemy." Please give us more credit. We want freedom and democracy just like everybody else. We are fed up with lies and with corruption and with torture and the culture of death. No more "death to!" We want "life to!" and we aspire to gain our freedom ourselves. Don't belittle us by agreeing with the despots that there is some "enemy" some western power who is doing this. No! We Iranians want freedom ourselves and we are not lackeys of anyone. Long live life. Freedom! This is our cry.

[Kevin Scott]

That was an amazing, wonderful, brave statement, Hossein :)

[Kevin Scott]

Is this the oppositions’ moment? Fascinating question.

If you all can bear with me, I’m going to frame what I think is the biggest question (of several) by making an analogy between 13 Aban and American football. :)

In 2008, at the beginning of the American Football season, the Miami Dolphins traveled to New England to play their rivals, the New England Patriots. The year before, the Dolphins had been hopeless. They were the worst team in football. The Patriots, on the other hand, had lost only one game all year – the Super Bowl. The Patriots had won 3 of the 5 previous Super bowls. The Patriots were favored by more than 25 points.

The Dolphins then unveiled a completely new offense, with a completely new formation called the “Wildcat”, and a strategy that nobody had seen before. Players would line up and play different positions than they usually played. The Patriots were confused and confounded. The Dolphins proceeded to rout the Patriots in front of 80,000 screaming Patriots fans.

A few weeks later, the Dolphins and Patriots played again, in a “rematch”. This time, the Patriots were ready. They’d seen the Wildcat before. They’d played videotape of it; they’d formed strategy about how to stop it. The Dolphins came out and tried to do the exact same thing they’d done a few weeks earlier. The Patriots crushed them.

To me, here’s the analogy: The Greens are the Miami Dolphins. The regime is the New England Patriots. The first game between them is analogous to the Quds Day faceoff. The Greens had an entirely new tactic on Quds Day which confused the regime: take over demonstrations on a day when demonstrations were not only tolerated, but were historically encouraged. The regime was caught unprepared and flatfooted. They had no good response. Greens have regained momentum since then.

13 Aban is the “rematch”. But now the regime knows what is coming. They have seen the Quds Day protests. They have watched videotape of the Quds Day protest. They’ve had 6 weeks to plan a new strategy about how to defeat the Quds Day strategy. They know that 13 Aban is the next big moment when the Greens will make their move.

If the Greens simply come out, like the Miami Dolphins, and do the exact same thing they did on Quds Day, they will likely be defeated. The regime is now expecting it, and they’ll have prepared for that. The Greens are going to have to show something a little different, and a little more advanced, such as more organization than before, enough people to overwhelm a huge security force, more thought about how to confuse the regime with routing, etc. Something new.

The good news is that after their loss to the Patriots, the Dolphins started innovating with their Wildcat. Every game, they would bring new strategies, and they’d tweak things just a little bit. Other teams could not prepare adequately. The Dolphins ended up recovering, winning 9 of their last 10 games and making the playoffs. Hopefully, rather than going through a loss in the “rematch”, the Greens will know this in advance and will be able to employ it to win! :)

[ange paris]

Hossein
Congratulations on your great statement, "We" are with you, as soon as "We" will win. VVVVV

[Roe Lassie]

Yes Hossein, thank you so much - I had goosebumps as I read it.

I'm really hoping that after Wednesday the Western Media will finally realise what the real story is, and they will catch up on time to cover the complete demise of the interlopers and we will all see freedom coming to Iran.

Freedom for Iran is a win win situation for the whole world!!!!!

[Megan]

Hossein,

Brilliantly said. We are with you all the way. In Solidarity, there will be demonstrations scheduled for 13 Aban (November 4) on both coasts of United Sates, from Washington DC to Los Angeles.

Epersainradio will broadcast events in Iran live on 13 Aban and we will be listening to it.

[Tessa K]

Kevin, nice analogy. I don't know anything about American football but I see your point.

The thing about the Greens as far as I've seen it is that there isn't much strategizing happening. They don't have fixed leaders and they follow what seems the path of least resistance. It's true that this path on Quds day ended up being the best strategy. Maybe that's why they will do the same thing on 13 Aban because logic says the regime will not open fire on demonstrators on a day that they themselves sanction demonstrations. Will the regime come up with a new way to crush the Greens? Who knows? Will the Greens come up with new, innovative ways to resist and survive? Again who knows?

One thing one has to keep in mind is that as relevant as the football analogy sounds it's not entirely accurate. These two sides are not playing on an equal playing field. To be more accurate one should compare the regime to a hunter and the Greens to a fox. They may be able to outrun and outsmart the government, but their first and most important goal that drives all their strategies is not to win, but to stay alive.

[Kevin Scott]

Megan -

there are a bunch of us on the U.S. East Coast waiting to come together for a demonstration on 13 Aban, but as of yet we cannot find a confirmed protest site and time. We assume that D.C. is the most likely place (perhaps along with NYC), so we are planning to be there. If you hear anything definite, can you comment here, or send to me at twitter.com/KevinScottDC or KevinScottDC@gmail.com ? Thanks so much!

[NiteOwl]

I'm puzzled. I'm not sure what to make of that. However, I feel like there's been a certain lull in the momentum of the protesters since Sept 18. This by no means is an indication that they have given up. However, arrogant dictators are usually not as cautious. But that's just one angle. There could be many other reasons.

I think, however, that for the moment, we need to sit and wait and see what happens on Nov 4. I'm not saying it's going to be a game-changer, but it will clarify media's position a bit more.

[Observer]

Perhaps the reality of everyday life, as Mousavi suggested, has changed irrevocably. Time does move on, and since Quds Day, the regime has lost a great deal both locally and elsewhere.

It bullies, threatens, tightens its grip in every way possible with few results, and each new atrocity pushes the actors deeper into the loss column. The way things really are is different now. For the Greens, staying alive IS winning.

Mr. Hossein, thank you for your beautiful thoughts. So very many are with you in spirit and in prayer.

[cyrus]

Rafsanjani`son criticises AN

http://www.facebook.com/search/?q=husain&init=quick#/video/video.php?v=1279539785767&ref=mf

[Catherine]

@ Observer re "Perhaps the reality of everyday life, as Mousavi suggested, has changed irrevocably. Time does move on, and since Quds Day, the regime has lost a great deal both locally and elsewhere."

This is obviously having an effect on how the regime is handling the current negotiations with the P5 +1 countries regarding the IAEA proposal. A quote by Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations says it all: "The underlying problem is this: there's been a breakdown in the country's foreign policy machinery. Iran doesn't have a foreign policy right now. It has domestic politics, and its foreign policies are just a sporadic expression of that. It's not sinister; it's not duplicitous; it's just incompetent."

Found in
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-cmanus1-2009nov01,0,594492.column

[ange paris]

On the facebook of Moussavi it's said that AN's fellows will attack some ambassy notably GB ambassy on wednesday, involving green demonstration in this affair !!

[Bill Davit]

Hossein,

Well said. It is ironic that the original supreme leader stated they came to power because the Shah did not listen to the people. Seems to me like the current supreme leader is doing exactly what the Shah did. While I have many issues with Islamic scripture one of the most vexing issues is "there is no compulsion in religion." It seems to me that the Iranian regime forgot to read this in the Quran because to them everything is compulsory. Many will argue this was abrogated but forget most of the abrogation was in reference to dealings with non muslims(which in my mind is still a big problem for interfaith issues when one side has a we vs them mentality.) Ironically the first supreme leader even discussed this yet it was him who moved the state towards totalitarian type of government. Fundamentally I think the issue is that any type of theocracy lends itself to a totalitarian type structure because they believe their truth is the only truth. I wish you all the best and may Iran be free one day.

thx
Bill

[ange paris]

The crazy world of religion !!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggwYT87YKwg

[Hossein]

Radan who has threatened 13th Aban demonstrators is the man responsible for the Kahrizak rapes and brutality, where he had himself joined others in beating the innocent youth unlawfully detained. People hate him and know this type of behavior will no longer be tolerated.

[Hossein]

Bill
The “there is no compulsion in religion” is not practiced by Muslims, where the unfortunate concept of taqiyyeh, meaning "dissimulation" has taken root. But, we are fed up with their lies. Indeed I believe the day will soon come that the despot will have to leave. The Islamic Republic will become the Iranian Republic and then we will show how in fact we can get along well with other people of the world. All we want is freedom, no small thing, and we need vigilance in order to achieve this goal.

[ange paris]

Iranian government has created a new mouvement called "jonbesh sabz alavi"!! green mouvement alavi, asking pro AN people to wear in green during the demonstrations !! the journalist is very happy because according to him, this decision, either will cheer the protesters up ( new supporters) or has shown the defeat of government !!

http://7tir.info/index/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=22385

http://www.farsnews.net/newstext.php?nn=8808100183

[Kevin Scott]

Tessa .. thanks for your commments.

I do know a fair number of Greens, and I think they would take pretty strong issue with your statement that they are not playing to win, but just to stay alive!

[Yseut]

ange paris What about this ''Jonbesh sabs alavi" ? Is it brand new
-just released- ? Did you see it mentioned anywhere else in web medias ?
Could it be designed to phase-out or throw confusion
among Green Mvt supporters in the rallye of next wednesday ? This
regime's reactions and maneuvres sound more & more schoolyard like
(only, they got real guns and weapons to use)

[ange paris]

Protests in " persepolis day " :

http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/

Yseut
Yes this brand has just released and I have seen the articles on the links mentionned above; I think it's to hide that the pro AN demonstrators are minority

[Yseut]

ange -brilliant ! effectivement une excellente raison ;- ) Thanx

[Latest from Iran (1 November):]

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[Hossein]

Excellent point. I think Kevin's analogy works well and the Green must now solidify the core and bring about a defined strategy. Thanks to Roe Lassie and Ange. I have heard that the government is desperate but they only know one thin g: violence as a means to perpetuate themselves. Their lies and their deceit over the past 30 years has met its end. Large majority of Iranian people no longer believe anything the say, and this fact is known yet denied. We want truth, and we want lawful processes to define our next encounter with the world. No more giving away our money to support groups whose ideology and tactics serve only the obscurantist forces of Islam. The majority reject the false belief, the false fundamentalist perspective that among other things has no respect for women nor for modernity. No more hate! We want life! Freedom! Stop fermenting chaos by giving our money away to radical backward and hate mongers in the Middle East. Please, no more. Obscurantist behavior and radical ideology and the desire to wipe people from the face of the earth are not what we believe in nor what we we advocate in the least. Enough hate. A.N. and his harsh mercenaries are near their end. We don't want them controlling our destiny and shouting death slogans we do not identify with one bit.

[Megan]

Ange,

This is not a new green movement it is a trick to get into the crowd and redirect the route to where government forces are waiting to arrest people.

I have listened to an old audio recording of a two-day training course by the regime. In this two-day training exercise riot police, Basijii and Pasdaran are being trained among other things how to infiltrate crowd and how to manage protest. Someone leaked these audio files. They are old (from ten years ago) but are very telling as how this regime works. I have seen every bit of that training at work during post election protests. Listening to it makes you sick but it will show how brutal and devious this regime is.