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Friday
Aug282009

The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays

NEW Latest Iran Video: Khamenei Speech to Student Leaders (26 August)
Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves “Velvet Revolution”

NEW Iran: Welcome to the “Velvet Revolution”

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AHMADINEJAD

1745 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Cabinet Woes. Press TV, from Iranian Labor News Agency, reports that the majority "principlist" bloc in Parliament is going to reject the three women among the President's 18 Ministerial nominations (albeit with some pretty weak excuses):
With regards to proposed health minister Marziyeh Vahid-Dastjerdi, [a bloc member] said that "certain reports about her business activities had reached the bloc which altered the opinion of the members about her".

The Principlist Majlis deputy, who sits on another bloc as well, said about Sussan Keshavarz, who has been offered the education portfolio: "We have heard that she was active in the campaign headquarters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi."...

The third candidate, Fatemeh Ajorloo, who was picked for the welfare post, was rejected because she "is too good". "It would be a shame if she becomes welfare minister," said the unnamed source, presumably because the ministry is due to be disbanded in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the reformist bloc of the Majlis has decided to vote in favor of Vahid-Dastjerdi.

1420 GMT: The Day's Big (Unseen) Story? I saw this floating around yesterday --- the storyinitially came out on the technology site of the Islamic Republic News Agency and then circulated on other Iranian websites --- but it is only with the help of EA's readers (see comments below) that I could put this together.

The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (Revolutionary Guard), which has become just as renowned in recent years for their role in Iran's economy as for their security function, are set to buy a major stakeholding in the Iranian Telecommunications Agency.

Since 2005, Iran had planned to float the shares of the state company, which is one of three operators in the country. One of the other two is owned by Hashemi Rafsanjani, but its reach is limited to Tehran and some smaller smaller cities. The Revolutionary Guard already have a stake in Iran Cell, so if they were successful in their bid for shares of ITA, they would be in a leading position in Iran's two major cellphone providers.

This is unlikely to be a case of the Guard showing up with chequebook in hand to buy the shares. Instead, as has been the case with other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automobiles, the purchase will be made through a front company.

There is also an interesting international twist in this story. Earlier this summer, a Russian company was to be granted a license as the third national cellphone operator, but the process suddenly stalled last month (companies from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait were also trying to get the license). The effective suspension is probably linked to the high process the Iranian Government was demanding, but it leaves the Revolutionary Guard in an even stronger position in the cellphone sector.

1400 GMT: In Case Anyone Really Cares. The actual address at Friday prayers in Tehran, as opposed to President Ahmadinejad's introduction, was delivered by Hojetoleslam Sadighi. His headline declaration was that the "world's exceptional crimes" are the crimes of Israel in Palestine.

1330 GMT: Today is turning into a contest of two statements and, in contrast to recent days, Western media are eagerly on top of the story. Former President Khatami's statement to reformist leaders is being juxtaposed with current President Ahmadinejad's speech at Friday prayers.

While there are a complex range of issues in this battle, from the legal issues of detentions/confessions/trials to the institutional challenges of who controls Iran's bureaucracy and security forces to the political showdown over Ahmadinejad's legitimacy, it is this sentence from Khatami that may represent the moment: "'The sacred Friday prayer podium has been given to those who...call for the punishment of prominent figures...while they are accused in the eyes of the public for committing treason themselves."

Even though Khatami was probably referring to Friday prayers past and addresses delivered by "hard-line" clerics such as Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, that sentence will be set next to Ahmadinejad's none-too-subtle call for the arrests of protest leaders.

To put an immediate question: 48 hours after trying to avert a showdown with his own statement, the Supreme Leader finds the confrontation ratcheted up several notches. What does Khamenei do now?

1200 GMT: More details are emerging of former President Khatami's statement in his meeting with leaders of the Reformist Front, via outlets such as Radio Farda and Parleman News. Khatami said that "the black cloud of worthlessness of people's votes under this regime should be eliminated" and that those who opened fire on the people on the streets should be prosecuted.

1150 GMT: Credit to Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times, who has just nailed the significance of this morning's events in his lead paragraph: "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad demanded the prosecution of opposition leaders today, raising the nation's political temperature just a day and a half after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sought to cool tempers in a conciliatory speech."

1130 GMT: Fars News Agency have published a summary of Tehran's Friday prayers address by Hojetoleslam Sadighi.

1030 GMT: Press TV has now posted its English summary of the Ahmadinejad speech, featuring the call for the "severe punishment of the orchestrators of the post-election unrest" and its "painful" events.

The President is not backing away from the "velvet revolution" theme, saying that Iranian opposition leaders were "deceived by the enemy's schemes (and) did their best to undermine the high voter turnout in the election and to shake the foundations of the Islamic establishment".

The president said, "I call upon security and judicial officials to decisively and mercilessly act with those who committed inhumane acts in the guise of the friends [of the establishment] since they inflicted damage on people and tarnished the image of the establishment, security and police forces."

0915 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami, meeting members of the Reform Front, has emphasised the need for a stronger presence of the reformists in Iranian politics with continuation of their efforts for change.

0900 GMT: More on the Ahmadinejad Speech. Fars News Agency has posted its summary. The President followed long-established lines with his references to 85 percent participation in the Presidential election and the 25 million who voted for him. This was testimony to the "revolutionary values" and "originality" of Iran. Enemies were trying to separate the "Islamic" and "Republic" in this Iranian revolution; however, Ahmadinejad proclaimed that, "after more than two months", these enemies were "staggering and had lost their way home", failing in their media plans and political efforts.

There was one nice touch in the rhetoric, especially since the President needs to be careful with his references to a "velvet revolution" that the Supreme Leader has now denied. Apparently the British Foreign Minister [David Miliband] had said, when asked why Britain was involved in Iranian affairs, that otherwise work on the Islamic Republic would soon be completed.

0840 GMT: Oh, yes, Ahmadinejad also asked Parliament to show their trust with votes of confidence in his "strong, coherent, professional, and honest" Ministers.

0830 GMT: Mahmoud Speaks. And wow, what a way to begin the introduction to Friday prayers. The President has claimed that attacks on University dormitories just after the 12 June election were staged by "relatives" of students and protestors, complementing their disturbances on the streets.

These acts tried to discredit the Presidential vote, "a matter of genuine democracy unlike other staged elections in the world, where the outcome is predetermined".

0800 GMT: A stuttering start to the day. We were laid low by a server problem but there is still no breaking news to report. We're waiting for first accounts of President Ahmadinejad's introduction of Friday prayers in Tehran, which should include glowing references for his Cabinet nominees.

We've taken the time, during the server outage, to write up a special analysis on the regime's pretext of "velvet revolution" as the cause of the post-election conflict. This, of course, has been true since June, but it came home to us this week with the testimony of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh during the 4th Tehran trial. Apparently some of our colleagues (and at least one EA staffer) are now amongst the velvet revolutionaries.

The "Western" media, from The New York Times to experts like Juan Cole, are now catching up with the last major development, the Supreme Leader's speech from Wednesday. (Unless it's The Washington Post, who apparently no longer care about Iran unless the story is about Tehran's nuclear threat; they are silent on Iran today.)

Reader Comments (25)

[...] Originally Posted by EA 0830 GMT: Mahmoud Speaks. And wow, what a way to begin the introduction to Friday prayers. The President has claimed that attacks on University dormitories just after the 12 June election were staged by “relatives” of students and protestors, complementing their disturbances on the streets. These acts tried to discredit the Presidential vote, “a matter of genuine democracy unlike other staged elections in the world, where the outcome is predetermined”.. 0840 GMT: Oh, yes, Ahmadinejad also asked Parliament to show their trust with votes of confidence in his “strong, coherent, professional, and honest” Ministers. The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays | Enduring America [...]

RUMOUR : INCREDIBLE IF TRUE : (SOMEONE PLEASE CONFRIM)

Today is "Government Day" in Iran incase anyone missed this. This means A.N giving a speech durin the Tehran Friday Prayer.

Now get this; AN not broadcast live instead the FP of Qom is being shown on TV.

Now wait a Minute: are we now saying that the President needs to be filtered ?????

Again I can not confirm this being true but if this is true, its another proof of the war getting more fierce soon. I think if the trend continues despite all that is happening we are actually still in the phase of peace before the storm.

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

RUMOUR # 2: AGIAN INCREDIBLE IF TRUE : (SOMEONE PLEASE CONFRIM)

It is said that within weeks the Guards are buying the "SHERKATE MOKHABERAT IRAN" Iranian Telecom Agency !!!??

I'm sure Siemens and Nokia will be providing them some new spying equipment to celebrate this.

Ps this is also reported on RAHE SABZ website...

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

ITS RUMOUR AFTER RUMOUR TODAY

RUMOUR # 3: AND YET AGIAN INCREDIBLE IF TRUE : (SOMEONE PLEASE CONFRIM)

It seems that they are bringing back the JUDICIARY POLICE. This is sorta the police of the armed forces. The Judiciary police does not arrest citizens but military people from Basij, Guards, Police and the Army.

They reports directly to head of Judiciary (S. LARRIJANI). Note that this is nothing new, Beheshti allready implemented this 30 years ago but somehow I belive duuring Khatami's presidency is seized excistence.

Agian just a Rumour, but a very important one if true.

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

I don't believe in SL distancing himself from AN; rather the opposite

0830GMT: " The President has claimed that attacks on University dormitories just after the 12 June election were staged by “relatives” of students and protestors, complementing their disturbances on the streets."

This has been prepared by SL's statement in front of the students yesterday:
""The attacks on the university dorms were crimes which have required a special inquiry, so that the culprits, regardless of their affiliations, can be brought to justice."

In my view, SL is still strongly backing AN and if Rafsandjani tried to pull them apart in his speech to the Expediency Council, he failed. The SL's few empty statements about "crimes that will be certainly dealt with," are but a smoke screen.

I

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterflorence Achard

@florence Achard

I think the facts are showing a diffrent picture. I could be that the SL is not going to turn his back completly yes but it is clear that he is trying to get more into the role of the SL and act more as a balancing power. (personally I think he has realised that to late and it will not be easy to do that now.)

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

[...] more here: The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays | Enduring … Tags: a-speech-durin, being-shown, live-instead, not-broadcast, speech-durin, tehran, [...]

Is it expected that people will believe the claims that friends, relatives & Moussavi supporters attacked, maimed & killed fellow conspirators? Or is it a talking point to get all the explainers on the same page? The regime seems to trot it out whenever something particularly egregious happens... maybe now because students are coming back?

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

Afshin
If rumor #1 is true, I wonder what they thought AN might say that would be so drastic as to need censoring? If rumor #3 is true... well I'm once again on the edge of my seat.

re. #2, does the Guard buy businesses outright and overtly own them or do they create ghost companies as proxy owners? Maybe the Guard's spying plans were thwarted when Russia canceled the mobile contract after the chants of "Down with Russia"?

Yes, all are rumors, but it's a slow day... why not chew on them a bit?

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

@ Amy,

Their main income is smuggling, Alcohol, Sat. dishes, Sigarettes they have the monopoly on. That is why the Guards not only are not scared by sanctions against the IRI but welcome it. The Smuggling biz is booming. the more sanctions the richer the Guards, Their profit from the smuggling alone is claimed to be at 12 Billion USD a year.

But at the same time they have many legit operations which they own directly or indirectly.

When u see A.N defy the leader so openly it is because he knows they have th guns, they have the cash and they have the thugs. They feel untouchable...

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

I know we went over it before but I'm a little muddled. Are Pasdaran solely the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or are other malitia such as the Basij included?

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

@ Amy

it is called SEPAH PASDARAN - Islamic Revolutionary Guards - The most sophisticated Army of Iran - Army of 120.000

Basij and Ansar Hezbollah are Militia.

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

Afshin
From your comment (#10),

That is why the Guards not only are not scared by sanctions against the IRI but welcome it. The Smuggling biz is booming. the more sanctions the richer the Guards, Their profit from the smuggling alone is claimed to be at 12 Billion USD a year.

Along with Scott's analysis (yesterday), we need somehow to make this point to the US govt. Not only are we hurting the people we hope to help (the people of Iran), but we are helping the people we think we hurt.

I'm going to write some letters, but we need somebody they will listen to... Scott maybe?

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

@AMY
Pasdaran are the uniform wearing section of the the IRGC. The Basijji are a para military militia force and don't wear a uniform typically. They are not officially a Pasdar. The official Farsi name Sepah Pasdaran Jomhori Eslami (Islamic Republic Guards Corp), but in Farshi we interchangeably use Pasdaran or Sepah to refer to the IRGC members.

RAND has a great in depth article on this force, if you want to see in detail their activities, story etc. Search in google for RAND and IRGC.

@All

One last point, and it is that I have been singing how the Pasdaran are taking over Iran since 2005 / 2006. Especially in Business and now completely in politics. It is only this week it seems that the mainstream media has started to smell the coffee. Many journals are now starting to dig into this force and see what they are about. Where as we all said over 5 to 6 weeks ago that Pasdaran has staged a coupe and taken the SL along with them.

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterwhereismyvote

@Afshin Re Telecoms sale

There are three current cell operators in Iran. Talia owned by Rafsanjani, but severely limited in operation to only 2 million subscribers in and around Tehran and some small other cities. Officially Talia does not have a national spectrum licence and acts as an MVNO and operates under the MCI licence, but has some of its own Switches and Infrastructure too. So its a partial MVNO, partial carrier.... (Only in Iran)
Iran Cell with well into 20 million subscribers heavily owned by 1) Pasdaran 2) MTN of Africa and 3) Other private investors. Finally we have the MTC (State Mobile Telephone Company) with well over 24 million subscribers and they have been planning to float shares of it in the exchange for some time now (4 years and counting) If a sale happens it will be that they will float the shares and then a Pasdaran fronted company will buy them on the exchange. This is not only possible, but it is well known that in the last 5 years Pasdaran have started to buy the shares of many many many companies from drug manufacture, to car manufacture on the stock exchange. I think it is more than likely that if the floatation proceeds it will happen.

The Russians were to be granted a new licence for third national operator, and it seems that it is in limbo. This is a 3G spectrum as well as a regular licence, so it could be quite lucrative. Etisalat of UAE and a Kuwait company bid on it before pulling back. The Russians were the third bid, but there is a lot of fight cause the Russians are not willing to pay the so called 200 million the government wanted for the licence. The Chinese has the right for all network contracts for this new carrier.

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterwhereismyvote

@ whereismyvote

I think the rumour is saying "Sherkate Mokhaberate Iran" would that not make it beyond just the cell phone operators?

They are actuallt buying ""Sherkate Mokhaberat" it self

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

[...] does the Supreme Leader do now? Scott Lucas, over at Enduring America, has had superb coverage of the internal political disputes going on in Iran, and today is no [...]

1330 GMT: "What does Khamenei do now?"

Paraphrasing whereismyvote from the other day: what was he thinking? The question covers every step along the way. At every stage, there are steps he could have taken to de-escalate, but he's done little in that direction. Is it that he can't or that he won't?

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

I cant believe this Iranian president was able to stand in the sacred podium of their friday prayers telling all those lies. Does he thinks the good people of Iran still believes him?

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterCecilio

@ Afshin

If it is actually Sherkateh Mokhaberat that is the main Landline operator, as well as much of the back end DSL network. Most DSL providers rent back end network from TCI, as well as rely on its dry DSL hookup for the last mile.

In English the Management is split into MCI - Mobile Company of Iran and TCI - Telecoms Company of Iran. There was plans to create a management company that reports to the communication minister and spin these two companies out as private companies. This has been planned and re planned for some 6 to 7 years with delay on delay. The problem is that many people use the terms interchangeably.... Second problem is that both have been up for privatization for so long with so many cancellations that one does not know which one is coming up for sale. My understanding was that they were looking to sell MCI first and TCI second. But who knows...

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterwhereismyvote

The biggest news from Ahmadinejad's speech is that he admitted that atrocities occurred. He is apparently unable to deny that detainees were abused.

He said, "The attack on (Tehran) University dorm and certain mistreatments in detention centers were foul deeds," according to state-sponsored PressTV. He has lost control of the discussion.

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterBendix

[...] Voting News From The Parliament The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays | Enduring America [...]

At what point is AN in trouble re cabinet approvals? Does the cabinet have to be approved en masse-- all or nothing? Are 1 or 2 disapprovals OK?

Disapproving anybody for being "too good" is beyond ludicrous. Interesting they don't mention issues with male nominees.

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

pls read & share this important message that was received from iran (aug27) : "atmosphere in iran" http://bit.ly/zfobg
also here is link to the 'Stand for Iran' poster, action planned on september 24th when Ahmadinejad comes to NYC : http://bit.ly/zPD36
please pass on widely - blessings to all

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterWishOneDay

[...] The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays | Enduring America enduringamerica.com/2009/08/28/the-latest-from-iran-28-august-the-president-prays – view page – cached NEW Latest Iran Video: Khamenei Speech to Student Leaders (26 August) Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves “Velvet Revolution” NEW — From the page [...]

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