The Latest from Iran (21 August): Political Battles

NEW Video: The Sohrab Protests (20 August)
EA Soundcheck: Assessing Afghanistan, Iran, and Iraq
The Latest from Iran (20 August): Grinding to a Halt

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2035 GMT: We had heard rumours all day about this story but, given its explosive nature, had held off posting without confirmation. It has now appeared on a "reformist site", Norooz, and has been recommended by the Facebook page of Zahra Rahnavard, Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife.

A member of staff of a Tehran cemetery told Norooz that on both 12 July and 15 July, the bodies of tens of protestors were brought in without any identification, secretly and under strict security. Staff were forced to issue compulsory burial licences, and the bodies were interred in Section 302 of the cemetery.

2030 GMT: We had reported earlier on protests last night in Tehran (1015 GMT), but it is only after seeing some video that a reader recommended that we realised quite how powerful those demonstrations, both against President Ahmadinejad and in honour of slain protestors such as Sohrab Arabi and Neda Agha Soltan, were. We have posted the video in a separate entry.

2010 GMT: Follow-up on Kayhan. It looks like the "hard-line" newspaper will escape suspension. Tabnak reports that the Tehran Prosecutor's office has denied accounts that the Media Court ordered Kayhan's temporary closure after its editor twice failed to answer court summons. (An English-language summary is on Tehran Bureau.)

1945 GMT: More extracts from the significant event of the day, Friday prayers in Qom (1445 GMT), where Ayatollah Amini criticised the Government:

You are not one another’s enemy. You are all in favor of the establishment, Islam and the rule of the Just Jurisprudent. Why don’t you, instead of talking to the enemy, talk to one another and find a solution to this disunity?

I am not talking about one party or the other… You, as the elite, must sit down and talk. If injustice has really been done to people, deal with it. If an innocent has been incarcerated, release him. And if someone has been shamed [publicly], apologize to him, and properly deal with those who are really guilty.

How must I advise you to set aside disunity for it to register? We are not enemies and our solidarity is possible. Resolve this issue through dialogue and stop giving the enemy something to talk about.

If you want to mend the situation as caring individuals, end the conflict and prevent it from expanding.

1445 GMT: News is emerging that the significant Friday prayers address was not in Tehran but from Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini in Qom. Amini demanded the release of all innocent prisoners and comforted those who had been unfairly victimised by recent events. Reportedly, the sermon has caused supporters of the pro-Government Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi to back away from plans to protest against Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i and his now-famous video condemnation of the regime.

Amini's address follows his meeting this week, with other clerics, with the Supreme Leader, reportedly to raise criticisms about the role of Khamenei's son Mojtaba in political affairs.

1130 GMT: Officially, Not a Peach. President Ahmadinejad's office has removed his reference to former Minister of Health Kamran Lankarani as "a peach one wants to eat" (see 1000 GMT) from the official transcript of his televised broadcast.

1030 GMT: Iran Republic News Agency does not mention Jannati's challenge to arrest opposition leaders although it says he pointed out "the consequences of slander".

1025 GMT: Jannati Answers. In our first update (0645 GMT), we advised, "Watch...for how far Jannati pushes for punishment of the "ringleaders" of the protest."

Here's the response from Friday prayers in Tehran: "Riots are our main issue today ... Some people were arrested and some were not. Why weren't the leaders behind the riots arrested? ... Their arrest should be the first thing that the judiciary must do."

1015 GMT: A bit more on the broadcast: a reader points us to this from the Green movement's Mowj-e-Sabz, "There were rooftop protests all over the country and especially the Apadana area in Tehran [the neighbourhood of Sohrab Arabi, who was killed on 15 June but whose death was not confirmed for a month]. People gathered ...in streets in protest and were chanting 'Death to Dictator'. This was in solidarity with Sohrab’s family, as it was also the 40th day anniversary of his martyrdom."

1005 GMT: Ahmadinejad - Compromise or Showdown? There is one clue in last night's Presidential broadcast for this question, highlighted in an EA Soundcheck yesterday. Ahmadinejad said that, if the Ministry of Intelligence had done its job properly, there would have been no post-election conflict.

That's a clear slap at former Minister of Intelligence Ejeie and Iran's judiciary, which has just appointed him as Prosecutor General. But it also is a shot in the ongoing battle over who controls the Ministry, amidst the firing of up to 25 key officials. Look for a response from "conservative" and "principlist" opponents of Ahmadinejad.

1000 GMT: It is a relatively slow news day in Iran. We're awaiting the summary of Ayatollah Jannati's Friday prayer address in Tehran, and there has been surprisingly little reaction to President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast promoting his Cabinet choices.

We'll take advantage of the pause to feature the "hot" story on the Internet about the broadcast, noting the President's remarks about his outgoing Minister of Health, Kamran Lankarani: "In his TV appearance last night, Ahmadinejad praised him as one of the most able administrators of his previous cabinet and said: 'I have a special personal interest in him, a pious and faithful young man. Once I said he is like a peach, one wants to eat him!"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQUwNDG1Tdc[/youtube]

I leave further interpretation and analysis up to EA readers.

0725 GMT: Picking up on another (largely unreported) story from yesterday. A Parliamentary Commission member has warned that Mir Hossein Mousavi's proposed "Green Path of Hope" political front will not receive a license for public activity.

0700 GMT: Last night's EA Soundcheck podcast includes a lengthy discussion of the pressure on President Ahmadinejad, both from inside the "establishment" and from public protest. General verdict? The President is in a long-term battle. I don't think he'll win, but before that comes the urgent question, will he offer any compromise or press even harder (possibly in co-operation with the Revolutionary Guard) for a showdown?

One clue to an answer: see if next Tuesday's fourth round of trials of political detainees goes ahead and how much publicity it gets in state media.

0645 GMT: With Ramadan starting tomorrow, this could be the last full day for political manoeuvres for the next few weeks. At the same time, nothing can defer the manoeuvres over President Ahmadinejad's submission of his Cabinet choices to the Iran Parliament.

And the challenge may have another dimension. An EA correspondent has reviewed the speech that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani gave to the Iranian Society of Engineers, mentioned in yesterday's updates. He notes that Larijani offered a response to Mehdi Karroubi's initiative on the abuse of detainees.

On Wednesday, Karroubi sent an official letter to Larijani asking him to arrange a meeting including Ahmadinejad, the head of Iran's judiciary, Mohammad Larijani, the head of the Assembly of Experts and Expediency Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the Prosecutor General, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, where Karroubi would produce his graphic evidence of the abuses.

Larijani said yesterday that he is willing to participate in such a meeting, "We do not want to preserve any secrecy in this regard and hide any evidence from the public." So will the Speaker not only willingness but press for the gathering, knowing this could be the issue that bends if not breaks the Ahmadinejad Government?

On the public front, Ayatollah Jannati will lead Friday prayers in Tehran today. Expect a hard-line address continuing the recent theme, after last week's replacement of Hashemi Rafsanjani by Ahmad Khatami, supporting the Supreme Leader and Government and deriding the foreign-inspired protest movement. Watch, however, for how far Jannati pushes for punishment of the "ringleaders" of the protest.

Comments

[whereismyvote]

No one seems to have taken the bate, I will then do so........
Before I start, I want to say that this is in light of humor only, and that personally I think there is nothing wrong about homosexuality.... however:

Its official Mr. AN has homosexual tendencies. The phrase someone is like a peach and I want to eat them, has pure sexual connotation in Farsi.... Typically its reserved for a young girl in early teens with pale white skin and slightly red cheeks. Baby fat on the face, and slightly plumb in the body....

Now that we know Mr. AN's taste in men, why not force him out of the closet? Perhaps this explains his Colombia / New York speech.

Alternate scenario, Mr. AN was outing his health Minister and has got no homo tendencies...

[Amy]

How is Ramadan likely to affect the current situation in Iran? Do people change their activities significantly? Several years ago I had a Muslim martial arts teacher from Mali who did nothing visibly different during Ramadan except refrain from food & water till the end of the day. (We were afraid he would keel over from lack of water.) An Iranian supervisor & a Pakistani coworker never mentioned Ramadan. They may or may not have observed it-- I'm not sure if they were practicing Muslims as we rarely talk about religion in the workplace, tho at a different job I had a very religious coworker from India who prayed 5 times a day. He came to work as usual during Ramadan.

Is Ramadan observeded in different ways between Sunni & Shia? Do customs vary regionally? Don't people often gather with groups of friends at the end of the day when breaking the fasts? Might protests happen at that time, or is it purely religious?

[adriana]

I AM SORRY BUT I HAVE TO SAY THAT CLIP, MADE ME VOMIT, LITERALLY.
GOD, I DONT FORGIVE YOU FOR THIS CLIP.EYOO!

[Amy]

whereismyvote
I'm with you on homosexuality. The humor comes from the macho swagger & the hardline religious image of the regime.

It's not necessary to speak Farsi to get the meaning of the phrase, though your visual image is especially vivid. Didn't AN recently use the same phrase about someone? ... maybe Esfandiar Rahim Mashai... I'm pretty sure-- it stuck in my mind. I remember thinking it must have a different connotation in Iran because in the US no politician would be saying something like that about somebody in public whether homosexual or heterosexual

re. 1130 GMT post: They can't rewrite the video

[Afshin]

Coming back to more seriuos topics (not that i did not enjoy Mr A.N open outings of affection towards his priviuos health minister), I am somewhat pessimistic the last few days.

Lookig at the rumour circuit one has every reason to be joyfull as the information coming out of Iran shows many a reason to celebrate and allthough I fully support the analyses of many experts that A.N and Gurds(current top) are infact looking at their last days of glory and the general expectations of A.N's second term in officie being a short lived one, I am not as sure if this is a major gain for Iran still.

When one removes the rumours and unconfirmed reports and restrainst one self to the news that has actually been confirmed by reliable sources it seems that the S.L (Conservatives) are coming out of this great battle as the victors. Allthough in the longrun they have been dealt a major below which can not in any way be fully repaired in the short futur they seem to be gaing power. They have been given the perfect excuse and are backed by an entire nation inc their political enemies to strip A.N and the Guards of their power yet silencing the opposition as well that justice is being done as requested.

Curious if the readers and EA are as pessimistic about this as I am ?

The only glimpse of hope in this story is what will happen when the owner kills his own "out of control watch dog" ? With the watch dog killed who will be left to protect the house and its owner ?

Or will the owner manage to once again tame the dog and sleep safe for another decade or so ?

[Ahmadinejad softens rhetoric a]

[...] Official Transcript omits 'peach' remark پايگاه اطلاع رساني رياست جمهوري اسلامي ايران The Latest from Iran (21 August): Political Battles | Enduring America [...]

[Nancy]

Have you noticed how presstv today characterized the June 12 election:
"Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the winner of the hotly-disputed June 12 presidential election"

Any thought about the changing tone of Press TV over time, acknowledging more and more the "disputes" over the election.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=104116&sectionid=351020101

[kevina]

From another PressTV piece:

"The re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president on June 12 sparked an outpouring of anger and contempt among Iranians and massive demonstrations were staged by supporters of defeated presidential candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi who claim the vote was "fraudulent".

The crackdown on the demonstrations turned violent and some 30 people were killed and hundreds injured while Iranian police, Basij and plain-clothed forces rounded up thousands of protesters, pro-reform figures and journalists.

The unrest, meanwhile, opened up a rare divide among the ruling elite with some senior officials and clerics calling for the release of detainees to regain the "shattered" trust of the people in the system."
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=104129&sectionid=351020101

The use of the word "contempt" really caught my eye, along with the clear mention of the Basij's role in this.

[whereismyvote]

Re Afshin:
We have been full of comparisons and analogies todaty, but reading your comment, I had to reply in Orwellian terms. What we are seeing is that Napoleon's Offspring dogs, and children of Jessie and Bluebell, have stood up, took hostage Napoleon for the sake of taking control. Now can the other pigs rally together to kill or weaken the dogs and bring some control back to the farm? Or will they need the rest of the animals (populous) to get behind them and help before they push the dogs off the mantle of control? Does Napoleon value life more than power? Will he call for the destruction of the dogs or will he subdue and be a subtle quite hostage, living in luxury?

Well I tell you one thing. No matter what happens, Dogs take control (Pasdaran) or Napoleon and the pigs take control (Khamanei / Pragmatist alliance) or the people power used to bring back some order (reform card played with the Rafsanjani / Reform alliance) the people have woken up now. Iranian nation today is like a born again christian. It has been reborn to discover its voice its power and this means no ruler of Iran, today or tomorrow can go to bed and sleep in peace.

The only salvation is for people to maintain their vigilance and continue to be central. Disposing of parties and alliances year after year, till politicians start to be representative of them

But in direct response to your question, yes this week was one of the quietest and saddest weeks of the movement. We were so full of hope all along for we could feel change was upon us. We went to the streets, fought and wore our bruises as badges of honer. The swelling has gone done, my bruise is now gone from blue to dark yellow. But my heart has started to see dark black again. If I continue to see retreat for the reformers, I will dust off my passport and leave. I will take up the fight from outside. I want not to live in a place where there is no hope.

[Scott Lucas]

Nancy/Kevin,

Thanks to both of you for excellent finds --- your analysis is on the cutting edge, as most Western media have failed to notice this.

I think the extract cited by Kevin, which I have just read, is even more significant because it comes in an analysis which begins with the call of Ayatollah Jannati at today's Friday prayers to round up the leaders of the protests. In other words, instead of letting a piece on Friday prayers stand on its own (as in past weeks), Press TV has critiqued the comments by setting them in the context of protest which may have legitimate grounds.

S.

[Afshin]

looking at the trend of the last few days, the Press TV pieces are anything but a surprise. It falls right within the expectaion and is merely another piece of evidence that indeed the dog has grown to strong and to dangerous having a will of its own and the owner has come to see the dangers of it, now wanting it to put back under control or perhaps even put to sleep.

I am indeed a bit pesimistic to cheer to fast as I am not sure if this is by definition a good thing. The enemies of my enemie is not by definition my friend. It is still unclear who will benefit the most from this situation.

Yes A.N and the Guards are under constact atack and yes they seem to be on the retreat as well. But if its one thing I have seen A.N do the last few years is prove he is a fighter, he dares look danger in de eyes ans say move out or else. Remember this is the man that just recently declined the wishes of the S.L. to remove his vice president even after the S.L wishes where made public. Eventually he did NOT fire him and his V.P resigned himself only to take another top postiosn as chief of staff. Coming week is perhaps one of the most intresting weeks so far and will show the winner of the A.N vs S.L Poker game.

A.N and the S.L have been bluffing big, Ahmadi put in big (annoucing last minute his cabinet and refusing to compromise), S.L called his bluff and went over bluffed him (appointing S. Larrijani and showing dissatisfaction with A.N cabinet selection on atleast 5 positions). What will A.N do will he call the S.L bluff and stick to his guns? They both know that if A.N goverment falls they will both lose big. so they both need this cabinet to be approved and they both know that giving in even the slightest on anything could mean the start of the end. So who has the bigger B%^&!, who can manage their nerves better and who will eventually outbluff the other one?

It is also fully within the line of expectation for the Greens as well as Hashemi to be more low profiled these days as a fight between two enemies is always to your advantage as they will both weaken. get involved to fast and they may unite against you, get involved to late and you may lose the momentum of your losing your power and support. Also for them it is game of Poker.

Next week and the week after should bring some very intresting events. I can hardly wait.

[florence Achard]

whereismyvote,
I'm an outsider (france) so I may be wrong but my feeling is that reformers, as they don't really question the islamic regime, can't get anywhere unless they are firmly pushed forward by millions of protesters in the street; yet, whether unwittingly or knowingly, they have helped quench the protests. I'm rather pessimistic and sad for you all in Iran, all the more so since I'm sure there are millions who don't want to resign themselves to be deprived of freedom, but so far, in my opinion, they don't have the opposition leaders they deserve.

[Afshin]

@ florence Achard

Well said. Allthough at times I tend think we have not yet deserved a better opppsotion leader. but I am happy tp say we are getting there bit by bit.

[Afshin]

@whereismyvote

I would not blame you for leaving. but the fight is something that will need to be fought and won from the inside.

[Amy]

Afshin
You have me on the edge of my seat.

[Afshin]

Dear Amy, Be carefull. Don't fall off, we might need you the coming weeks.

[Amy]

Afshin
LOL! Hanging on...

re. your #13 comment I would say 2 things
1. Nobody deserves what has happened to the people of Iran, especially since the election. It's really hard to say so, but even the oppressors shouldn't receive such treatment. They should be dealt with by rule of the laws they are unwilling to enforce on themselves

2. How can you say you don't deserve better opposition leaders? You have shown great courage in the face of brutal organized oppression. I only wish your freedom can come sooner

[Afshin]

We had a Revolution 30 years back and had a choice. This was not forced to the nation, To the individual YES but to the nation NO.

People tend to get the goverment they deserve. We are only just coming to a phase where we might be ready for a western style Democracy.

[Afshin]

Well that was my last contribution for the night... really late here so I am going to look at the world from the inside of my eyes.. sleap tight everybody.

[Amy]

Sleep tight, Afshin :)

[The Latest from Iran (21 Augus]

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