Tuesday
Feb172009
Is Israel Winning a Covert War Against Iran?
Tuesday, February 17, 2009 at 9:10
Latest Post: Is Israel Winning a Covert War Against Iran?: An Alternative Analysis
The Daily Telegraph of London splashes a contemporary spy drama on its pages this morning:
That's quite plausible, of course, given declarations such as that of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak yesterday that an Iran nuclear weapons programme would be an "existential threat" to Tel Aviv.
But then the story gets almost as murky as the covert project. The only source is a "former CIA officer on Iran" who claims, "Disruption is designed to slow progress on the programme, done in such a way that [the Iranians] don't realise what's happening....The goal is delay, delay, delay [the weapons programme] until you can come up with some other solution or approach."
No direct evidence there and the only cited case is that "Mossad was rumoured to be behind the death of Ardeshire Hassanpour, a top nuclear scientist at Iran's Isfahan uranium plant, who died in mysterious circumstances from reported 'gas poisoning' in [January] 2007". At the time, the US Government's Radio Farda circulated the report, supported by a Reva Bhalla of Stratfor who insisted there was "very strong intelligence" that Hassanpour had been targeted by Israel. Iranian news services countered that Hassanpour had not been employed by the Atomic Energy Organisation: "[All] nuclear experts, Thank God, are sound and safe."
Unsurprisingly, Bhalla pops up in The Telegraph for a sound-bite but adds no evidence. And the article has no other cases to test; it just asserts, based on "Western intelligence sources": "Other recent deaths of important figures in the procurement and enrichment process in Iran and Europe have been the result of Israeli 'hits', intended to deprive Tehran of key technical skills at the head of the programme."
The article lists other operations which are far more likely to be significant, such as "Israeli and US intelligence co-operated with European companies working in Iran to obtain photographs and other confidential material about Iranian nuclear and missile sites" and "Israel has also used front companies to infiltrate the Iranian purchasing network for 'dual use' items – metals, valves, electronics, machinery – for its nuclear programme".
Overall, however, this reads as a different type of operation, a bit of "psychological warfare" to keep Tehran off-balance over what might and might not be attempted to undermine its nuclear programme and to add the stick to the carrot of "engagement". And, given that the main sources are "Western" and the story is out of New York, this has the feel of folks in the US Government --- possibly supported by London --- putting the pressure on Iran.
The Daily Telegraph of London splashes a contemporary spy drama on its pages this morning:Israel has launched a covert war against Iran as an alternative to direct military strikes against Tehran's nuclear programme, US intelligence sources have revealed. It is using hitmen, sabotage, front companies and double agents to disrupt the regime's illicit weapons project.
That's quite plausible, of course, given declarations such as that of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak yesterday that an Iran nuclear weapons programme would be an "existential threat" to Tel Aviv.
But then the story gets almost as murky as the covert project. The only source is a "former CIA officer on Iran" who claims, "Disruption is designed to slow progress on the programme, done in such a way that [the Iranians] don't realise what's happening....The goal is delay, delay, delay [the weapons programme] until you can come up with some other solution or approach."
No direct evidence there and the only cited case is that "Mossad was rumoured to be behind the death of Ardeshire Hassanpour, a top nuclear scientist at Iran's Isfahan uranium plant, who died in mysterious circumstances from reported 'gas poisoning' in [January] 2007". At the time, the US Government's Radio Farda circulated the report, supported by a Reva Bhalla of Stratfor who insisted there was "very strong intelligence" that Hassanpour had been targeted by Israel. Iranian news services countered that Hassanpour had not been employed by the Atomic Energy Organisation: "[All] nuclear experts, Thank God, are sound and safe."
Unsurprisingly, Bhalla pops up in The Telegraph for a sound-bite but adds no evidence. And the article has no other cases to test; it just asserts, based on "Western intelligence sources": "Other recent deaths of important figures in the procurement and enrichment process in Iran and Europe have been the result of Israeli 'hits', intended to deprive Tehran of key technical skills at the head of the programme."
The article lists other operations which are far more likely to be significant, such as "Israeli and US intelligence co-operated with European companies working in Iran to obtain photographs and other confidential material about Iranian nuclear and missile sites" and "Israel has also used front companies to infiltrate the Iranian purchasing network for 'dual use' items – metals, valves, electronics, machinery – for its nuclear programme".
Overall, however, this reads as a different type of operation, a bit of "psychological warfare" to keep Tehran off-balance over what might and might not be attempted to undermine its nuclear programme and to add the stick to the carrot of "engagement". And, given that the main sources are "Western" and the story is out of New York, this has the feel of folks in the US Government --- possibly supported by London --- putting the pressure on Iran.
Reader Comments (7)
Seeing as how it was leaked by the US, could it also be a carrot to Iran and a stick to Israel? It hurts Israel that the US leaked it, obviously, but it could also signal to Iran that the US is sincere in its peace efforts and not simply a puppet/puppeteer of Israel. This could be considered hard evidence that Israel won't have a "free hand" under Obama. If they go off the reservation, Obama may call them out on it. I don't think it's psychological warfare, I think its a gesture of good faith.
Point taken, UJ. I hope you're right --- waiting to see what Iranian colleagues make of the story.
“Other recent deaths of important figures in the procurement and enrichment process in Iran and Europe have been the result of Israeli ‘hits’, intended to deprive Tehran of key technical skills at the head of the programme.”
---Sounds more like something out of a spy novel to me. In the real world, Israel just doesn't have that sort of capability.
How is it not believable? Remember the ex-KGB guy who was poisoned in London? That was supposedly done by Russian mobsters. I wouldn't presume their capabilities to be beyond Mossad's, that's for sure. Also, this article is pretty careless about its sourcing, but with a little bit of digging you'll see these strange deaths and disappearances of Iranian nationals abroad, particularly high ranking scientists and academics date back as early as 2005. I don't have the research in front of me, but just in terms of what I've personally read over the last few years, this Leak isn't so much new information as it is CONFIRMING old information that's been swirling around.
I think we're looking at this in the entire wrong light. It's not a threatening boogeyman PsyOp AGAINST Iran, it's a US EXPOSURE (And thus instant shut down) of a major Israeli national security policy. If this is a hit against anyone, it's against Israel, and if anyone is to gain from it, at the top of that list would be Iran, as I see it anyway.
Why would the US do this? To show Iran that not only will Obama SAY we don't want regime change, but he'll take CONCRETE steps to shut down ISRAELI plans for regime change. The significance of this must not be underestimated.
OK, so that's super lame of me to just throw that out there and say "No, trust me I've read it before." I'm going to get some sleep and then actually do the research and write something up about this.
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