The Latest from Iran (10 September): Who Fits Where?

NEW Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday’s Prayers
EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised


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1955 GMT: The Youth and Student Section of Mehdi Karroubi's reformist Etemade Melli party have condemned the acts of the judiciary and security forces with the arrest of Mousavi’s and Karoubi’s advisors. The section declared that these actions in the run-up to Qods Day (18 Sept.) not only will fail to cause fear in people but will encourage them to attend the epic demonstration on that day.

1815 GMT: There is a bit of a buzz about a letter from the noted political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader, proclaiming that Iranians will celebrate the "decline of religious despotism".

1740 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has expressed support for Mir Hossein Mousavi’s “Green Path of Hope” as a manifesto for the liberation of Iranians from the "defective cycle of tyranny".

1735 GMT: Still don't believe there is a foreign-directed effort at "velvet revolution" in Iran? Well here, courtesy of Raja News, is the super-duper, multi-colour chart (with arrows) to prove it.

1730 GMT: Norooz, which was down earlier today because of an "Internal Server Error", is back online.

1440 GMT: An EA correspondent clarifies our 1415 GMT entry on newssites linked to Mehdi Karroubi: "Saham News is back to posting new items, while tagheer.ir is a site that was set up some 7-8 months ago during Khatami's President candidacy."

1425 GMT: Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, has said that if Mehdi Karroubi cannot establish his claims of detainee abuse, he should be tried on criminal charges. The source is significant because Bahonar had been a vocal foe of the President during the debate over the Cabinet.

1415 GMT: There are reports that staff of Mehdi Karroubi have set up an alternative website to replace the suspended Saham News/Etemade Melli party site. The alternative, tagheer.ir, has similar content and approach to that of Saham News.

At the same time, it appears that the Norooz site, a key source for recent news is down because of "Internal Server Error". Before it went down, the site was disputing the Government's denial of its list of 72 people killed in post-election conflict and reporting that the memorial for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, which the Government had tried to block, had been held at the family home.

1345 GMT: Amnesty International says it has reports that Caspian Makan, the fiancé of Neda Agha Soltan, who was shot and killed by Basiji militia on 20 June, has been released from detention.

1330 GMT: Report that Zohreh Ashtiani, a reporter with Saham News, the Etemade Melli party's website, was arrested and her house searched. A later report says she was released after 12 hours of questioning.

0940 GMT: Just back from an interview with BBC World Service Radio on President Obama's speech on health care (the audio is now up for the next 24 hours). Not much breaking in Iran.

And, confirming our  0800 GMT post, it appears that Iran, apart from The Bomb, will stay off the agenda for most international media. A CNN anchor has just posted their editorial call: "Iraq blast/Afghanistan/India stampede/Mex hijacking/Turkey flood/Taiwan Cabinet/world cup". Yep, the US match with Trinidad & Tobago beats out any consideration of the Government crackdown. (No, the CNN website never did mention the arrest of key Mousavi and Karroubi advisors like Alireza Beheshti.)

0815 GMT: Josh Shahryar has posted "The Green Brief" for Wednesday, including the essential correction that he gave us (0655 GMT) on yesterday's statement about those breaking the law by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

0800 GMT: The New York Times, which had been doing quite well of late with Iran coverage, decides to indulge in peripheral hysteria this morning. Michael Slackman, Nazila Fathi, and Robert Worth, each of whom has some knowledge of Iran as something more than Islam and bombs, give way for David Sanger, who knows what was told to him by the most recent "Western diplomat" or Administration official. So today, it's another recycling of the superficial and misleading claim, "U.S. Says Iran Has Ability to Expedite a Nuclear Bomb".

(Superficial because "ability to expedite a nuclear bomb" is vaguery bordering on linguistic nonsense. Misleading even in the caveats in the article: "a rapid, if risky, sprint for a nuclear weapon" is shorthand for Iran either does not yet have or has not pursued the capability to convert low-yield uranium into highly-enriched uranium in practice, rather than theory. Thus, "the new intelligence information collected by the Obama administration finds no convincing evidence that design work has resumed."

All swept away because someone told Sanger something on his way to the office to file a story: "In interviews over the past two months, intelligence and military officials, and members of the Obama administration, have said they are convinced that Iran has made significant progress on uranium enrichment, especially over the past year.")

Perhaps Sanger might write, for his next not-exactly-an-exclusive, "Ohmygod, Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All!"

0655 GMT: With a slow morning for breaking news (which is tempting fate, since we said the same thing yesterday and then faced a torrent of afternoon development), we have posted an analysis, "Retrenching before Friday Prayers". And we've taken time to give a breaking story, featured in The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, the respect it deserves: "EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All".

There is, however, one significant development or, rather, a  correction of a development. We updated yesterday on the interview of the head of Iran's judiciary, "Has Larijani Jumped Behind Ahmadinejad?", because we read his condemnation of those "outside the law" as  a reference to the opposition. Indeed we posted in our last update, The New York Times, drawing from Fars News Agency, was highlighting Larijani's phrase “great costs to the Islamic system”.

Josh Shahryar has had a close look, however, at the interview as it appeared on Radio Zamaneh. Read on its own, it is unclear who is being targeted by this passage:

Some had tried to call the elections fraudulent and attempted to stray outside "the circle of legality". [Larijani] said that law-breaking had become rampant and it had been observed in the aftermath of the elections how such actions had inflicted a great cost on the Islamic regime. He said that these violators shouldn't think that they're not being watched and the Judiciary should pursue the perpetrators of any such law-breaking legally.

However, the ambiguity evaporates when the previous paragraph is added: "Judiciary Chief Sadegh Larijani today said that what had happened in the detention centers had inflicted a huge blow on the standing of the regime. He said that the Judiciary would pursue these violations carefully and vigorously."

Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday's Prayers

Iran: Mousavi Statement on Arrests of Top Opposition Advisors
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised


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0445 GMT: Wednesday was a retrenching day for most parties in the Iran conflict. The Supreme Leader, inevitably, kept a low profile ahead of his big appearance on Friday at prayers in Tehran. We are none the wiser as to whether he is aligned with President Ahmadinejad's aggressive crackdown on the opposition, is catching up with moves he did not anticipate, or is manoeuvring for position between factions within the Establishment.

Ahmadinejad's Government, meanwhile, played the international actor by presenting its proposals for the next steps on Iran's nuclear programme to the "5+1" powers (US, UK, Russia, China, France, and Germany). The paper will soon be kicked back to Tehran as insufficient and even irrelevant; within hours of its presentation yesterday the ever-present "Western diplomats" were leaking to ever-present media channels that they were not happy with a sketchy five-page outline that dealt more with general global issues than with verification of Iran's nuclear status.

The most visible move came from the Green opposition via Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement reacting to the arrest of his aides and those of Mehdi Karroubi in the raids of the previous 48 hours. On its own, this was a "hold the line" statement: keep calm, keep alert, don't be intimidated. The best way to read it, in fact, is next to Mousavi's previous statement for the "Green Path of Hope", set out just before the Government move against his offices and staff. That statement, in addition to its call for a social movement of protest, outlined nine steps to be taken to restore Iran's political, legal, religious, and social integrity.

Karroubi, meanwhile, kept a low profile, possibly as a tactical measure, possibly because it has been enforced by the shutdown of his media outlets, and former President Khatami also made no intervention. (Nor, apart from the Green movement, did Hashemi Rafsanjani, pop up.) Instead, the chatter was about the ripples from Sunday's meeting of prominent clerics in Qom, which including several Grand Ayatollahs. It is not definite but probable that the gathering spurring Ayatollah Golpaygani's letter to the Supreme Leader criticising the Cabinet, which brought a firm rebuke from Khamenei, and an invitation to Ayatollah Sistani, the leading Shi'a cleric in Iraq, to discuss matters.

How much space do they have to manoeuvre? On the Government side, the most curious development was an interview with the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, with criticism of those who acted "outside the law". We initially read this as a possible alignment behind Ahmadinejad, interpreting Larijani's outsiders as the opposition. There is, however, a question mark over this, with some Iran-watchers seeing Larijani's statement as a reference to the security forces and military who abused detainees at prisons like Kahrizak. We will update on this later today.

EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All

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UPDATE 0635 GMT: Ohmygod, this must be totally true because the editorial page of The Washington Post just said so . How do they know? Well, because of thorough investigative reporting which ventured as far as down the street: "The opening of Venezuela's banks to the Iranians guarantees the continued development of nuclear technology and long-range missiles," Mr. Morgenthau said in a briefing this week in Washington at the Brookings Institution. "The mysterious manufacturing plants, controlled by Iran deep in the interior of Venezuela, give even greater concern."

So says Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau in The Wall Street Journal:

With the groundwork laid years ago, we are entering a period where the fruits of the Iran-Venezuela bond will begin to ripen.

That means two of the world's most dangerous regimes, the self-described "axis of unity," will be acting together in our backyard on the development of nuclear and missile technology. And it seems that terrorist groups have found the perfect operating ground for training and planning, and financing their activities through narco-trafficking.

The Iranian nuclear and long-range missile threats, and creeping Iranian influence in the Western Hemisphere, cannot be overlooked.

Now this statement has angered some old Lefties, like a Mr Robert Dreyfuss of the scandal rag The Nation, who is pictured at right because he looks a bit like a Communist:

This is both creepy and conspiratorial, with almost no facts, and full of rhetoric and dark insinuations.

Picky, picky Mr Dreyfuss. Because we know that it is a trait of devious Marxist-Islamofascist-terrorist-New Axis of Evil bad people to put words like "evidence" and "proof" as obstacles before assertions which are undoubtedly true because we say so.

We have no doubt, therefore, that the jurisdiction of the District Attorney now encompasses not only part of New York City but also Iranian nuclear facilities and that he has obtained the authority to conduct extensive investigations in Caracas. We are not distracted by the inconvenience that the District Attorney has never presented a single document in court to establish an Iranian-Venezuelan connection, because this is, as Morgenthau say, "information developed by my office" and no doubt kept in a super-secret sugar jar underneath the office coffeepot.

And we dismiss any flimsy Leftie challenges that the District Attorney seems to be investigating a Persian Gulf country with no nuclear bomb, linked to a Latin American country with no nuclear bomb, rather than a Middle East country with at least 150 nuclear bombs receiving billions in military aid from a North American country with loads and loads of nuclear bombs/planes/ships/submarines/missiles.

Because Evil is as Good says. Deal with that, you lover of Mr Chavez Ahmadinejad Marx Stalin Hitler Michael Moore.

Middle East/Iran Inside Line: Israel Presses Ahead with Settlements, Tehran Draws Line on Nuke Talks

The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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Israel Pushes Ahead with Settlements: On Friday, a senior Israeli government source reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would approve the construction of hundreds of new housing units in West Bank settlements before he declares a moratorium. Significantly, these "hundreds of houses" are beyond  the 2,500 housing units currently being built.

The Israeli source claimed that Netanyahu informed U.S. officials weeks ago of his decision to authorize the additional construction. The White House, however, "regretted" the reports:

We regret the reports of Israel's plans to approve additional settlement construction... Continued settlement activity is inconsistent with Israel's commitment under the road map.

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas called Netanyahu's planned approval of the West Bank construction as "unacceptable", and Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said the new construction has been criticized by all 27 EU ministers.

Iran Draws Line on Nuke Talks: On Friday, Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Ali Asghar Soltanieh, accused the United States of using "forged documents" to make its case that Iran is building nuclear weapons:

By interfering in the work of the IAEA and exerting various political pressures, the government of the United States attempted to spoil the cooperative spirit between the Islamic republic of Iran and the IAEA... The government of the United States has not handed over original documents to the agency since it does not in fact have any authenticated document and all it has are forged documents.

The agency didn't deliver any original documents to Iran and none of the documents and materials that were shown to Iran have authenticity and all proved to be fabricated, baseless allegations and false attributions to Iran... Therefore, this subject must be closed.

MediaFail: How (Not) to Approach Iran's Nuclear Programme

The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet

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Al Jazeera English are usually at the forefront of international media, both for analysis and crisis coverage, but they let viewers down with Riz Khan's discussion yesterday of the Iranian nuclear programme.

Part 1 (Part 2 after the rest of the analysis)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsRwFY3YSDg[/youtube]

Dr Martin Navias of King's College London had an abundance of cliches about "the West" and "wiping Israel off the map" but a scarcity of knowledge about Iran. Soraya Sepahpour-Ulrich was more lucid but, working from Navias' opening remarks, used her time to punch him (and "the West") on the nose rather than advance the conversation.

Predictably, the chatter soon descended into who is worse with its real or alleged nuclear weapons, Iran or Israel, and whether "the West" and/or Iran is valiant or dangerous. Beyond this, there was no consideration of the "5+1"talks in Germany yesterday on the Iranian programme, no attention to the complexities of Iran's current foreign policy, and no comprehension of the relationship between that policy and internal events. (Attention to this internal situation was limited to the hyperbole-stirring, "Should the West intervene?", which brought a predictable denunciation from Sepahpour-Ulrich.)

As my grandmother would have advised, "If you can't say nothing good, don't say nothing at all."