The Latest from Iran (7 September): Countdown to 18 September Begins

NEW Iran Urgent: Mousavi HQ Raided by Security Forces
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
Iran’s Victims: The 72 People Killed in Post-Election Conflict
Iran: Resistance and Music – New Shajarian Song “Language of Fire”
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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2030 GMT: No Criticism Here. Press TV's website writes out the admonition of the Supreme Leader to President Ahmadinejad and the Cabinet to take heed of "benevolent criticism" (see 1830 GMT). Instead the report emphasizes Ayatollah Khamenei's declaration about the legitimacy established by the election, “The nation and the Islamic Revolution have proven their republican nature. If officials, elites and political experts understand this fact, many of the country's problems will be resolved."

1930 GMT: Is the Regime Targeting Leaders' Children? That's the question asked by one of our readers, who noticed the arrest of Atefeh Emam, the 18-year old daughter of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Chief of Staff, Javad Emam, who is still detained himself. She was reportedly released earlier today, after 24 hours of continuous interrogation, near a Tehran cemetery.

Earlier in the crisis, the regime arrested several members of the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and pressure has been placed this week on the son of Mehdi Karroubi.

1830 GMT: Khamenei Manoeuvres. In a line which is not that far from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy criticism of the President, the Supreme Leader has advised Ahmadinejad and his Cabinet: "There is internal criticism backed by foreign media with the aim of sabotage but there is also benevolent criticism which may not come from supporters of the government but they contain good comments."

1710 GMT: Clerics Warn Ahmadinejad. The reformist Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom have issued a statement warning that the regime cannot be maintained with military force, arrests, and brutality.

More intriguing, however, may be a finger-wagging at the President from the "conservative" Society of Militant Clergy, their first intervention in the post-election crisis:

We ask the president and the government to seriously try to solve people’s problems and the country’s economic and social issues, and avoid talking about unnecessary and provocative issues. The comments made and the disrespect committed in the debates, speeches and rallies before and after the election caused divergence.

The Society criticised the opposition for pursuing demands "outside law", but it also called for "consoling" those harmed in the unrest.

Possibly Relevant Fact: One of the members of the Society is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1645 GMT: A Norooz News article, featured on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page, says that:

"Security Forces attacked the Staff office of Mir Hossein Mousavi which was resposible for following the issues of the detainees, without any legal premisson. All documentations were confiscated and taken out to... an unknown destination. As Staff members asked for receipt, security forces answered that no documents will be given back, thus there will be no receipt !!"

(Thanks to Mike Dunn for covering, as I was stuck in traffic when this came through. We have posted as a separate entry, cleaning up some of the text and adding a brief analysis.)

1430 GMT: We've been watching since reports came in yesterday of a meeting in Qom between Grand Ayatollahs Golpaygani and Makarem-Shirazi. Now the website of the Green movement, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that there were several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics, including Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, in the discussion of "practical steps against the coup government", after receving letters from political and social activists.

1340 GMT: Fars News reports that Press TV will soon air a "roundtable" of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on the causes of their "change of attitude and intellectual development".

1130 GMT: We're here but it is a very slow day, with little breaking on the political front.

There is one story that catches the eye. According to Tehran Bureau, via a source, the revelations of the abuses of detainees in Kahrizak Prison cames from a photographer for the Supreme Leader.

The well-known documentary maker and photojournalist, who recorded the eight-year Iraq-Iran war and became a ‘Sacred Defense’ photographer, was arrested during the post-election unrest and taken to Kahrizak where he was abused and tortured. After his release, he informed Ayatollah Khamenei about jail rapes and prisoner abuse. When the Supreme Leader expressed disbelief, the man revealed that he was one of the victims: "What they did was inhumane and in violation of all human rights… When they did those things to me, in my eyes it was you who was doing them."

Soon after this, Khamenei ordered the closure of the notorious detention center.

(The photojournalist was one of the cameramen who made Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign films, although it is unclear if they played any part in his arrest. He has also worked on a documentary about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.)

0850 GMT: If the BBC was paying attention, rather than trotting along with the notion of Iran's Nuclear Programme Above All Else (see 0820 GMT), it might have noticed these comments from President Ahmadinejad in his press conference, directed at the opposition movement:

The election and post-election events was victory of Iranian nation's morality against immoralities. The other victory of Iranian nation was success in removing contamination from Revolution.

0840 GMT: Rafsanjani Speaks. A small amendment to the end of today's analysis, "The large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared." The former President said, at a ceremony to commemorate Ayatollah Ali Qoddousi, Iran's prosecutor general who was killed by Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) in 1981:

It is a vital need of the Islamic Republic and establishment to find a way to strengthen national unity and establish peace in the country. In the recent events, the sides should act in a way which will guarantee national unity.

Small amendment, indeed, as the statement just repeats Rafsanjani's cautious, hold-the-line comments that we evaluated in mid-August.

0820 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times does another good job this morning, picking up on the Khatami statement and Mousavi letter (though missing Karroubi's moves) that we've highlighted all weekend and in today's analysis. The Washington Post also mention Khatami and Mousavi but hide the impact by tucking them away under a headline on an older story, "Iran Canceling Major Ramadan Events in Wake of Election Protests".

CNN are nowhere to be found, preferring to go with "Chavez Pledges Closer Ties with Iran". Al Jazeera also gets distracted by the Venezuela dimension. Even worse at the BBC, which falls for the Iranian President's "Look Over There!" trick, "Tehran 'ready for global talks'".

0800 GMT: We heard about this story all day yesterday and are keeping a close eye on it (any information would be welcomed):

A group of Revolutionary Guards have resigned from the force according to Hosein Hashemian, an Iranian lawmaker. Mr. Hashemian told Parleman News Website that the unacceptable interference of the Revolutionary Guards in political matters has caused a rift in the force.

The story of resignations, including those of unit commanders, has been about since the start of the crisis, and more than 30 Islamic Revolution Guard Corps members have been arrested.

However, at this point without further confirmation, I am treating this as a bit of "psychological warfare" from the opposition to unsettle the Government. In particular, it is part of the fightback against the recent statements of the Revolutionary Guard's chief commander, General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see our separate analysis today): Hashemian called for Jafari to be detained for his claim that former President Khatami and other reformists were trying to "unseat" the regime.

0655 GMT: We've spent the morning on two special pieces. First and foremost, Josh Shahryar of Anonymous Iran's "The Green Brief" has spent hours translating into English, from the list provided by the Iranian website Norooz,  the names and descriptions of 72 people killed in post-election violence. Given that regime figures like high-ranking member of Parliament Alaeddin Boroujerdi have been trying to deny there is any evidence for the deaths, we think this is a vital document of record.

The second piece is an analysis, after a weekend of opposition statements, of the current political situation and the question of whether the Green Wave is moving towards a high-profile display of resistance on Qods Day, 18 September.

The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?
Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
Middle East/Iran Inside Line: Israel Presses Ahead with Settlements, Tehran Draws Line on Nuke Talks
The Latest from Iran (5 September): A Quiet Phase

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2000 GMT: Psychological Warfare. Unsurprisingly, the Fars News story that Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali is the subject of an arrest warrant, due to a financial dispute with the mobile phone company Irancell, appears to be a bit of fiction to shake up the reformist movement.

The specific claim is that Ali Karroubi is connected with Persian Telecom, which failed to carry out advertising obligations for Irancell. However, Irancell has told Saham News, connected with Karroubi party's Etemade Melli:

Mr. Ali Karroubi does not hold any shares in Persian Telecom....The two companies have a business association in the form of purchasing Irancell products and selling them and therefore no advertisement is done on behalf of Irancell by Persian Telecom. (Translation from Tehran Bureau)

1925 GMT: The Reformist Fightback. A series of reformist members of Parliament and clerics have been striking back at the comments of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps commander, General Ali Mohammad Jafari (see 1730 GMT), all day. The latest is Hojatoleslam Alikhani, a cleric and MP, who has emphasised that the military should not enter political issues.

1920 GMT: The Battle for the Universities (Cont.). Iranian newspapers and the Islamic Republic News Agency report, “The Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies [has been] tasked by the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council to revise the human sciences curriculum."

The head of the Institute declared, “In our country a large part of the syllabus… is not in line with our Iranian-Islamic culture. This calls for a revision." The syllabus will be revised
“based on the supreme leader’s recommendations.” (Agence France Press has an English summary.)

1730 GMT: Pursuing the Revolutionary Guard. Following up our last update yesterday, The Assembly of Combatant Clerics had responded to the claims of Revolutionary Guard Commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari, alleging that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists have tried to "unseat" the Supreme Leader and Government, by filing a formal complaint against Jafari and Keyhan newspaper for publishing lies and insulting several members of the Assembly.

1725 GMT: Responding to claims by Deputy Head of Judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, that he had not presented any evidence of detainee abuse in his meeting with the three-member panel investigating the claims, Mehdi Karroubi has described three documents that he presented.

1715 GMT: Hey, Look Over There! According to Press TV, the Supreme Leader gave visiting Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez a quick international lesson on Sunday: "The US had far greater failures in the Islamic Republic of Iran than in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Palestine. A power has been formed in this region which was once regarded by the US as its courtyard."

Surprisingly, the article offered no reference by Ayatollah Khamenei made to Iran's internal situation.

1440 GMT: Regime Goes After Karroubi. Fars News reports that an arrest warrant has been issued for Mehdi Karroubi's son, Ali. The cause of the action is a financial dispute involving one of Iran's largest mobile phone companies, Irancell, for whom Karroubi's company was supposed to sell phone cards. The amount involved is almost $2.5 million.

Nice touch, by the way, for Fars to use this as the illustration for the story:


1305 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarising the events of Saturday is now out.

1255 GMT: As the regime pushes its campaign for a "proper" academic sector (see 0740 GMT), former President Khatami held his own discussion with the Islamic Association of University Teachers. He pointedly challenged both the Supreme Leader's call on academics to be the commanders in a war against "Western" soft power and last Friday's prayer address in Tehran for a "non-Western" approach to humanities. Khatami expressed his opposition to those who in the name of fighting western liberalism, were forcing people to follow their path by employing fascism and totalitarianism ideologie and warned the authorities to start rebuilding public trust before all the opportunities are wasted."

1015 GMT: Business as Usual. Deputy head of judiciary Ebrahim Raeesi, who seems to be the regime's "hold-the-line" guy on detentions and prosecutions, declared Saturday that the replacement of Saeed Mortazavi as Tehran prosecutor by Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi will make no difference to the current approach: “The trials will continue and we will do our best so that the rule of law is upheld and justice prevails."

1010 GMT: Methinks He Doth Protest Too Much. Presidential spokesman Aliakbar Javenfekr is a bit upset at the claim, highlighted by Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bohanar (see Friday's updates), that up to six of the Ministerial nominees only got approval after the Supreme Leader's intervention of a letter to Parliament: "This was not an order at all but a consultative and friendly view which compelled the lawmakers to work more tolerantly with the government." Bahonar was "insulting the lawmakers who through their independent, conscious, and intelligent vote helped establish a powerful, efficient government".

0850 GMT: The three-member judiciary panel investigating allegations of detainee abuse has said that Mehdi Karroubi has formally submitted the names of four detainees who will appear before the panel if invited.

0810 GMT: We've split off our opening update on the reformist fightback as a separate entry, "How Important is the Mousavi Statement?"

0800 GMT: No, No, It Ain't So. The head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, is insisting that the claims of 72 deaths in post-election violence are "questionable, given the fact that no detail on the identity of the victims has been present".

We linked Friday to the Farsi-language site Norooz, which has collected the names and descriptions of the dead, but we're hoping to help Mr Boroujerdi later today with an English translation of the list.

0740 GMT: In recent days, we've been updating on the regime's statements linking academia and the "proper" post-election path in Iran, including the Supreme Leader's address to heads of universities and research centres as "commanders" of the fight against foreign "soft power" and the statement in last Friday's prayers in Tehran warning against "Western-style" instruction in humanities.

Today The New York Times has an excellent article by Robert Worth today, "Iran’s Universities Punish Students Who Disputed Vote". Drawing from Iranian website, it not only notes the arrests and summoning for questioning of politically active students but also writes that "a presidential panel has begun an investigation of the humanities curriculums at universities".

The lengthiest passage, however, summarises the academic and political fight around Islamic Azad University:

Significantly, several clerics and high-ranking officials have taken aim at Islamic Azad University, which is based in Tehran and has branches around the country. The university is largely run by the family of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a powerful moderate and leading opponent of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“This university must once again be purified,” Ayatollah Muhammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, the president’s spiritual adviser, said during a meeting with new cabinet members, the Rouydad Web site reported. “This purification must occur at the management level and other levels. You see just how many who do not believe in religion, Islam and God have attended and graduated from this university.”

Another cleric, Muhammad-Reza Babai, called for the new minister of higher education to review Azad’s management charter, during a Friday Prayer sermon in the central city of Kerman. The new minister, Kamran Daneshjoo, has also accused Azad of failing to meet standards.

Iran Special: Taking Apart the Regime's Defenses (Shahryar v. Afrasiabi)

The Latest from Iran (1 September): The Ripples of Debate Continue

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Earlier this month, The Huffington Post featured a lengthy opinion piece from Professor Kaveh Afrasiabi, insisting on the legitimacy of the Presidential election and, beyond that, of the Ahmadinejad Government. While The Huffington Post is a high-profile outlet, I declined to reply to Afrasiabi. I had seen his polemical attack on Professor Ali Ansari in a Press TV discussion just after the election, and his arguments on the election had been put forth two months earlier by Flynt and Hillary Leverett and Seyed Mohammad Marandi.

Josh Shahryar (the creator of The Green Brief, one of the outstanding sources in this crisis) did respond, however, with a through dissection of Afrasiabi's assertions. We recommend this not to take sides in a fight but to illustrate how it is possible to marshal information, carefully and thoughtfully, for an analysis and an opinion with political impact. And, even as we are engaged in debate with "mainstream" journalists over the value of new media and Internet sources, we note that Shahryar's reading of events --- based on a network of contacts developed via the Web and Twitter as well as his thorough consideration of emerging news --- is far beyond that of much of the "established" broadcast and print media:

As a journalist who has been covering the Iranian Election, almost every day for the past two months from my puny little computer, I was shocked and dismayed when I read Kaveh L. Afrasiabi’s article on the Iranian Election Crisis. Published in The Huffington Post on August 20, 2009 and titled “Obama Should Congratulate Ahmadinejad,” the article urges President Obama to accept the outcome of the election and congratulate Ahmadinejad on his victory.

It must be pointed out, that throughout his article, Mr. Afrasiabi misrepresents the truth, omits key details, and at times simply presents inaccurate or false information to support his point of view. Fortunately, we live in a time of ‘information overload’ where the truth is easy to find, and we all know that there are always two sides to any given story.

Unlike Mr. Afrasiabi - who fails to mention on his Huffington Post profile that he has been a staunch supporter of Ahmadinejad for years - I concede that I have been drawn to the plight of millions of Iranians. I am an insignificant ‘International Green’ who supports Iranians in their struggle to obtain their rights. After reading Mr. Afrasiabi’s article, I had no other choice than to write a response – and I do so as an admirer and supporter of the Sea of Green – not as a representative.

Extracts of Mr. Afrasiabi’s article are included - without any touch-ups or rephrasing below in italics. My comments, rebuttals, and what I believe to be the “whole story” follow the extracts.

AFRASIABI: There are several good reasons why president Barack Obama should join his White House guest this week, Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak, as well as the UN's Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, and dozens of other world leaders who have extended congratulations to Iran's duly re-elected president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Not to do so reflects a poor judgment on the White House's part, particularly since Obama has yet to fulfill his own post-election promise of responding to Ahmadinejad's letter that congratulated him for his victory.

Contrary to what was stated, neither UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, nor President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt has congratulated Ahmadinejad. Mr. Ban Ki-Moon did send a letter to Ahmadinejad after the elections. His spokesperson, Marie Okabe, later clarified that the letter should not be construed, in any way, as congratulating Ahmadinejad. According to Ms. Okabe, “The letter takes advantage of the occasion of the inauguration to express the hope that Iran and the United Nations will continue to cooperate closely in addressing regional and global issues." She went on to add, "It is not accurate to refer to this as a congratulatory letter."

In regards to Mr. Mubarak, the Presidency of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s website did report, three weeks ago, that Mr. Mubarak had sent a note to Ahmadinejad congratulating him on his re-election. However, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry has since denied the report. Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hossam Zaki’s response to the media about the story was, “I cannot confirm the authenticity of the report.” Furthermore, Arab League Secretary General, Amr Moussa’s act of congratulating Ahmadinejad cannot, in all honesty, be considered as an endorsement by Arab League Members – including Egypt.

Iranian media and government-run websites have claimed that the Japanese Premier, Taro Aso, has also congratulated Ahmadinejad. However, it comes as no surprise, that this report cannot be confirmed either.

Notwithstanding the above, there indeed have been some world leaders who have congratulated Ahmadinejad. A closer examination, however, reveals that out of the two dozen or so congratulatory notes, the majority were sent either by countries without a democracy or by heads of countries that do not wish to upset Iran’s Supreme Leader – given their geographic proximity and strong regional interests.

It is ludicrous to think that the leaders of China, North Korea, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, UAE, Syria, Qatar and Tajikistan would be, in any way, concerned about the fairness of an election. Let us not forget that the above-mentioned countries are dictatorships, strong-arm monarchies or have national leaders whose own elections were considered controversial.

The countries of Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lebanon, Armenia and Iraq fall into the second category of “not wanting to upset Iran’s Supreme Leader.” Turkey - because of the Kurdish issue; Lebanon - to appease Hezbollah; Armenia - because Iran is one of the few neighbors with which it has friendly relations - and Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq - because their interests strongly demand good relations with Iran, regardless of the leadership.

This leaves out Brazil, India, Russia, Venezuela, Indonesia, Yemen and Hamas-held Gaza. As for countries such as Japan, Nations in the EU bloc, Australia, New Zealand and Canada – all countries that rank at the top when it comes to democracy – none have congratulated Ahmadinejad. Thus, Obama’s refusal to send a congratulatory note actually shows sound judgment on his part, as he heads a Nation that is a world-leader in democracy.

AFRASIABI: First, with the dust of the post-election turmoil settling and the absence of any hard evidence of "rigged elections" becoming more and more transparent, time is actually on the side of Ahmadinejad, who has been much vilified in the western press, and maligned at home by his reformist challengers, as the grinch who "stole" the election.

Unfortunately, the sum of evidence presented by Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to corroborate their allegations of widespread fraud in the June 12th elections simply doesn't add up. This author has examined in depth both the official complaints of losing candidates, as well as the various reports issued by their "truth committee", and has found them to be dreadfully lacking in substance, contradictory, and thick on irrelevant innuendo, such as passing off such pre-election "irregularities" seen in television debates as evidence of election fraud.

The description of, “‘the dust of post-election turmoil settling” baffles the mind. The Iranian people have been protesting at every opportunity - in spite of an extremely high security presence. They have been shot at, beaten, tear gassed, imprisoned, tortured, and in many cases brutally killed. How has the dust settled?

In late June, thousands gathered at Ghoba Mosque and around Tehran. Thousands more turned out, facing the brutality of the security forces on July 30th. Hundreds were chanting in support of Karroubi, in front of Etemaade Melli’s office less than two weeks ago, although he explicitly asked them not to. Nightly, people chant “Alloha Akbar” from their rooftops, despite the threat of being shot at, fined, arrested or imprisoned. When the opposition calls for a protest, the people of Iran protest, not only in Tehran. We must keep in mind the thousands that gathered around the country, whose voices cannot be heard because of the government’s media blackout. The claim that, “The protests are over,” can only be made, IF and WHEN:

* Protests are no longer illegal; meaning that people can protest without the fear of reprisal
* Opposition Leaders call for a protest
* No one shows up

The truth of the matter is, if there are no “grand protests,” it is not because people don’t want to protest, but because the opposition has not called for one.

Regarding the claim, “The elections were not rigged,” the mere fact that "defeated" candidates and reformist politicians – and their followers - were not the only ones to have cast doubt on the results should merit speculation. Many others have challenged the validity of the results, including former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who expressed his doubt during his sermon at Friday Prayer’s, as well as Khatami, who released a statement calling for a “referendum” over the issue.

For the sake of argument, let us set aside for a moment, that the previous Supreme Leader Rohullah Khomeini and the current Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamanei are dictators in the guise of religious sanctity. Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani are all two-term heads of the Iranian Government. Even if we discount Mousavi as a stakeholder in the election, dismiss Khatami as a reformist, what about arch-conservative Rafsanjani? Then again, these people are politicians and you never know what Rafsanjani might be hoping to gain from this.

Then what about a class of Iranian leaders who have little to nothing to gain by questioning the legitimacy of the government? Where do the clerics stand? In case anyone missed their comments here is what they have to say:

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