Iran Election Guide

Donate to EAWV





Or, click to learn more

Search

« Transcript: George Mitchell on Obama-Abbas-Netanyahu Meeting | Main | Enduring America on the Road »
Tuesday
Sep222009

The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

IRAN GREEN
1520 GMT: EA's Mr Johnson goes over the Rafsanjani speech, adding to and correcting our earlier analysis.

While there is no open challenge to the Government, Rafsanjani's call for unity includes recognition and inclusion of those senior clerics who have offered criticisms: "A measured thoughtful approach can lead to an optimal solution for the problems....The help and support of the Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs ) for the Establishment is absolutely necessary. In the last 30 years we have never had a problem in this regard and hopefully in the future this will not happen again. Threats must stop and small problems that must not be allowed to cause rifts [between the establishment and Marjas]."

Then Rafsanjani manoeuvred behind the general chiding of Ayatollah Khamenei of conflict:  "The Supreme Leader has condemned the atmosphere of defamation and confrontation that currently exists....All of us officials must pay attention to these issues so that this atmosphere does not get worse."

This led to the key passage of Rafsanjani's strategy of resolution which EA noted earlier: "Currently experienced and concerned individuals of the establishment are in the process of designing a blueprint providing a solution for the current situation....Considering that the University academic year will start soon, these efforts can be very useful, and we must reduce opaqueness from the atomosphere of society and refrain from opaque acts...so that an atmosphere for constructive criticism of society can be created....The supreme leader has emphasized the importance of the law, therefore both officials [a.k.a the Goverment and the Revolutionary Guards] and the protesters must act according to law."

And so Rafsanjani's manouevre without direct reference to the issues of detentions and abuses: "Both the officials and the protesters must not expect indifference if they break the law, since lawlessness breeds chaos in society...The supreme leader has also emphasized that the right of people to defend themselves [from accusations] must be observed [and] has prohibited broadcasting the confessions of accused individuals....If any member of the media broadcasts a confession accusing others [that broadcast] is against the law  and must be prosecuted. The fact that certain members of the media [irresponsibly] publish whatever they choose is against the law and should be dealt with."

Mr Johnson also clarifies and corrects our earlier report --- it was Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (not  Mesbah Yazdi) who was absent a very well-attended session.

1105 GMT: Speculation of Day. According to witness accounts, members' turnout at the Assembly of Experts meeting was the highest ever, but the Vice Chairman, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, was absent.

1045 GMT: 1030 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani statement, as presented by ILNA:

As expected, it is very clever and very cautious, with interpretation left to the beholder. Rafsanjani upheld the greatness of the Iranian nation on Qods Day, as the "holy and glorious presence" of marchers make clear that the defense of rights would never be forgotten. Iranians were ever-ready to stand up to "imperialists" and their "psychological warfare" trying to reduce Iran to "passivity" ahead of negotiations. The priority for Iranians was the "unity of our country".

Nothing there to separate Rafsanjani from the Government, especially as the call could be read as defiance of the "West" in talks on Iran's nuclear question. And the former President's reference to the recent assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly was a call to support the security forces and judiciary as they investigated and prosecuted such crimes.

But what of the security forces, and the Government behind them, in the post-election conflict? Ahh, there's the rub: there's no obvious reference by Rafsanjani on that key matter, leaving his audience --- whatever their position on and in the issue --- in suspense.

1030 GMT: Gary Sick offers an excellent analysis of a recent poll of Iranians regarding the election and its aftermath. EA's Chris Emery adds his own take:
I think there are some statistical anomalies with the poll and major methodological problems- there is a perception that the government routinely tap phones and this will affect people's responses to some degree. There was also a very high refusal rate amongst those called (52%).

In many ways its greatest signficance lies in how it has been read. Those, especially in the West, who cry foul on the methodology will be to some degree influenced by their refusal to accept the unpalatable truth that Ahmadinejad is undoubtedly popular amongst millions of Iranians. On the other hand, I would never use this poll as a litmus test for support within either camp. The situation is simply far more complicated and the dynamics of the current power struggles cannot be accurately drawn out from this poll.

In sum, it is more interesting to watch how it is kicked around as a political football than as a genuine indicator of the relative strength of either Ahmadinejad or the Green's position.

0945 GMT: The spin is coming in on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Assembly of Experts meeting. The Iranian Labor News Agency links a call for unity with a declaration that resolution is imminent: "Those who care about the Regime have devised a plan to get out of current situation."

0915 GMT: The "Western" media are running with "news" that President Ahmadinejad has claimed that "his country is now stronger than ever and warned that Iranian military will retaliate with full might against anyone who dares attack it".

This is not news. If Ahmadinejad had told those assembled for the military parade commemorating the 1980-1988 Iraq War that Iran was really weak and its military hopeless, that would be news. The story, however, will set up tomorrow's coverage of the UN speech: Big, Bad Ahmadinejad and the World That Must Confront Him.

Of course, it's not like Mahmoud isn't helping the portrayal: “Our armed forces will cut the hand of anyone in the world before it pulls the trigger against the Iranian nation,” Ahmadinejad said during a military parade marking the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war.



0415 GMT: All very quiet in Iran in the last 24 hours, apart from some rumblings over the position of Imam Khomenei's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomenei (see yesterday's updates). The regime will roll out a two-day setpiece ,with the presentation of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati in a televised "roundtable" to discuss how the velvet revolution has been pursued against Iran. And Press TV has an intriguing story, given President Ahmadinejad's attempts to ensure a "proper" bureaucracy responding to his wishes, of "the first of the post-presidential-election diplomatic appointments of the Ahmadinejad government...being implemented with new ambassadors lined up for European countries".

But it appears that we are in the midst of a 72-hour diversion with President Ahmadinejad presenting himself as undisputed leader in front of the United Nations General Assembly. He will speak at about 5 p.m. New York time (2100 GMT) on Wednesday. This will get sneers and denunciations from most of the "Western" media, but mainly over his references to Israel and possibly Iran's nuclear programme. Iranian state media will hail the pride of the nation in their President on the world stage.

Opposition activists are pinning hopes on a show of protest, with Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page laying out a schedule of events. At the risk of being a jaded cynic, I'm not sure there is enough attention to the Iran issue in the US now to generate a high-profile demonstration, at least on the Iranian internal issue. (There will undoubtedly be protests from pro-Israel groups, but I'm not sure how this will intersect with the Green wave.)

All this said, there is one prominent wild card in the deck. Iran's Assembly of Experts, chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, holds its regular (but delayed) meeting today. Will the former President use the occasion to make his challenge, supported by other members, to the current regime? Or will he maintain his cautious line of vocal support for the Supreme Leader but no direct attention to the Ahmadinejad Government? And what will be the dynamic beyond Rafsanjani?

References (6)

References allow you to track sources for this article, as well as articles that were written in response to this article.
  • Response
    Terrific page, Continue the very good job. Thanks.
  • Response
    EA WorldView - Archives: September 2009 - The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York
  • Response
    EA WorldView - Archives: September 2009 - The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York
  • Response
    EA WorldView - Archives: September 2009 - The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York
  • Response
    EA WorldView - Archives: September 2009 - The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York
  • Response
    Response: visit site
    EA WorldView - Archives: September 2009 - The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York

Reader Comments (132)

@ Samuel

You are giving me extra hope. After yesterday I knew for sure that it is now a matter of time before reform takes place and Iran changes greatly but your mails give me even more hope that it will happen even sooner now.

If this goverment and this used to be Velayate Faghih is not even able to arrest a now nobody like khatami for saying the things u claim he has said. WOW how weak is this S.L than.... If Khatami can really say those things and get away with it then the end is really much closer then i even hoped.

So is raping little innocent boys and girls and beating them to death really the best they can do... not even able to arrest Khatami for openly saying they want secularism and want to end the Velayate Faghih.....

A bottle of champagne for Samuel folks... he brings great news today....

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

@ Arash

Samuel is very grumpy today, who would blame him after yesterdays events. he knows its over.

Most chances are he is the son of a Bassiji or an Guard studying in europe or his ex Guard father workd in one of the Iranian Embassies in Europe. Either that or a Pakistani/ Arab being poluted by this corrupt goverment solely because of their common hate for america.

Usually he is worth answering as he atleast brings up some intresting input from the other side, but today he is same as he was last night extra bitter and edgy. But then again can u blame him after the news yesterday, he must be gutted ?

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

@Afshin
I wouldn`t go so far to call his statements interesting, how should I put it, for the lack of better words; propaganda for the regime, and you`re probably right, he is most likely the son of an Ex-guard.

@Samuel
"My opinion on the crackdown is clear. It was justified because the oppositon wanted a velvet type revolution where the SL was overthrown.
" How do you justify rape and torture, please answer me that. the opposition wants to change iran for the better. So I guess in your words it was right of the Shah to put the military in against the protestors who wanted to overthrow him

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterarash

@ arash

what i mean with intresting is that we get a look in the mind of a man that says it is ok to murder, rape and burn the bodies of young innocent childeren because they have a diffrent political view then we from the Basij and the Guards do.

We then see how they justify this and are allowed to take a peak in their way of thinking. Samuel really feels that murder, rape and torture are ok to do and he even may believe that god (if there is one) will actually offer them extra virgins once they are in heaven

I think this is a view you cant get just like that, the readers of EA are blessed to have one like Samuel speak here in good english, he is like a test study. Like the Serial killers, mass rapests etc.. add to that that Samuel is from a dying breed. more and more Basij and Guards are seeing the light... So we should be thankfull.. He and the like like him are the reasons for the world to never stop fighting this regime... Some will see the light like the most are doing now and some may go down with the ship. I really hope athe Samuel will be enlightend before it is to late for him...

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

@afshin
rest assure; sooner or later SL will be gone and we`ll be sitting in tehran sippin tea and eating chelo kabab:)

a question for you Afshin, the september 6th meeting held at Sanei`s house, where several grand ayatollahs met for discussing steps against the government, any thoughts about the outcome of that meeting or what they agreed on. Could the result of that meeting be what Hashemi was talking about in AE, the plan for gettin us out of this current crisis

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterarash

@ arash

I doubt the details were set up at that level and so open. Chances are they talked about the situation and their take on things, what needs to be done and so on and so forth.... but I dont think they would talk about the details of the blue print there....

Ps. After my chelo kabab and tea.. i think I am heading to "Darband" to order my self and who ever cares to join me a cold glass of beer.... what do you think my chances are...?

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

@afshin
I`ll join you for a cold glass of beer. SL and AN, their days are numbered.

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterarash

Arash,

I've always said that the rapes are not govt. policy. If the've occurred it is because there are sadists in Prison. If it were govt. policy it would be the dumbest most stupid policy ever. But if it makes you and afshin feel any better you should spread the rumor that it was/is AN personally doing the raping himself.

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSamuel

@ Samuel

Now you are just being a bad loser. It is common sense that when these sort of crimes happen in the country the leaders are held responsible;

- These crimes have happened systematically
- They have happened to prisoners just asking where is my vote
- They have happened by the BASIJ and the GUARDS
- Nor the S.L, nor the Judicary nor the President have tried finding the truth
- Infact they have done their best together with the Guards to hide the evidence

You want to stick your head in the sand please do. But dont expect the world to turn a blind eye as you do...

Mind you folks he is just saying the RAPES, the Torture and Murders are fine...

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

I find it funny that you folks argue with a moron.... Do you really believe he will see the light of day? I tell you a fact, that a trusted source I have known all my life was forced to examine girls who were about to be executed for their virginity. Once discovered they were virgins, they were immediately raped before execution by the Pasdaran. Does Samuel know any of these facts?

Samuel, we know that Mr. AN gets his fix from his ministers.. His penchant for hooloo is well documented. I think he need not venture to prison to get his fix, cause he has his own cabinet close by.

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterwhereismyvote

@ Samuel (who's background I'm increasingly intrigued by- but who's perspective I think has an important place on this site)

I think the portrayal of Mousavi et al as counter-revolutionaries understanably makes the brutality meted out to them a lot more morally palatable. I think this rationale made it easier for white southernes opposing the civil rights movement- 'these people hate everything I stand for and want to tear down America'. Ditto South Africa.

If I'm honest, this is not helped by those whose hubris seems to have got the better of them and believe that the people are about to storm the SL's office and destroy the foundations of the IRI. That's not going to happen.

I agree with Hamid Debashi- what we are seeing in Iran is not revolution but a civil rights movement. The basic freedom that Samuel enjoys, as someone not living in Iran, are simply not available to people who may or may not be his countrymen.

That problem transcends the unrest provoked by the election. The primary crisis within the legitimacy of the revolution is not the election- it is that the regime is failing to guarantee basic rights or tolerate dissent any better than the Shah. That was always the basic test for the revolution.

Samuel can dodge the issues of the protest by charactering it as a national security threat- I would like to see him successfully engage on some of the pre-exisiting conditions which has provoked this civil rights movement.

As an example- this is a site that is strongly affiliated with a prominent UK university. It is often extremely critical of British foreign policy and its politicians. If he called for the abolition of the monarchy he would not get a knock on the door from the vice chancellor!

Can Samuel point me towards a similar site operating in a climate of total academic freedom from a Iranian university?

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterChrisE

The father of Mohsen Rouholamini is a former Basij. He truly knew what his son endured and his heart was crushed like his son's face.

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

@ whereismyvote

Like I said to Arash, see him as a test case. Like a mass rapist, mass murderer on Death row, writing why he did it. It is intresting to see how he thinks, what his beliefs are and why he feels this undeniable urge to stand with killers, rapists and thieves. Its quiet intresting actually,

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

All,

Our resident Basij Brother is probably posting from the US, most likely NY/NJ.

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterThomas

How nice for Samuel,
At the safety and under the sanctuary of American constitution, one can be brave to say and do what they want. AN looks almost attractive when sanitized and removed from ones day to day life. A romantic anti hero that is sticking his finger at the super power evil America. One can even justify and love much of what he says and does. Except that in Iran we have to suffer and live under this mad man's rule. We have to put up with his economic mishandle, with the price of meat at 17000 tomans (17 dollars) and the price of a basic car at 16000 dollars. For all your huppla Mr. Samual, come and survive a month in Tehran and we shall see how nice your Basiji brothers are to you.

I too wish I was in NJ working a 9 dollar an hour job flipping hamburgers and have a subsidized apartment and health care curtsy of other tax payers, or better yet an academic scholarship from Iran to study in USA and then I too would have the luxury of romanticizing AN.

I unfortunately have to sign off today and go and struggle to survive, cause a lunatic has made a social experiment in my country, he has swindled the economy, has given away my sovereignty to Russia and sold much of the manufacturing industrial base to China. He has a bunch of uneducated morons running the government, that only know how to operate an Aftabeh and the flush of Mostarah. Who see their religious piety in wearing smelly socks and a three day beard while smelling of sweat. They see the beating and raping and torturing of innocent masses as the license for entry to heaven )or rather university in the short term) and above all they are in direct contact with god through his levy on earth call the supreme arse licker Khamanei

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterwhereismyvote

whereismyvote
Your point is very strong, so a couple of corrections won't take anything away. The most important part is freedom. Nobody protesting in New York today will get bludgeoned by police or get dragged off to jail (assuming no violence or property damage).

We're working on the health care thing-- not everybody has it. Only those who are excruciatingly poor get housing subsidies. A basic new car here would cost 16000 dollars or more, but it's likely that people here have more dollars. If I got 17 dollars worth of meat, most of it would have to be put in the freezer. It would take some time to eat that much.

Again, your point is strong. We have interesting ideas about life in each other's countries.

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

In Iran the very poor have no health care, none, no housing subsidy, except the cardboard subsidy, and hence zero protection, and 17 dollars buys you one Kilo of meat (2.2 LB). 16000 dollars buys you a 20 year old design of a car, made in Iran with over 250 known safety issues that you have to pay 100% cash upfront for. The same car costs 8000 in Venezuela and Syria, cause Iranians have to subsidies the Gazan's, the Lebanese and the Pasdaran / Basiji classes of Iran. In the US, that same 16000 dollar car will be the latest design, you could readily finance it, and it has no known manufacturing defects, cause the government has some level of consumer protection. It does not catch fire and burn when over 40 Celsius.

Health care in USA, as bad as it is, can only be dreamed of in Iran. As for the protest and have rights, well AMY as a person privy to this discussion I know how much you are aware. You know that even the sons of Marjah and Martyrs of the revolution have no rights (Montazari / Beheshti) an average Joe does not even register to them in Iran as a human.

P.S. Thanks very much for the correction, cause without it we all will remain ignorant. I appreciate your feedback greatly. I need to hear it.

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterwhereismyvote

@ whereismyvote and Amy

One important Side note, regardless of what the quality of the car is, Average salary in US is about 35.000 USD per year, in Iran it is about 6000 USD. Knowing that a 16000 USD car in Iran has a whole diffrent Value... Add to that that Real state in US is actually CHEAPER then in Tehran....

So comparing 16000 USD in US with 16000 USD in Iran is no comparison !!!

In one scenario its 6 months pay in the other 3 years pay....

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

Also the financing. It's rare for someone in the US to "pay cash" for a car (pay the whole price upon purchase). Most new cars here are more expensive,,, at least $20,000, often more. I was pretty sure our salaries are higher in relative terms.

I have read that inflation in Iran is 20%. Is it still the case?

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

well I think the average is something in the mid 30 thousands.
Inflation is wel above 20%, the official numbers are around 20 but in reality it is much higher latley.

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

AN will blow up the economy if he continues to try to fix the problems with monetary policy. Printing money and revaluing currency can only go so far. His buddies aren't running their businesses so well & the black market isn't good for inflation

September 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

[...] Amy on The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York [...]

[...] Afshin on The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York [...]

All the speculation about my background is quite amusing. Is he a son of a Basij or Guards member? Is he flipping burgers in the States? Has he lived in Iran??? Has he visited Iran??? Does he live in a "democracy" enjoying its fruits? Is he related to Michael Jackson or the Spice Girls???

A few points. I've noticed that many Iranian pro-reformists are terribly bigoted and rascist when it comes to Arabs. One post not too long ago even referred to Arabs by using a slur (which the moderators removed) having to do with towels. You read it in many of the emigre web sites, comments about "arabization" taking over since the Revolution opressing the superior non-Islamic true Iranian culture.

You hear comments such as "of course the people are going to rise up against the dictator, we are not (slur) arabs. And of course there were all the fascinating rumors during the crackdown about AN and the Basij importing Arab mercenaries (Hezbollah) from Lebanon or Iraq (Sadr folks) to beat up true patriotic Iranians. The basij beating up the people couldn not really be Iranian right? Everyone getting hit by a club seemed to be overhearing Arabic being spoken.

Then there are all the comments about AN not bathing and being "filthy" and the common coupling of "filthy" again with the word Arab. You hear it in the comments here about smelly govt. officials and "smelly socks".
This is the type of language often heard about Arab and Muslim immigrants among racists in Europe.

Why is this significant? Because all of the speculation on my ethnic identity as well as the identity of supporters of the Revolution revolves around the fact that we could not possibly be truly "Iranian". We are either (slur) arabs or arabized Iranians, therefore not truly Arab.

The crack about the flipping burgers ties into this. Why couldn't Samuel be an engineer or an architect instead of flipping burgers? Again the association with a lower class status such as those associated with Arab immigrants. Fascinating.

I'll tell you what else is fascinating. At the grassroots the student rioters in Northern Tehran are folks who conciously identify with white Westerners either Europeans or Americans. Their goal is to overthrow the backward, primitive, arabized Islamic state, its SL and its dirty president. The country is to be replaced with a western style, white democracy that can go back to looking down arrogantly on the colored, inferior Arabs.

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSamuel

Samuel
I don't remember seeing negative comments about Arabs here. About you, if you look again you'll see that people were speculating that maybe you are a student in Europe or the US. In the US, students commonly get jobs flipping burgers. It's a typical comment about somebody who is in college

I'm not saying there haven't been ethnic comments here, but I haven't seen them. Maybe you are reading more into the smelly socks than is really there? We have such jokes in the US, but they aren't tied to a particular race or class... maybe just about someone who is disliked. Or someone's kid brother ;)

September 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>