The Latest from Iran (29 November): Iran's Nuclear Bluff

2055 GMT: No Big Deal for Engagement. Iran's declaration of plans for "10 enrichment plants" changes little in the political equation. Here is the statement from British Foreign Minister David Miliband:

We have stated over and again that we recognise Iran's right to a civilian nuclear programme, but they must restore international confidence in their intentions. Instead of engaging with us Iran chooses to provoke and dissemble. Iran can flaunt its isolation but this will only increase the calm, determination and unity of the international community. I urge Iran to recognise this, and to accept the outstretched hand on offer.

2020 GMT: A Holiday from Protests. Pedestrian has noted the Government's sudden declaration that schools will be closed on 14 Azar (5 December) and that Government offices must give employees the day off if they wish. As 15 Azar (6 December) is already a holiday for Eid-e Ghadir, Pedestrian summarises:

This means that on Monday, 16 Azar, the day of the student demonstrations, many students will be away on holiday. Workers and employees will not able to take some of the day off having just gotten back after a 4 day holiday [Thursday --- some government offices, all universities and some schools are closed on Thursdays --- Friday, Saturday and Sunday]. More importantly, this will also mean that the crucial days before the demonstrations, all schools will be closed and students will not have the chance to do last minute planning.

This is not a new trick: I recall that, earlier in the post-election crisis, the Government also offered a last-minute holiday before one of the mass gatherings.

NEW Today’s Iran Non-Story: Some Guy Who Looked Like Ahmadinejad Protested in 1984
NEW Video: The Mothers of Martyrs Protest (28 November)
NEW Iran: The Routes of 16 Azar
Iran’s Nukes: Obama’s Team Buys Time for Engagement
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The Latest on Iran (28 November): Turning Attention Back to Tehran

1944 GMT: Advar News has posted a story and photographs of today's protest at Tehran University.

1930 GMT: Sigh. After the rush of of political manoeuvring this morning, little news coming out from inside Iran. Instead, the "Western" media has gone viral over the "10 enrichment plants" story (see 1635 GMT). This is understandable, as it fits the narrative of devious Iran.

It also ignores the political dynamics: this is the logical (if ham-fisted) symbolic response to the "third-party enrichment" deal, keeping the uranium stock inside Iran. It ignores the technical issue that Iran does not have the uranium supply to keep its primary enrichment facility at Natanz 100% busy, let alone 10 more (see 1645 GMT).

And, perhaps surprisingly, the media are not even reflecting on their shock-horror claim that Iran is making this move to control the process of 20% enrichment for its medical research reactor. That's a civilian use of uranium, a long way from the "Iran is on the verge of military capability" narrative.

1700 GMT: Nukes Plus Internal Situation = A Challenge? And while everybody watches the Parliament and Government strike their poses, here comes Hashemi Rafsanjani. The former President has used a speech today to twin the latest on the nuclear issue with a swipe at the internal situation. After criticising the IAEA resolution, Rafsanjani declared that "street violence is caused by the lack of an atmosphere of free criticism".

1645 GMT: Why the Government Response is a Bluff. While Western media quickly seizes on the Government's declaration of 10 new enrichment plants, consider this: the immediate problem for Iran is not enrichment capacity but the lack of uranium stock. The response to the IAEA resolution means little unless Tehran can establish new lines of uranium supply.

1635 GMT: The Nuclear Response. The Parliament appears to have established its challenge not only to the "West" but to President Ahmadinejad. It has approved a resolution asking Ahmadinejad to submit plans for reduced interaction with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

However, the most recent development indicates that the Government will not have to be pushed, at least in the symbolic short-term. Iranian state television reports that the Government, declaring that it will ensure the production of 20 percent uranium for civilian use, has approved plans to build 10 new uranium enrichment plants. The Iranian nuclear agency has been instructed to begin construction on five plants, with locations for five more to be established over the next two months.

1630 GMT: Report that university lecturer, journalist, and activist Dr. Fayaz Zahed has been released on bail after 80 days in detention.

1325 GMT: Fighting the Velvet Revolutionaries. The Iranian Parliament passed a law today earmarking $20 million to "support progressive currents that resist illegal activities by the governments of the US and Britain", to "confront plots and unjust restrictions" by Washington and London against Tehran, and to disclose "human rights abuses by the two countries".

The proposal of the $20 million was tabled months ago, and there had been reports that up to $50 million would be sought.

A committee with representatives from Iran's intelligence services, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Foreign Ministry, and the communication and culture ministries will oversee the funds.

1140 GMT: Today's Media Iran Low-Light. The Mail on Sunday in Britain has a classic non-story about someone who is probably Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who protested in London in 1984. We've bowed down to this journalistic triumph in a separate entry.

1115 GMT: We've posted a video of yesterday's weekly gathering of the "Mothers of Martyrs" and sympathisers at Laleh Park in Tehran.

1023 GMT: More Detainee Testimony. An EA reader follows up the account of a detainee in Evin Prison (see 0805 GMT) with the letter from lawyer and human rights activist Heshmatollah Tabarzadi to the Supreme Leader. The reader has kindly provided an English translation on a video featuring the letter, which details abuses of detainees.

0813 GMT: Half the Story. Press TV has posted the Ali Larijani comments denouncing the IAEA resolution on Iran's nuclear programme (see 0755 GMT):

If you keep up this ludicrous carrot and stick policy, Iran will make 'new arrangements' in its interaction with the Agency. The resolution passed by the Board of Governors shows that we must be more alert when considering their proposals. This motion shows that they had no intention whatsoever to negotiate a solution but were engaged in "political chicanery”.

No mention, however, in the Press TV article that Larijani has been a determined foe of the Government's strategy and that this could be part of a broader Parliamentary challenge to President Ahmadinejad.

0810 GMT: We've split off our first update of the morning, "The Routes of 16 Azar", as a separate analysis.

0805 GMT: EA readers point me to the account of a detainee who spent 21 months in Evin Prison for political activities, "Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter Here".

0755 GMT: Here Comes Larijani. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who has been hostile toward a nuclear deal to the point of challenging President Ahmadinejad, told Parliament today, "If the West continues to pressure us, then parliament can review Iran's cooperation level with the IAEA."

More important than any threat to suspend inspections or even leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty is Larijani's growing confidence. The IAEA resolution is a boost for him, as it helps him play the nationalist card against a Government that has been eager to engage with the "West", especially the US.

Indeed, if I was playing cynical politics, I would suggest that continuing the threat of sanctions and denouncing Iran's motives is a way to build up an alternative to President Ahmadinejad, especially as Larijani has been linked to an even bigger post in a National Unity Plan.

But Washington can't be looking that many moves ahead, can it?

0745 GMT: Brazil Says No Sanctions. A quick post-script on the International Atomic Energy Agency resolution on Iran's nuclear programme: Brazil's ambassador to the IAEA is making clear that his country stands against harsher measures, as sanctions "will only lead to a hardening of the Iranian position". Brazil abstained in the IAEA vote.

The South American country has no seat on the United Nations Security Council, so the statement is more significant as an indicator that major countries outside the Council may stand back from any US-led effort to turn from engagement to confrontation.

Today's Iran Non-Story: Some Guy Who Looked Like Ahmadinejad Protested in 1984

Sometimes a media "exclusive" is beyond parody. This from The Mail on Sunday in Britain:

Did Iran's president take part in a demo during a brutal afternoon in London (or was it a man who looked exactly like him?)
By JASON LEWIS

The features are unmistakable, the fervour irrepressible as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad turns against a crowd of opponents.

Iran: How a Non-Story about a Non-Jew Became Media Non-Sense
The Latest from Iran (29 November): Larijani Making A Move?

But despite the uncanny likeness, officially this is not the President of Iran who oversaw the bloody suppression of his country’s democracy movement.

This picture was taken in London in 1984 and raises puzzling queries over Mr Ahmadinejad, 53.

Much of his rise to Iran’s presidency is shrouded in the secrecy which surrounds what has gone on in the pariah state since the Iranian Revolution in 1979 swept the late Ayatollah Khomeini to power.

Now this photograph, unearthed by The Mail on Sunday, suggests a young Mr Ahmadinejad spent time in London and took part in a notorious incident which demonstrated his and the Iranian regime’s repressive and sometimes violent nature.

The picture, first published by the Daily Mail on April 27, 1984, shows a smart-suited man on the balcony of the Iranian consulate in Kensington, his fist raised in a menacing salute as he harangues anti-Khomeini demonstrators in the street below.

The man, who reports described as a diplomat, had stepped on to the balcony hours after protesters opposed to the Islamic regime stormed the building as part of synchronised worldwide action.

As demonstrators burst in chanting anti-Khomeini slogans, consulate staff, including members of the notorious Republican Guard, locked them in the reception room.

According to reports at the time, and witnesses who spoke to The Mail on Sunday last week, the Iranian staff then returned in numbers, armed with wooden and iron clubs. Inside, the 11 unarmed protesters were taken prisoner.

Some reports suggested they were tortured to discover the names of relatives and friends still living in Iran.

The late investigative reporter Paul Foot said: "The protesters were bound, interrogated and beaten. Two were beaten unconscious. One recovered but could not lift his head because it was stuck to the carpet in congealed blood." He said the beating went on for seven hours. Then at 6pm, a diplomat, and it is unclear if this was Mr Ahmadinejad, appeared on the balcony and announced that the protesters had been "dealt with".

The demonstrators were then thrown out of the building with placards hung around their necks accusing them of being terrorists in the pay of the US and France. No one from the consulate faced charges.

Last week the Foreign Office said it had no record of Mr Ahmadinejad being at the Iranian consulate in the Eighties. The Diplomatic List for 1984 contains no reference to the name Ahmadinejad, which he adopted after his family moved to Tehran when he was a boy, or to his real name Mahmoud Saborjhian. Yesterday the Iranian Embassy added that it "didn’t think it was right" that he had ever been based in London.

Two people who took part in the protest, who spoke to The Mail on Sunday last week, also said they had no recollection of him that day.

Mr Ahmadinejad was also alleged to have taken part in the beating of American diplomats at its embassy in Tehran after it was taken over by students in 1979.

A photograph purportedly showed Mr Ahmadinejad escorting a blindfolded US hostage.

But the Iranians produced a picture of the President as a young man which appeared to look little like the hostage-taker.

We passed the picture to photo-analysis firm OmniPerception, who regularly aid police. It said: "A database of several thousand people was complemented with four recent images of the President. A comparison using the 1984 image was made. The result indicated the four pictures to be the most likely match of all subjects in the database. If this was a police inquiry, this would give cause for further investigation."

Latest Iran Video: The Mothers of Martyrs Protest (28 November)

Early in the post-election crisis, mothers of those killed and detained began gathering on Saturdays at Laleh Park in Tehran. Joined by sympathisers, they have continued to protest: yesterday about 150 people marched, despite attempts by security forces to disperse them with tear gas.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAubG59KZEk[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (29 November): Larijani Making A Move?

The Long War on Terror: Obama Administration Plays Politics with Guantanamo

This article from Nick Baumann at Mother Jones is filled with political-insider information, but I think it is a significant marker of how the closure of the Guantanamo Bay detention facility has moved from an Obama pledge in January 2009 to a site for internal Administration struggle in November.

I learned several weeks ago that the Administration's top lawyer, Gregory Craig, was going to leave or be pushed out the door, in part because his political position was fixed to the promise to shut Gitmo. I was always sceptical, given the politics of the War on Terror, that the deadline of January 2010 was going to be met, so it was no surprise that Craig would have to walk the plank.

Britain’s Role in Pakistan Torture: Video and Human Rights Watch Report

The broader issue is that we are now in a mish-mash of measures. There will be trials in the US for a few detainees (such as 9-11 planner Khalid Sheikh Mohammad) whom the Administration is sure will be convicted without the use of lost or discredited (i.e., obtained "via duress") evidence. There will be military commissions for about 75 detainees whose convictions cannot be assured. And the rest of the prisoners will remain in the limbo of a Guantanamo that is open well into 2010.

Liberals have not done enough public wrestling with Massimo Calabresi and Michael Weisskopf's Time article on the ouster of White House counsel Gregory Craig. Perhaps that's because they don't want to deal with the article's troubling implications. As Kevinexplains, Craig was "the White House lawyer tasked with dismantling Bush-era interrogation and detention policies. At first, Obama was on board with Craig's plans.  Then, reality set in."

By "reality," Kevin presumably means "political reality." Time says that as soon as Obama's positions on Bush era torture -- releasing the torture photos, for example -- became politically difficult, the president jettisoned them. He did this despite the fact that he had been "prepared to accept -- and had even okayed" those same positions "just weeks earlier":

First to go was the release of the pictures of detainee abuse. Days later, Obama sided against Craig again, ending the suspension of Bush's extrajudicial military commissions. The following week, Obama pre-empted an ongoing debate among his national-security team and embraced one of the most controversial of Bush's positions: the holding of detainees without charges or trial, something he had promised during the campaign to reject.

But perhaps the most damning part of the Time piece is this sentence, near the beginning, that summarizes exactly what has happened in Obama's White House:

[Obama] quietly shifted responsibility for the legal framework for counterterrorism from Craig to political advisers overseen by Emanuel, who was more inclined to strike a balance between left and right.

Take a minute to think about how the left would respond to this if Obama was a Republican president.

Obama delegated the responsibility for determining what to do about detainees to his political advisers. If George W. Bush had charged his political advisers, including Karl Rove, with crafting such policy, the entire blogosphere would have melted down from outrage overload.

Obama's actions here are deeply at odds with the public image he cultivated during his campaign -- idealist, civil libertarian, constitutional law professor, someone who rose above politics. You can claim that the president is a "pragmatist," and always has been, but Obama draped himself in idealism and principle during the campaign. The left always complained that Bush let politics drive his policy decisions. But in this instance, couldn't Obama be accused of the same thing?

Iran: The Routes of 16 Azar

The most interesting news last night was low-key but noticeable. In early evening details of the routes for the protests of 16 Azar (7 December) spread across Twitter. There were references to new student movements organised in recent days.

It is still more than a week before National Students Day, but I have a sense that precisely because of the Government efforts to stamp out any significant dissent, particularly through the arrests of student activists, that the efforts to ensure a mass turnout have re-doubled. This may also be fuelled by the determination to show that the movement is not dependent on statements and actions "from the top" but is ready to press its demands at the grassroots.

The irony is that, on National Students Day, there will have to many non-students who are also on the streets. If the Government can represent this as "only" the protest of trouble-makers at universities --- because students, free from jobs and responsibility, are always the source of mischief --- then it will have contained the challenge.

8 days to go.