Middle East Inside line: Israel's Nuclear Problem; Syrian Tensions with US & Israel

Israel's Nuclear Trouble: On Wednesday, at the United Nations conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the ~US, Russia, Britain, France, and China voiced support for making the Middle East a zone free of nuclear arms. There are two messages: one for Iran's nuclear programme and one for Israel's secret nuclear agenda.

"We are committed to a full implementation of the 1995 NPT resolution on the Middle East and we support all ongoing efforts to this end," the five permanent members of the UN Security Council members said in a statement. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukia Amano, in a letter, asked foreign ministers of the IAEA's 151 member states to share views on how to implement a resolution demanding that Israel accede to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and throw its nuclear facilities open to IAEA oversight.

Israel-Palestine: The Proximity Talks Starts Silently (Yenidunya)
Syria: A National Unity Government for More Democracy? (al-Assad)
Israel-Palestine Opinion: Discrimination in East Jerusalem (Eldar)
Israel-Palestine: Proximity Talks to Begin on Wednesday? (Yenidunya)

Syria-U.S. Relations at Odds?: On Monday, the U.S. renewed the six-year-old economic and diplomatic sanctions on Syria. In response Damascus criticized Washington harshly and said that the penalties reinforce hostilities in the region.



Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal Mekdad said the sanctions decision shows Washington has lost its credibility and failed to live up to its promises to Syria. "Obama is not serious about changing the relationship between the U.S. and Arab and Islamic states in the Middle East," Syrian officials said.

Hezbollah-Syria-Israel Triangle: On Tuesday, although there is still no evidence that Scud missiles were transferred to Hezbollah, the Israeli army's head of intelligence research, Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, told the Knesset that the Scud transfer was the "tip of the iceberg", .
"Even today Hezbollah has missiles of all ranges types, including solid-fueled rockets that have a longer range are extremely accurate."

Baidatz then drew the picture of a multiple threat:

Hezbollah's long-range rockets allow them to position launchers deep within Lebanese territory and cover ranges far greater than we aware of in the past.

Hezbollah in 2010 is very different to Hezbollah in 2006 in terms of military capability, which has advanced a great deal. Hezbollah is now regarded by the Syrians as a component of their defense establishment.

Lastly and paradoxically,Baidatz stated that a political settlement with Israel is still a priority for Damascus:

A political settlement with Israel is high on Syria's list of priorities and intelligence shows a will to reach an agreement – but on their terms, meaning a return of the Golan Heights and American involvement.

Military intelligence believes Syria could radically alter its role – but Assad feels that political progress with the current Israel government is impossible and has therefore avoided confidence-building measures.

Syria: A National Unity Government for More Democracy? (al-Assad)

Ribal al-Assad, the cousin of Syrian President Bashir al-Assad and the founder and director of the Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria (ODFS), has spoken to Der Spiegel. He criticized his cousin for being a "vassal of Iran" and stated that the international community should talk to Hezbollah and Iran's Green Movement to break up the "alliance" between Tehran and Damascus. He also pointedly called for change in Syria's political system:

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Syria has been able to improve its relations with the United States and Turkey in recent years. Is the country on the path from pariah status to partner?

Assad: Syria should not see it as a triumph. The US's new approach is a test. Syria needs to now prove itself. Damascus should not in any case imagine that it has received a green light from the international community to oppress people.


SPIEGEL ONLINE: Your cousin is Syrian President Bashar Assad. The two of you are greatly divided over the issue of democracy. Is he at all willing to democratize the country further?

Assad: He has promised to do so. But so far nothing has happened. The problem is the influence of Iran. Syria is today a vassal state of Tehran.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Should your cousin therefore break off relations with Iran?

Assad: Syria must act independently and should no longer be submissive or act subordinately. This can only succeed, however, if Syria has a government of national unity that can win popular support for the goal of more democracy.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: There were reports that Syria supplied the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon with Scud missiles. What do you know about this?

Assad: There is no proof and we should not speculate. So far, there have only been rumors about it. Hezbollah is not dependent on Syria, but on Iran. Hezbollah is part of the government in Beirut. They need to stop being a tool of Tehran. Iran uses Hezbollah to keep the war away from its frontiers. Hezbollah should know that Iran does not have good intentions towards the Arabs as Iran has a policy of expansion and destabilization in the Middle East.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: What could persuade Hezbollah to give up this alliance?

Assad: The international community should speak with Hezbollah and offer something in return for renouncing Iran, such as money for schools and hospitals, for example.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Many people in the West believe that Tehran is trying to develop a nuclear bomb. What can still be done to stop Iran?

Assad: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is very close to his goal and is not willing to give up now. The only hope is the "Green Revolution" (editor's note: the Iranian opposition movement). The international community must support the movement very patiently. Sanctions don't achieve anything. They only affect ordinary people.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Why is there still no peace agreement between Israel and Syria?

Assad: The precondition for that is Israel returning the Golan Heights to Syria. (Editor's note: Israel has occupied the Golan Heights since the 1967 Six Day War.)

SPIEGEL ONLINE: In other words, a compromise currently seems unrealistic.

Assad: The deal is land for peace. That is something that Israel will ultimately have to accept.

Middle East Analysis: Washington's Latest Stick for an Israel-Palestine Solution

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Friday she expects indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians to begin next week. However, this is not the end of the story.

Here is the Obama Administration’s most recent and biggest stick: an international summit run by the Quartet of Middle East peacemakers --- the United States, European Union, United Nations, and Russia --- to establish a Palestinian state if Israeli-Palestinian talks remain stalemated into September or October.

Israel-Palestine: The Golden Key to Proximity Talks? East Jerusalem (Yenidunya)

Why in September or October? First of all, Arab League foreign ministers are expected to demand that the negotiations show progress within four months. Secondly, the UN General Assembly will reconvene in late September. Thirdly, September is the first anniversary of Obama’s trilateral summit with the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Lastly, 26 September marks the end of the 10-month Israeli freeze on construction in West Bank settlements.


So what does this mean for Israel? Simply put, Washington says that West Jerusalem might find itself facing an internationalization of the conflict, moving hand-in-hand with insistence on a solution based international law and UN Resolutions 242 and 338. This means a shift away from the basis of provisions for Israeli self-defense to the  consolidation of socio-political institutions seeing the Israeli occupation as the heart of problems in the region.

Meanwhile, Washington is increasing its pressure on Israel. On Friday, a Palestinian source told The Guardian that the Obama administration would consider allowing the UN Security Council to censure Israel over its activity in West Bank settlements, encouraging the Palestinians to participate in peace talks. This would mean a US abstention on any resolution. The same source also reported that David Hale, the deputy to US special envoy George Mitchell, told Abbas that the Obama administration views Israeli construction in East Jerusalem as "provocative."

Will the Obama Administration be able to convince other countries to support these measures, despite Israel’s “sensitive” bilateral relations with Russia and France? Washington may find ground if it presents this as an approach to not only the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but also other regional problems, such as Iran’s nuclear programme, Hamas-Fatah reconciliation talks, and Israel’s relations with Lebanon and Syria.

If the Obama Administration is really serious in its warning, this is more than welcome for the Palestinian Authority as it will decrease pressure on the PA in the Weskt Bank.  However, Palestinians are unlikely to welcome an international conference if they cannot get more than “gestures” from the Netanyahu Government.

Arab countries will take a similar position. The London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi has already reported that Syria is opposed to the Palestinians returning to the negotiating table because "Israel has not made enough gestures of good faith, and in light of the fact that senior officials in Israel have been sounding threats against Damascus and Beirut".