Middle East Analysis: Russia's Strategy on Israel, Palestine and Beyond

On Wednesday, during a visit to Ankara following meetings with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Hamas Political Bureau Chief Khaled Meshal, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reiterated Moscow's Middle East policy. Both Russia and Turkey stated that the International Community must deal with Hamas due to the party's support from the Palestinian people in the 2006 elections and called on Hamas and Fatah to unite.

In February, Meshaal had been welcomed in Moscow. So latest Medvedev’s meeting is another step forward helping Hamas build strategic relations in the international arena.

Turkey Inside Line: Ankara & Russia Press Israel on Hamas Issue

As for Moscow, the move is filling the space left by Washington. Unlike the US inability to approach the problems of the region by connecting them, Moscow is showing its willingness to treat Middle East actors in a complicated and inter-linked context. This includes Iran's nuclear technology, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the challenge of Palestinian unity dilemma, and the triangle between Israel, Iran, and Syria.


Moscow is investing directly in Hezbollah through Syria and Iran, but now it is moving directly over Hamas. The Kremlin urged the Gaza leaders to release the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and to move towards reconciliation with Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah within the framework of the Palestine Liberation Organization.

Finally, Moscow's latest gambit in Syria posed another challenge for Israeli officials. Medvedev said that the Middle East must be free of nuclear arms, otherwise the situation could lead to a regional or even global catastrophe.

Israeli decision-makers have tried to manipulate Russia's involvement in the region, asking it not to sell S-300 missiles to Iran in 2008 and to halt the sale of advanced MIG-31 fighter jets to Syria. West Jerusalem also sees a "finishing role" for Russia on sacntions against Iran, leaving China in isolation on the issue.

Russia, in response, agreed to the Israeli demands on military deliveries to Iran and Syria but is still holding its card on sanctions. The recent visit to Syria and the second round of its direct investment in Hamas are extra bargaining points.

Syria? As a country accused of transferring weapons to Hezbollah, recently re-sanctioned for another year by Washington, Damascus got a breather with Medvedev's visit and his proclamation of Syria as  "one of the most important political centers of the Middle East. Two cooperation agreements in the fields of air services and information and communication technology, two agreements on technical, scientific, and environmental cooperation, and a joint work programme to implement cooperation on tourism cooperation were also signed. According to Stratfor, Russia also signed agreements to sell the Syrians MiG-29 fighters, Pantsir short-range surface-to-air missiles, anti-aircraft artillery systems, and anti-tank weapons.

After Israeli criticism in February, the Kremlin said that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was the highest-level official Meshaal would meet. Its ambassador assured West Jerusalem that the Meshaal visit did not signal a swing in Moscow’s policy toward Hamas, and he said that Lavrov would reiterate that the Islamist movement must abide by conditions to recognize Israel, give up violence, and honour past peace accords.

This time, the Israeli Foreign Ministry slammed Medvedev's call to involve Hamas in the Mideast peace process and likened the organization to the Islamist Chechen rebels. In response, Andrei Nesterenko, the Russian foreign ministry spokesman, said in a statement:

Hamas is not an artificial structure. It is a movement that draws on the trust and sympathy of a large number of Palestinians. We have regular contacts with this movement.

It is known that all other participants of the Middle East quartet are also in some sort of contact with Hamas leadership, although for some unknown reason they are shy to publicly admit it.

Turkey Inside Line: Ankara & Russia Press Israel on Hamas Issue

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Turkish President Abdullah Gul, speaking in Ankara, dared to raise a sensitive point for Israel: the inclusion of Hamas into indirect talks. Gul said:

Nobody should be excluded when these talks are held. Unfortunately the Palestinians are divided in two. They must be united and to unite them there must be talks with both sides. The Hamas side won elections in Gaza and so cannot be ignored.

When Turkey talked [with Hamas] it faced threats but it emerged that Turkey was right. You cannot achieve peace by excluding people.

Turkey Inside Line: Opposition Leader Resigns, Turkish-Russian Relations & More
Israel Analysis: The Expansion of Construction in Jerusalem

Medvedev added, "We are facing a human tragedy in Gaza."


Both leaders saw practical advantage in their emphasis on "the necessity" of Hamas's inclusion in Washington-brokered talks.. The bargaining power of both Russia and Turkey can be strengthened in the Washington-Tehran-Tel Aviv triangle and the Damascus-Tel Aviv relationship.

During his visit to Syria, Medvedev talked to Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal and told him to reach a settlement in the Gilad Shalit case, freed the detained Israeli soldier quickly.

Turkey Inside Line: Opposition Leader Resigns, Turkish-Russian Relations & More

Ali Yenidunya launches his new feature picking up and analysing the key news from Turkey:

The Opposition Leader Resigns: The leader of the main opposition party Republican People's Party (CHP), Deniz Baykal, resigned from his post on Monday. The purported reason is a video clip allegedly showing him having sex with a party deputy, Nesrin Baytok. According to the claim, her husband Can Baytok helped this forbidden relationship so his wife could become a member of Parliament. Baykal, during his press briefing, called thevideo a two-week-old "conspiracy" and added:

I will never let anyone question me due to this immoral and unlawful conspiracy. If it has a cost and if it is to resign from this chair, I am ready to pay it. My resignation does not mean a surrender to this cowardly conspiracy against me, you and CHP. Indeed, it is a challenge!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfVaALhtTro[/youtube]



Then Baykal accused the government of waging a smear campaign:

It is impossible to prepare and release such a two-week-old, tough conspiracy work encroaching rights and morality of the main opposition party's leader without government's information and approval. The "good will" and statements of "sorrow" showed following the incident will never cover up the guiltiness of the work backstage.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded:

Statements of Deniz Baykal are ugly and unequal. They are political defamation-oriented. Charging the offense on the government is immorality.

The counter-reply came from the spokesman of CHP, Mustafa Ozyurek:

Mr. Prime Minister gave such an ugly response. We are facing a prime minister who cannot comprehend an honourable man's honourable move. Mr. Baykal, in his talk, said "The lawbreaker stand up" and the lawbreaker stood up!

Mr. Prime Minister says that they tried to prevent the dispersion of the video. This is false. The clip was tried to be prevented with efforts of the prosecution office; not of the prime minister! Even now, these ugly scenes are on internet.

The Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office has launched an investigation to determine who filmed the video and put it online. The Prosecutor's Office is working with the Ministry of Justice in order to determine the name or the IP number of the uploader on the website Metacafe. Assistance from Canada has been officially requested since the website is owned by Tucows İnc. in Toronto.

Within the CHP, some believe the video was uploaded to the Internet ito weaken the current party leader and administration ahead of the party congress on 22 May. Some CHP officials point at Şişli Mayor Mustafa Sarıgül, who established Turkey's Change Movement (TDH) after he was expelled from the CHP, reportedly over a disciplinary issue. CHP Secretary General Onder Sav claimed that Sarıgül bribed a gang leader to shoot Baykal in his legs during a visit to Brussels on 13 April. His claim is based on an e-mail sent to the İstanbul Police Department by an unidentified individual.

Moscow-Ankara Ties: Dmitry Medvedev, the President of Turkey's main gas supplier Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, is coming to Ankara from Damascus on Tuesday. "Some 25 agreements will be signed," the Kremlin's top foreign policy adviser Sergei Prikhodko said.

Agreements include an arrangement between Russian gas giant Gazprom and state oil firm Rosneft and a cooperation memorandum to build and service a nuclear power station. Most prominently, Moscow is trying to convince Ankara to build a section of its key South Stream pipeline through Turkey's portion of the Black Sea to create a new route bypassing Ukraine for Russian gas to Europe. Turkey, which supports the rival EU-backed Nabucco pipeline, has agreed to allow Moscow to start surveys in its territorial waters in the Black Sea for South Stream.

Erdogan's "3 Children" Proposal: The Premier, for a long time, has called on the citizens of the Republic to have at least three children. He restated at a wedding ceremony on Sunday:

Turkey's current population increase rate is 1.5 for some and 1.8 for others. This means that the population of this nation is getting older. And we are proud of our young population now. Therefore, this [growth] must be over 2.5. If it goes like this, our situation is not good in 2038. I am saying this as the Prime Minister. Maybe, we will put an award for this because we must succeed.

The Suspicious Link between the Murder of Hrant Dink and Ergenekon Suspects: According to Istanbul Police Department, six of 52 Ergenekon suspects, accusing of a conspiracy against the Government, had telephone conversations with the suspects of the Hrant Dink case. Dink, assassinated in 2007, was a well-known member of the Armenian minority in Turkey and editor of the Turkish-Armenian newspaper Agos.

The accused included Brigadier General Veli Küçük, lawyer Kemal Kerinçsiz, Levent Temiz, Mustafa Levent Göktaş, Erbay Çolakoğlu, and retired captain Muzaffer Tekin.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel-Palestine Indirect Talks; Syrian-Turkey Meeting

The Indirect Talks Begin: Following a session of several hours, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) on Saturday approved indirect talks with Israel. At the end of the meeting, Yasser Abed Rabbo, a member of the PLO committee, said: "As far as we are concerned, the start of the indirect negotiations can be announced today. The negotiations will take one form: shuttling between President Abu Mazen and the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu."

Washington welcomed Ramallah's decision. "It is an important and welcome step," US State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said.

Middle East Inside Line: Mitchell’s Talks in Palestine; Israel’s Official Perception of Peace

In contrast, Hamas's Gaza leadership denounced the PLO decision as a “stab in the back of our people” and said the organisation does not represent Palestinians.


On Sunday, following a meeting between the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and US Mideast envoy George Mitchell, top Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said that he hoped Israel would give the process a chance, rather than setting facts on the ground that will complicate the talks.

The indirect talks are scheduled to last at least four months.

The Turkey-Syria-Israel Triangle: On Saturday, Syrian President Bashar Assad was in Turkey to sign two cooperation deals with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, covering joint communications projects and border crossings. This is Assad's second visit to Turkey since last August.

In a joint press conference with Turkish counter Abdullah Gul, Assad said that Israel's hostile and uncompromising policy vis-à-vis the Palestinians undermines the Middle East peace process and added:

I do not think conditions are ripe for successful (Turkish) mediation, because Israel doesn't appear to be ready for peace. If there is even a one percent chance of war breaking out, we are working to prevent it.

Gul continued:

Syria has said it is ready to resume talks where they were left off. However, we have not heard from the Israeli side. It is up to them.

The Middle East peace process is the biggest problem in the world and the world should make a settlement of the conflict a number one priority. The region cannot take another war anymore.

What happened in Gaza two years ago was the last straw. No one in the world can condone or turn a blind eye on the repetition of such a thing anymore.

During a state visit to Moscow marking the 65th anniversary celebrations of the Allied victory over the Nazis, Israeli President Shimon Peres told Russian President Medvedev, who leaves Monday for a two-day state visit to Damascus, that he should “send him [Syrian President Basher Assad] a clear message: Israel is not interested in border escalation or a war, this is the last thing we want. We extend our hand in peace to Syria, but there must be one basic condition, Assad must stop his support for terror and stop trafficking weapons and missiles to Hezbollah.”