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Entries by Scott Lucas (146)

Friday
Jun042010

Iran Snap Analysis: The Meaning of Today's Khamenei-Ahmadinejad Show

Having watched President Ahmadinejad's speech live and the Khamenei commemoration of Ayatollah Khomeini on a two-hour delay, blogging the presentations "as live", my reaction is....

That's All There Is?

Latest Iran Video: Pro-Regime Crowd Shouts Down Khomeini Grandson (4 June)
The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?


The rhetoric for the setpiece was pretty standard, as was the crowd response. Amidst his presentation of glorious Iran v. the "West" and "Iran", the Supreme Leader made barbed references to the opposition --- even threatening execution --- but there was nothing new in substance. Nor was there any evidence that, beyond the attendance of the faithful in the shrine, there was mtuch spontaneous public support for the regime's hard line. (Certainly I struggled to see the "millions" that Press TV claimed.)


The Ahmadinejad speech was even less significant. He strained to claim legitimacy from the election, but the crowd response was pretty listless. Even among those, who would have been encouraged to attend because of their loyalty to the regime, it was hard to see the mass support that the President was claiming.

Indeed, the two distinctive developments pointed to ripples of trouble. The President's speech was marked not by those who attended but those who stayed away, i.e., almost anyone of political significance. And the supporters of the regime did it no credit when they shouted down the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, whose death was supposed to be the occasion of respectful commemoration.
Friday
Jun042010

Latest Iran Video: Pro-Regime Crowd Shouts Down Khomeini Grandson (4 June)

Pro-regime crowds shout down Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, as he tries to speak at the Tehran Friday Prayers marking the anniversary of his grandfather's death:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5WiMuFHa4Q&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?

Thursday
Jun032010

The Latest from Iran (3 June): Karroubi Video Message

2210 GMT: Made-Up Story of the Day? We close with a supposed "exclusive" (exclusive because no one else is reporting it) from Fars News. The website claims that Mehdi Karroubi was driven from the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini today by a crowd shouting, "Death to the Hypocrite".

Fars' visual support for the story? A picture of Karroubi from last year's Tehran Book Fair.

2115 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi has released a lengthy video message. We've posted the first of six parts below. You can also link to Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, and Part 6.

We are looking urgently for an English translation.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEn4cHR10rM&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

NEW Iran Document: Majid Tavakoli “The Will of My Nation Led to Victory”
Iran Document: Mousavi “Imam Khomeini, Revolution, and the Green Movement” (2 June)
Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad in Ilam “Where’s My Crowd?”
The Latest from Iran (2 June): Where’s My Crowd?


1800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says that, following the Supreme Leader's pardon of 81 detainees, a number of prisoners have been released. Still no names of those freed.


1650 GMT: Propaganda Corner. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran claims that Fars News has published a fabricated letter of resignation by Morteza Semyari, the secretary of the Cultural Commission of the student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat.

1645 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The sentence of 3 1/2 years in prison and lashes for journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad was confirmed earlier this week. The response of Nourizad, who has been imprisoned in part because of letters to the Supreme Leader?

He has written another letter to Ayatollah Khamenei before the Supreme Leader leads Tehran Friday Prayers this week: “The damage and harm that we (the religious government of Iran) have caused Islam and religious beliefs of the people is beyond the damage and harm throughout history."

1520 GMT: Reports are coming in that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard met representatives of Iranian women's organisations today.

1515 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. An admission.... As I tried to read the various political contender set up position for the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death --- with both the Supreme Leader and Mir Hossein Mousavi "claiming" Khomeini --- I read summaries of a statement by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani but did not post them.

I did not post the original from the Iranian Labor News Agency or the abridgements from outlets like Radio Zamaneh because the language seemed, well vague: "Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, head of Iran’s Assembly of Experts urged those faithful to the Islamic Revolution and Ayatollah Khomeini not to let “the Revolution to fall in the hands of strangers.” Rafsanjani called on the public not to let the Islamic Revolution to be derailed from its “original and true” path because, once deviations in the Islamic Republic occur, “it will be very difficult or impossible to overcome them”.

So has Rafsanjani issued a veiled warning to the Government, cautioned the opposition not to be too strident, or taken a seat on a tall fence? Answers on a postcard or in our comments section....

0900 GMT: Film Corner. Jafar Panahi, the acclaimed film director released last week after more than three months in prison, has said, "Sometimes I feel that the mere thought of writing a film can be a crime here, just the idea that to do so may be penalized. It may even be enough to go to jail....Now I have to make films in my dreams, sometimes in my head."

0855 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA claims several students and activists were released last evening.

Khabar Online reports that Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi is meeting families of detainees on a weekly basis, apparently in an effort to get prisoners to repent.

Kodoom updates on detained teachers.

0835 GMT: Economic Battles. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has criticised President Ahmadinejad for not implementating the law on privatisation correctly.

The Supreme Audit Court has presented examples of deviations in oil revenues, with $1 billion missing in 2007.

0830 GMT: A Green IRIB? The pro-Government Raja News, in a surprising admission and/or an attack on possible subversives within Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, declares that Mir Hossein Mousavi was favoured over President Ahmadinejad by employees of IRIB by a 7:1 margin.

0820 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rooz Online reports on detained activists in Iranian Azerbaijan.

0810 GMT: Home Box Office in the US has released a new documentary on the death of Neda Agha-Soltan, "For Neda".

(Documentaries from November 2009 by the BBC and by the US Public Broadcasting Service are available elsewhere on EA.)

0700 GMT: The Supreme Leader''s Latest Move. Dave Siav0shi at Iran News Now posts a sharp assessment of yesterday's announcement of pre-election pardons, "The Shrewd Calculus Behind Khamenei’s Release of 81 Political Prisoners".

The names of those pardoned are still unknown.

0635 GMT: We have finally tracked down an English translation of Sunday's letter from detained student activist Majid Tavakoli, "The Will of My Nation Led to Victory", and posted it in a separate entry.

0610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kamran Asa, the brother of the slain protester Kianoush Asa, has been re-arrested.

Kamran Asa was first jailed on 16 December and detained for two months.

0550 GMT: One more day before the pace of the politics --- and, possibly, the public contest over the Government and the regime --- quickens.

Tomorrow is the anniversary of the death in 1989 of Ayatollah Khomeini and all sides are staking out their positions. Both the Supreme Leader and the President appear at Friday Prayers, and Mir Hossein Mousavi has released his statement --- posted in a separate entry --- to claim the legacy of Khomeini and Revolution for the opposition.

And where there is political manoeuvring, there are also the steps to limit debate. Rooz Online has a summary of "the third round of mass arrest of journalists and political activists". It notes the detentions of journalists Azam Veisameh and Mahboubeh Khansari and claims that security agents failed in their attempt to arrest several reformist activists and one political prisoner’s wife.

The pro-Government Raja News has claimed that Veisameh and Khansari “communicated with foreign media” and discussed “information about certain issues”.
Thursday
Jun032010

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (3 June): Pressure on Israel Grows

2105 GMT: Details have been released about Furkan Dogan, the Turkish-American killed in the Israeli attack.

Dogan, 19, was born in Troy, New York, but his family moved to Turkey when he was 2. He was a high school student at Kayseri in the centre of the country.

Dogan was shot five times at close range --- four bullets in the head and one in the chest.

NEW Turkey Inside Line: Parliament, President, and People Condemn Israel
NEW Gaza Flotilla Analysis: US Official Position “My Israel, Right or Wrong” (Yenidunya)
NEW Gaza Flotilla Video: Netanyahu’s Speech “Iran’s Master Plan and the Hate Boat” (2 June)
NEW Gaza Flotilla Video: Member of Israel Parliament Accused of Supporting “Terrorists”
Gaza Flotilla: A Legal Opinion “The Occupying Power Had to Facilitate the Passage”
Gaza Flotilla Video & Transcript: Hillary Clinton’s Statement (1 June)
Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog: Limiting an Enquiry, Maintaining a Blockade? (2 June)


1805 GMT: More Testimony. Briton Sarah Colborne, the director of campaigns and operations at the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, has given an account of the attack on the Mavi Marmara that complements the testimony of other passengers (see 1435 GMT).


Colborne, like others, said Israeli firing began before commandos boarded the ship: "There was live ammunition flying around and I could hear the sounds of the bullets flying and the whirr of the helicopter blades as people were dropped down onto the roof. What I saw was guns being used by the Israelis on unarmed civilians. I saw a bullet wound in someone's head. It was very clear it was live ammunition." She also said that the Israelis ignored white flags, calls for surrenders, and pleas to treat the critically injured.

1750 GMT: We've published a special feature on the changing Turkish position on Israel in the aftermath of the attack on the Freedom Flotilla.

1745 GMT: Netanyahu Compromising? Despite his most uncompromising speech yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is considering a modified policy on the blockade of Gaza, according to Aluf Benn of Ha'aretz:
Netanyahu is willing to consider easing the naval blockade on the Gaza Strip, as well as possible creative solutions for monitoring the goods that are allowed to enter the Hamas-ruled territory. According to Netanyahu, the siege should focus on preventing the smuggling of rockets and weapons in order to avoid what he termed an "Iranian port in Gaza" in a speech he gave in Canada on Monday.


1525 GMT: The US Position. We've published an analysis by Ali Yenidunya of Washington's political manoeuvres, "My Israel, Right or Wrong".

Meanwhile, in the Cover Your Back Department, The Washington Post reports:

The Obama administration said Wednesday that it had warned Israel's government repeatedly to use "caution and restraint" with half a dozen aid boats bound for the Gaza Strip before Israeli commandos raided the flotilla this week in an operation that killed nine people.

"We communicated with Israel through multiple channels many times regarding the flotilla," P.J. Crowley, a State Department spokesman, said...."We emphasized caution and restraint given the anticipated presence of civilians, including American citizens."

1445 GMT: Max Blumenthal reveals how Israel Defense Forces, when pressed for evidence, retracted a headline linking Flotilla passengers to Al Qa'eda.

Deputy Foreign Danny Ayalon had made the claim of a link in his press conference on Tuesday, the day after the Israeli attack.

1435 GMT: More Testimonies. Hassan Ghani of Iran's Press TV, who was on board the Mavi Marmara when it was attacked, has given his account of the assault and his detention in Israel.

Canadian Farooq Burney, who runs a Qatari educational initiative, says an elderly man was shot and bled to death. He claimed Israeli commandos waited more than an hour before treating the wounded, even though activists made a makeshift sign reading: "S.O.S. .. Please provide medical assistance".

Burney also claimed activists who snatched pistols from the commandos removed the cartridges and threw them away, contradicting Israeli assertions that passengers used weapons.

1100 GMT: Edward Peck, a former US Ambassador who was on the Freedom Flotilla, in a wide-ranging, provocative interview on Democracy Now!:
Gaza does not belong to Israel. It is illegally occupied by international law, so you can’t really stop ships from going there. Well, you can, and they did, but if people try to resist what you’re trying to do, you cannot really accuse them of attacking your heavily armed soldiers. And they [the commandos] were heavily armed. On our little boat, a couple of them had paint guns attached to their submachine guns, along with stun grenades and the pepper spray and the handcuffs and the pistols....

I was expelled from Israel]. I was deported for having violated Israeli law. And I said to the gentleman, "What law have I violated?" He said, "You have illegally entered Israel." I said, "Well, now, wait. Our ship was taken over by armed commandos. I was brought here at gunpoint against my will, and you call that illegally entering Israel? You and I went to different law schools, guy." It’s kind of a --- it’s a fiasco. It would be amusing if it weren’t so damned sad, because, unfortunately --- and I speak with total sincerity here --- I think Israel has done itself some serious damage. And in addition to just what they did, it was the way they did it and the way they’re presenting it. Nobody regrets what happened on the Israeli side, because those were all terrorists, you know, violating our laws. Guys, get a grip. This isn’t going to work.

1040 GMT: When Did the Israelis Shoot? Al Jazeera's Jamal Elshayyal, who was reporting from the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship of the Flotilla, said he witnessed some of the killings and at least "one person was shot through the top of the head from [the helicopter] above".

Significantly, Elshayyal says the Israelis fired first and before any commandos boarded: within a few minutes of seeing the Israeli helicopters, shots were fired from above and from Israeli boat at seas: "The first shots were tear gas, sound grenades, and rubber-coated steel bullets. Live shots came five minutes after that. There was definitely live fire from the air and from the sea as well."

He confirmed that some passengers took apart some of the ship's railing bars to defend themselves as they saw the Israeli soldiers approaching. He added, however, "After the shooting and the first deaths, people put up white flags and signs in English and Hebrew. An Israeli [on the ship] asked the soldiers to take away the injured, but they did not and the injured died on the ship."

1030 GMT:  Eight of the nine slain passengers were Turkish. Four names have been released: İbrahim Bilgen, Ali Haydar Bengi, Ali Ekber Yaratılmış, and Muharrem Koçak. Funerals are being held in Turkey today.

The ninth fatality was an American of Turkish origin.

0745 GMT: The flurry of political statements around Monday's attack on the Freedom Flotilla and the Israeli blockade of Gaza continues.

We've posted a video of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's defence of the assault, based on a link between the Flotilla and alleged Iranian schemes, including a plan for a militarised port in Gaza.

Within Israel, however, there has been dissent over the military operation. We have posted video of the clash in the Knesset, Israel's Parliament, between Haneen Zoabi, who was on board the Flotilla, and legislators who claimed she supported "terrorists".

And on the international front, the Israeli Government is facing more pressure, even from allies. The British Government's denunciations of the attack and call for an alternative to the blockade--- noted in our updates yesterday --- have been followed this morning by American signals. Using Ethan Bronner of The New York Times, US officials put out the message:
The Obama administration considers Israel’s blockade of Gaza to be untenable and plans to press for another approach to ensure Israel’s security while allowing more supplies into the impoverished Palestinian area....The officials say that Israel’s deadly attack on a flotilla trying to break the siege and the resulting international condemnation create a new opportunity to push for increased engagement with the Palestinian Authority and a less harsh policy toward Gaza.

The Jerusalem Post adds that Washington has suggested that Israel establish an inquiry team led by an internationally-recognized judge and including an American representative.

Janine Zacharia of The Washington Post, in a sharp break from US coverage which has often featured defences by Israeli officials, takes readers inside Gaza:
The ill-fated aid flotilla bound for Gaza this week bore food, medicine and toys.

What it didn't have on board were the things that Gazans say they need most: jobs, reliable electricity and a ticket out.

It has been five years since Israel pulled its soldiers and settlers from the coastal strip, and largely closed Gaza off from the world. Israel's critics say what's left is a devastated land in need of emergency assistance. Israeli officials insist Gaza's people are getting what they need to live. Neither narrative reflects the complex and dysfunctional way of life that has emerged here.
Thursday
Jun032010

Gaza Flotilla Video: Netanyahu's Speech "Iran's Master Plan and the Hate Boat" (2 June)

I leave it to readers to evaluate Wednesday's statement by the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but I will put this question: what is the connection between the Freedom Flotilla --- which was inspected thoroughly by Turkish authorities before heading to sea --- and "dozens of tons of weapons destined by Hamas, destined by Iran, for Gaza" and a supposed quest by Iran for a "Mediterranean port a few dozen kilometres from Tel Aviv and from Jerusalem"?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pk7ZREDSw_A&feature=player_embedded#![/youtube]

Gaza Flotilla Video: Member of Israel Parliament Accused of Supporting “Terrorists”