The Latest from Iran (28 June): The Regime Fails to Wrap Up the Election

The Latest from Iran Crisis (29 June): The Challenge Survives

NEW Latest Video: Rally at Ghobar Mosque (28 June)
The Iran Crisis (Day 17): What to Watch For Today

NEW UPDATE Iran: A Tale of Two Twitterers
Text: Mousavi Letter to Guardian Council (27 June)
Text: Mousavi Letter to Overseas Supporters (24 June)
The Latest from Iran (27 June): Situation Normal. Move Along.

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2100 GMT: Report that the eight Iranian employees of the British Embassy, detained this morning, have been released.

1900 GMT: The Rafsanjani Speech. Tehran Bureau's Muhammad Sahimi echoes our analysis (see 1655 GMT), “Rafsanjani breaking his silence. I read what Rafsanjani said. It was not saying much. He was saying the standard things, ‘the complaints must be addressed.’ He also talked about foreign roles, but did not say much. It is not clear where he stands.”

1745 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi was not at the rally today but it is reported that, via his mobile phone, he addressed them on loudspeakers.

BBC Persian is summarising former President Khatami's latest statement that all sides should avoid provocation and that a satisfactory resolution is possible through legal measures.

1705 GMT: While her father Hashemi Rafsanjani was setting out his public position, Faezeh Hashemi was attending (and reportedly speaking at) the Ghobar mosque rally. Mehdi Karroubi was also present.

1655 GMT: A summary of the Rafsanjani speech has now been posted online (in Farsi) by the Islamic State News Agency. The former President appears to have (cleverly) maintained his political space: he criticised "mysterious agents" who tried to create discord but also that the majority of demonstrators, when cognisant of those conspiracies, had been "neutral". Thus, his praise of the Supreme Leader sat alongside his recognition of protest as legitimate.

1635 GMT: Breaking news that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has finally emerged in public with his first significant post-election statement: he is reported to have called for "elaborate processing of legal complaints in cooperation with candidates". He has also praised the Supreme Leader for extending the deadline for filing of complaints.

1630 GMT: Latest from Ghobar mosque. Now reports of "50,000" in vicinity. Riot police are stationed in a school nearby. Mir Hossein Mousavi has not yet shown up.

Report that lawyer/university professor Kambiz Norouzi arrested in front of the mosque.

1622 GMT: Associated Press is reporting the use of tear gas on the crowd in front of Ghobar mosque. The chant from the crowd, referring in memoriam to Ayatollah Beheshti, killed in 1981, "Where are you Beheshti? Mousavi's left all alone."

1610 GMT: We've posted the first video from the Ghobar mosque rally (and the first significant video out of Iran in four days). Only a 26-second clip, but there look to be far more than the "5000" people mentioned by CNN.

1523 GMT: First report and picture of "memorial" rally at Ghobar mosque. Former President Khatami has spoken. The mosque is full and "tens of thousands" of people are on surrounding streets

1500 GMT: Detention Update. Dr. Ghorban Behzadian Nezhad, the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's headquarters, has been released, but prominent actresses Homa Roosta and Mahtab Nasirpour have been arrested. A report (in Farsi) of those arrested at Laleh Park (see our 27 June updates) has now been posted.

1410 GMT: It Ain't Over. Here's another clue that the political battle continues, and it comes from no less than the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Press TV is playing its dutiful role by headlining, "Iran Slams Western Interference", but the real significance comes in Khamenei's call on Iranian politicians to toe the proper line: “If the nation and political elite are united in heart and mind, the incitement of international traitors and oppressive politicians will be ineffective.” He once again tried to lay responsibility for opposition candidates for whipping up impressionable extremists: “The people's emotions, especially that of the youth, must not be toyed with and they should not be pitted against one another."

Easy to translate this: challengers like Mehdi Karroubi (1315 GMT), Mir Hossein Moussavi, and even the "conservative" Mohsen Rezaei (1405 GMT) have not bowed down to the Guardian Council.

1405 GMT: Mohsen Rezaei, the most "conservative" of the three challengers to President Ahmadinejad, has also refused to quiet his objections to the regime's handling of the post-election situation. His representative has accused the Ministry of Interior of acting against the law and told the head of the election commission that he should stop provoking public opinion.

1330 GMT: Bluster and Reality from Washington. David Axelrod, a key advisor to President Obama, has spoken about Iran in his national television interview this morning. He labelled President Ahmadinejad's recent criticisms of the US and Western countries as "bloviations" trying to cause "political diversions".

Having made the necessary rhetorical posturing, Axelrod could then put out the less palatable but pragmatic line: the US, as part of the "5+1" group, would attend talks in Paris with Iran over its nuclear programme.

1315 GMT: Karroubi Makes His Move. The first answer to the question we set this morning, "Will the Guardian Council's actions today close off the high-profile protest?", has now come. Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi has issued a direct challenge to the Council, in effect saying it does not have the authority to rule.

Karroubi, like Mir Hossein Moussavi (and, from a different political direction, Ali Larijani), declared that the Council had lost the neutrality necessary to be a fair legislative-judicial court because certain members favoured President Ahmadinejad. He said (in the paraphrase of an Iranian translator), "The Guardian Council's actions in the past two weeks had significantly diminished their place in public opinion." The response to the calls for protest by former President Mohammad Khatami was "a big no" to the Council. Karroubi concluded, "The small section of votes assigned to me" would not stop his challenge.

1145 GMT: The internal situation has been further complicated this afternoon with news of the first approved public gathering in almost two weeks. A memorial nominally for Ayatolllah Mohammad Beheshti, a leader of the Islamic Revolution who was killed in a terrorist bombing in May 1981, will be held from 6 to 8 p.m. local time (1330 to 1530 GMT) at the Ghobar mosque in Tehran. The gathering will inevitably be projected by many as the memorial, so far denied by authorities, for those killed in post-election violence. Mir Hossein Mousavi will be attending the service.

1130 GMT: The media is dominated at the moment by the story, released this morning by Iranian state media, that eight Iranian personnel of the British Embassy have been detained.

While the development is of course serious for those arrested, it should be as a diversion from the internal conflict. There is still no information on the deliberations of the Guardian Council, which was supposed to issue its definitive  ruling on the Presidential election today.

Instead, Iranian media is offering a cocktail of stories of foreign intervention. In addition to the British Embassy story, Press TV's website is featuring "Ahmadinejad warns Obama over interference" and "Obama to fund anti-govt. elements in Iran: Report". (The latter story is based on a Friday article in USA Today.)

0725 GMT: We've posted an important document, Mir Hossein Mousavi's letter to the Guardian Council reiterating his challenge to the Presidential vote. Far from backing down, at least publicly, Mousavi has again called for a new election and called for a neutral arbitration panel rather than the Council's "special committee" to review the electoral process.

We've also posted Mousavi's letter, written on Wednesday, to his overseas supporters.

0600 GMT: As we note in our "What to Watch For Today" feature, Press TV's website is pushing yesterday's announcement of the Expediency Council, a body for legal and political resolution led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, calling on all campaigns to co-operate with the Guardian Council's "special committee" which is to hold an enquiry into the election. The Mousavi and Karroubi campaigns are holding out against appointment of a representative, however, because of doubts over the fairness and neutrality of the committee.

Even more interesting is CNN's return not only to the story, bumping Michael Jackson to #2, but to a highly critical position on the Iranian regime. Both its website and its current international broadcasts are highlighting the testimony of an Amnesty International official that the Basiji are taking injured demonstrators from hospitals. The claim follows a Friday report from Human Rights Watch of Basiji raiding homes and beating civilians, and Amnesty also has a list of detainees to add to that compiled by the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran.

UPDATED Iran: A Tale of Two Twitterers

The Latest from Iran (27 June): Situation Normal. Move Along.

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UPDATE 29 June: see Scott's new post, "Iran: More on 'Two Twitterers' (and on the idiocy of 'The Times)"

UPDATE 28 June 2100 GMT: "Change_for_Iran" is back. He/she resumed communication an hour ago, after a three-day break: "Reza released from Hospital yesterday he is banned from university and now is a starred [marked by government] student. He spent his first 48h of arrest at level -4 of ministry of interior building without food or water." The connection is poor, however, so reports may not be sustained.

UPDATE 28 June 0615 GMT: No further news overnight, I'm afraid. We are monitoring closely.

UPDATE 27 June, 2230 GMT: Reports coming in via Twitter that "persiankiwi" has been arrested.

UPDATE 27 June, 1230 GMT: I am sorry to write that "persiankiwi" has not returned to Twitter since we posted this. After his/her brief revival after the beating by the Basiji, "Change_For_Iran" has not written in two days. A campaign has started to recognise "persiankiwi" through a "CNN Heroes" award.

Originally I was going to post this as an item in our Rolling Updates but, on reflection, I think it deserves more attention.

As events unfolded after the election in Iran, we had to make judgement calls not only on information coming out through "established" media but via newer sources such as the reports on Twitter. There was a lot of chaff out there, but there was also a lot of wheat. To put the point bluntly, in the early days of the crisis, the best sources on Twitter were complementing material from print journalists and broadcasters such as CNN, the BBC, Al Jazeera, and Press TV; in recent days, as those reporters and outlets have been blinded (except for Press TV, which serves its role as spokesperson for the Iranian Government), the Twitter sources took the lead in information or indications on events.

One of those sources is "persiankiwi". He/she, passionately caught up (and possibly participating) in events, is far from neutral, but the information was valuable and much of it stood up under cross-checking.

However, as Aric Mayer writes in a blog today, the events at Baharestan Square yesterday, though far from clear, seem to have pushed persiankiwi beyond the bearable limits of trauma. A series of anguished notes began with "Just in from Baharestan Sq - situation today is terrible - they beat the ppls like animals" and ended with "thank you ppls 4 supporting Sea of Green - pls remember always our martyrs - Allah Akbar - Allah Akbar - Allah Akbar....Allah - you are the creator of all and all must return to you - Allah Akbar".

Then there is the story of  "Change_For_Iran". Another key pointer to developments, he/she suddenly dropped off the Twitter map early on 21 June. Today, he/she resurfaced:

I'm only posting this to say I'm still alive & not in Tehran, I had a bad incident with Basij and couldn't use computer....Shayan's brother's fate is still unknown, Reza has been released yesterday & at hospital right now & I think Masood is safe....As soon I can walk properly again, I will go back to Tehran....I will twitt again at night, my back & neck hurts a lot & I can't sit here anymore....And to everyone out there specially IRG [Revolutionary Guard]: no it's not the end & it will never be until we get what is rightfully ours.

In part, I'm posting this as a rebuke to all those who have passed snap judgements about Twitter in recent days. The information technology is just the medium here. What matters are the messengers.

And right now I am grateful for those who, under conditions much more strenuous than the safety of a keyboard in central Britain, have persisted in recent days, not from professional duty or self-promotion, but because they believed that it was the right and necessary thing to do.

The Iran Crisis (Day 17): What to Watch For Today

The Latest from Iran (28 June): The Regime Tries to Wrap Up the Election
NEW Text: Mousavi Letter to Guardian Council (27 June)
NEW Text: Mousavi Letter to Overseas Supporters (24 June)
The Latest from Iran (27 June): Situation Normal. Move Along.

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In the next eight hours we may know whether the high-profile challenge both to the Presidential vote and to the Iranian system continues or whether the, movement for change enters a longer-term, less visible phase. The Guardian Council will declare, after its purported recount of 10% of the ballot boxes, that the election was fair and that the count was accurate. What is unknown is whether all campaigns, and in particular those of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, will endorse the result. If they are, then this should end the high-level opposition, and  protest (while still very significant) will be carried out in numerous, often subtle ways; if the representatives stay away, then leading politicians and clerics have not given up.

There still may be yet another short-term compromise which delays any immediate resolution. On Thursday, the Guardian Council announced that a "special committee" would conduct an enquiry into the conduct of the election. It asked that all campaigns designate members of the committee. As of this morning, the Mousavi and Karroubi camps have not named their representatives, arguing that other members appointed by the Council are not fair and neutral.

Press TV's website offers one important signal, one that never made it to "Western" media yesterday, behind the manoeuvres.. The Expediency Council, which nominally rules on disputes of law and the political process, called on all candidates to cooperate fully with the Guardian Council's "inquiry": “As the best and most appropriate way, the Expediency Council asks all to observe the law and resolve conflicts and disputes (concerning the election) through legal channels.” Beyond the formal statement is the apparent concession of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to the re-election of his foe, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Rafsanjani leads the Council and, soon after the vote, had tried to bring it into the open against the outcome.

Behind this political showpiece is the threatening backdrop of the crackdown on dissent. Public clashes continues, even if it is difficult to get details (yesterday's alleged beating of women activists in Laleh Park is a pertinent case). Easier to document, even amidst the media blackout, is the scale of the arrests and detentions. Hundreds, including the most important associates and advisors of Mousavi and former President Mohammad Khatami, journalists (both "mainstream" and "new media", such as the Twitterer "persiankiwi"), students, and other activists, are now in prison.

Text: Mousavi Letter to Guardian Council (27 June)

The Latest from Iran (28 June): The Regime Tries to Wrap Up the Election
The Iran Crisis (Day 17): What to Watch For Today

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This weekend, candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, in the context both of the Guardian Council's purported recount of 10% of the Presidential vote and its appointment of a "special committee" to conduct an enquiry into the electoral process, wrote a letter calling for an annulment of the election and a new vote. He also objected to the composition of the "special committee" and call for a fair, neutral arbitration panel consisting of legal and religious specialists. Via Tehran Bureau:

Based on what I already informed the Council about, the extent and depth of the unlawful acts [of the government] in four distinct categories, namely,

1. The election campaigns, and what the government did prior to Election Day;
2. The collection of the votes [on June 12] and their enumeration;
3. Summarizing the results and announcing them [and],
4. What has taken place after announcing the results,

are such that there is no remedy for them other than annulment of the entire election and holding a new one.

As examples, I point out certain violations and unlawful acts that are recognized by Article 33 of the laws of presidential elections as violations that influence the overall result of the elections and, therefore, leave no choice but annulment of the elections:

1. Explicit and widespread violation of Article 68 of the elction laws that forbids the use of public resources for, and the intervention of the cabinet members, senior officials, governor-generals, and managers in favor of the candidate of the establishment [President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad].

2. Violation of the neutrality of the Voice and Visage [Seda va Sima: National Iranian Radio and Television Network], and making unfounded accusations [against the reformist candidates] by that organ, the unlawful nature of some of which has also been confirmed by Iran’s Chief Justice [Ghorbanali Dorri Najafabadi], as well as widespread campaign and propaganda by governmental organizations, such as IRNA [Iran’s official news agency], newspapers, and websites in favor of the establishment’s candidate.

3. Widespread violations of Article 33 of the presidential election laws:

a. buying votes by distributing the so-called “justice stocks and shares” and cash among the peasants.
b. Threatening, as well as bribing by cash, members of the city councils, influential people, etc.
c. Lack of confidence in the ballot boxes being empty before they were sealed [before voting], disappearance of the
voting forms and ballot boxes after voting, due to the fact that [our] monitors had been barred from being present at
the voting places, as well as based on reports that have been received.
d. Denying people’s rights to vote by limiting the hours of voting, and many other violations, such as lack of voting
forms at the voting locations.
e. Fraud in voting by not having enough voting forms at voting places, even though 12 million additional forms [on top
of the 47 million needed for the number of eligible voters] had already been printed, and printing of an additional 2.5
million forms (and perhaps more) that had no official serial numbers had also been authorized by a member of the
Council. Such violations can undoubtedly be proven by comparing the completed voting forms with the information in
the Information Bank [that the government keeps of all the Iranian people].
f. “Recommendation” to people by the officials working at voting places for whom they should vote, and selecting such
officials and monitors from amongst the ranks of the establishment candidate.
g. Intimidating the voters and supporters of the reformist candidates in the week before the election, and attacking
their campaign headquarters and their supporters in the legal gathering and rallies around the country.
h. Setting many limitations for the [reformist] candidates’ monitors to attend the meetings of the executive committees
[that supervise the elections], be present at the centers where the votes were collected and counted, as well as at
a significant number of voting locations.
i. Cutting off, on the voting day, all means of mass communications, such as SMS and cell phones, which are used for
monitoring the elections and reporting unlawful acts to my campaign headquarters, so that we could pursue the legal
channels to stop them.
j. Collecting the votes in a way that could not be monitored, and announcing the results in an “engineered” way (while,
even before announcing the results by the Interior Ministry, the websites that are linked with the government, the
Sepaah [the Revolutionary Guards], and [the daily] Kayhan [the mouthpiece of the hard-liners] had already
announced the results).
k. Widespread intervention in the elections by some parts of the armed forces prior and during the elections, which is
against the explicit order of the Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who had forbidden the military from intervention in
political affairs].
l. The existence of more 170 voting districts [out of a total of 368] in which the percentage of the votes cast was
between 95% and 140% of the total number of eligible voters.
m. Attacking my [Mr. Mousavi’s] campaign headquarters throughout the country, shutting down my central campaign
headquarter [in Tehran], and arresting the campaign chairman and its active members, which disrupted our work for
collecting information and documents on the violations of the election law.

....

All the above items indicate the existence of prior planning and organization for violating the election law. Since the Guardian Council has already stated that investigating some of the violations is beyond its authority, and because some of the violations were committed by the Interior Minister [Sadegh Mahsouli], other senior officials in the Ministry, and some members of the Guardian Council who violated the principle of neutrality, an impartial investigation of the violations cannot be done by the Guardian Council, as well as any committee that is appointed by the Council. Indeed, some members of the committee were not neutral in the elections, and have stated their positions before the investigation has been conducted and, therefore, cannot contribute to removing the public’s doubts about the elections.

Therefore, I [Mr. Mousavi] insist once again that the best way of addressing the issue and regaining the nation’s trust in the election process is by annulling the election and appointing a national adjudicating team that can be trusted by the public and its verdict can be accepted by it. Thus, I suggest that the issue should be referred to an independent legal team trusted by all the candidates and the religious leaders.

Text: Mousavi Letter to Overseas Supporters (24 June)

The Latest from Iran (28 June): The Regime Tries to Wrap Up the Election
The Iran Crisis (Day 17): What to Watch For Today

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Via the Iranian newspaper Payvand:

In the Name of the God, The Compassionate, The Merciful

Dear compatriots,
Honorable Iranians living abroad,

Your widespread and energetic presence in this year's 22 Khordad elections is indicative of your ties to our beloved Iran, and your admirable worries about the future of your country, and as I mentioned to you in my election message, Iran belongs to all Iranians and all layers of the populous are responsible for its future, and enjoy the same rights in it.

I feel obliged to thank you for your epic presence in determining the future of your country. Your widespread welcoming of these elections and your green and energetic presence at the ballot boxes was so large that it even forced the government and the organizers of the elections to admit to a 300% increase in the participation of Iranians in the tenth presidential elections outside of the country.

Your trust in this insignificant civil servant and your decisive vote for me in most of the voting stations outside of the country has placed a heavy burden on my shoulders. I would like to give you my assurance that I remain true to my existing pact with you and all layers of the great people of Iran, and using all legal avenues will demand your deserved rights that have been violated at the ballot boxes.

Unfortunately, as you witness in the international media, contrary to the letter of the constitution, and the stated freedoms in the Islamic Republic, all my communication with the people and you has been cut off, and people's peaceful objections are being crushed. The national media which is being financed with public funds, with a revolting misrepresentation is changing the truth, and labels the peaceful march of close to three million people as anarchist, and the media that are being controlled by the government have become the mouthpiece of those who have stolen the people's votes.

I'd like to thank you again for your peaceful objections which have received widespread coverage across the world, and would like to ask you that by using all legal channels, and by remaining faithful to the sacred system of the Islamic Republic, to make sure that your objections are heard by the authorities in the country. I am fully aware that your justified demands have nothing to do with groups who do not believe in the sacred Islamic Republic of Iran's system. It is up to you to distance yourself from them, and do not allow them to misuse the current situation.

Mir Hossein Mousavi
1388/4/3 (June 24, 2009)