The Latest from Iran (7 July): Sitting Out a StormUPDATED Iran: Solving the Mystery of The “Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom”UPDATED Iran: Joe Biden’s “Green Light” and an Israeli AirstrikeThe Latest From Iran (5 July): Treading WaterReceive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
2145 GMT: The death toll in Tehran may be far higher than official figures suggest. Fintan Dunne has posted
this English rewrite of an article
in Le Figaro:
One of a pair of Iranian doctors, who fled the capital to France says an unofficial tally by medical staff at Tehran area hospitals counted 92 violent deaths related to conflicts with security forces. The death toll is considerably at variance with an official figure of 17 deaths.
1700 GMT: An Iranian website is reporting on
a meeting that Mir Hossein Mousavi held with "friends and acquaintances" on the occassion of Imam Ali's birthday. Mousavi said that the election had shown the problems of the Iranian system and repeated that the State faced questions over its legitimacy at home and abroad. He declared, on the issue of protest, "The movement will continue," but this would be within a legal framework.
1635 GMT: The Regime Wins One?
Mehr News Agency reports that the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, has finally congratulated President Ahmadinejad on his "victory". Larijani had caused some friction for the post-election procession with his querying of the neutrality of the Guardian Council and his demand for an enquiry into the raids on the dormitories of Tehran University. (
hat tip to Nico Pitney)
1555 GMT: But here's the real significance of the Khamenei statement: yes, there is an fight going on within the rgime. According to Press TV, Khamenei "pointed to the internal disagreement among Iranian officials", although he then "explained that despite such disputes these officials stand united against the enemy". That's the point to remember amidst his bluster, "In the event of enemy intervention, the Iranian nation, despite differences of opinion, will unite and become an iron fist against them."
1550 GMT: Look! Over There! The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei,
has again brought out the foreign menace. Speaking on Monday, he warned Western countries against "meddling" in Iran's internal affairs: ""Such governments should be careful with their hostile approach and remarks. The Iranian nation will react." Khamenei also
referred to protesters as a "depressed" and "distressed" minority.
1545 GMT: Expect a standstill in developments tomorrow. Confirmation that
Tehran will be "shut down" for 24 hours tomorrow because of dust pollution.
1515 GMT: The LA Times is
carrying confirmation of Mousavi's apparent decision to launch his own political party (which we
reported yesterday).
1300 GMT: Another Lemming Jumps. The Wall Street Journal
runs with Sunday's inaccurate and misleading New York Times story, plus a lot of general background, to try and catch attention with a Clerics v. The Regime story.
1240 GMT: Rumour of the day: a significant portion of the Revolutionary Guard have turned against the Supreme Leader. Twitter user
MikVerbrugge claims the source of this information is an Iranian officer they are in contact with.
1230 GMT: Another British embassy worker
has been freed, leaving one member of staff still in detention.
0920 GMT: And a nice reminder of the political tension behind the scenes.
The German service Deutsche Welle reports that Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a staunch supporter of President Ahmadinejad, sent a stern letter to the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, warning him to "obey" the Supreme Leader.
0915 GMT: Press TV's website also features the comment of police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam that "two-thirds" of those arrested in post-election conflicts had been freed or released on bail. The missing detail? Neither the police chief nor Press TV mention
how many people were detained.
0845 GMT: Last night we began received reports of a large duststorm moving across Iran from the west, reaching Tehran today.
That's an apt metaphor for the current political situation. There's been an uneasy settling of conflict over the last few days but the sense that, even though public activity was reduced, there could soon be another clash. Ironically, even though there is almost no breaking news coming out of Tehran, that sense is heightened this morning.
On the clerical front, there is enough intrigue to fill several crises. That intrigue has been elevated (and, indeed, exaggerated) by Sunday's misleading
New York Times story of a dramatic challenge to the Supreme Leader from Iran's "most important" clerical faction, the "Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom".. We've sorted out fact from fiction
in a separate post.
On the political front, both the regime and the opposition are manoeuvring ahead of the planned demonstration on Thursday. Protest will continue today, "Father's Day" in Iran, as relatives of detainees gather in front of Evin Prison. On the other side, the Islamic Revolution's Guard Corps (Revolutionary Guard) used
a Sunday conference to put out warnings. The political head, General Yudollah Javani declared:
Today, no one is impartial. There are two currents; those who defend and support the revolution and the establishment, and those who are trying to topple it. Those who wanted to topple the revolution made a mistake in their calculations. They had ignored the awareness of the people and the role of the Leader.
The Commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, added, “We are convinced that the IRGC must play a deciding role in the preservation and continuation of the revolution.” (He added that this should in no way be interpreted as “meddling” by the IRGC in politics.)
Iran's Chief of Police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam, chipped in with a public statement keeping the foreign menace alive: "The BBC and the British Embassy, spearheaded efforts aimed at provoking unrest and incited people to commit civil disobedience and go on strike." It is still unclear whether any local staffers of the British Embassy will stand trial for "endangering national security".
Tuesday, July 7, 2009 at 22:16 
UPDATE (7 July, 0800 GMT): There is still a lively debate over what Joe Biden "really meant" with his words on Sunday. That seems to miss the point that the significance is what others think he meant or how they turn his words to their advantage. The latest reaction comes from the Iranian Government. where Speaker of the Parliament 
Editor's Note: In my focus on US Vice President Joe Biden's statements on Sunday about Israeli sovereignty and possible attack against Iran, I set aside the other big signal, which came out of Israel's favourite British PR firm, The Sunday Times of London. Thanks to Ali Yenidunya for reviing this.