The Latest from Iran (3 July): The Long Haul?

The Latest from Iran (4 July): Breaking the Reformists? Not So Fast….

Iran: The Statement of "The Mourning Mothers of Iran"
A Song for Iran? “Free My Land”
LATEST Video: “Keeping the Peace” (30 June-2 July)
The Latest from Iran (2 July): The “Gradual” Opposition

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1825 GMT: BBC English has posted a video report on the Iranian Government's "public service" campaign on a telephone hotline for people to inform on family and friends participating in demonstrations.

1645 GMT: BBC Persian reports that Ayatollah Yusef Sane'i, a fervent critic of the Government, has condemned televised confessions, saying they have no value as the obvious product of torture. Sane'i emphasized that "endurance is the key to success".

1515 GMT: The demonstration for 9 July is on. Andrew Sullivan has posted a copy of a leaflet (left) for the rally.

1445 GMT: Etemade Melli, the pro-"reformist" newspaper, reports today on the censorship imposed on Thursday by prosecutors and Ministry of Culture officials. The paper claims that its account of how it was closed on Wednesday by authorities was removed. Political stories were replaced by a "social page" and an item on the National University entrance examination.

1435 GMT: Reports that Sara Sabbaghian, lawyers and women's rights activist, was freed from Evin Prison on Thursday. In contrast, the regime's pressure on those present at the death of Neda Agha Soltan continues; in addition to pursuit of the doctor who tried to help her, Arash Hejazi, an eyewitness to the killing claims his family is being harassed.

There are also claims that three people have been killed, more than 200 injured, and many detained in the eastern city of Mashaad.

1315 GMT: Was Ayatollah Jannati's "foreign enemies" claim, with the threat of espionage trials, too embarrassing for Iranian state media? Press TV's website makes no reference to the allegations against Britain, saying cryptically that Jannati "warn[ed] that powers in the West would derive great benefits if the internal dispute continued to drag on". Instead, Press TV headlines, "Cleric urges end to election dispute in Iran". The Islamic Republic News Agency takes the same path, "Ayatollah Jannati: Presidential Elections Were Accurate".

An alternative explanation is that, whereas foreign media jumped on the Jannati reference to a possible trial, the focus of his speech was indeed on providing reassurances about the election process and warning that it was now over. The broader interpretation is unchanged, however; the regime is not yet secure that it has overcome the challenge on the streets and behind the scenes.

1250 GMT: We're keeping our eyes open for a text of Ayatollah Jannati's address at Friday prayers but my initial sense is that it indicates some continuing regime concern about protests: they have risked a heightened  invocation of the foreign threat, which may damage relations with Britain, Europe, and the US, to ensure public support for their maintenance of "order".

1245 GMT: More on the report below that Iranian staff of the British Embassy may be tried on espionage charges. The warning was issued by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the chairman of the Guardian Council, as he led Friday prayers in Tehran: "British foreign office had said last March that there may be riots during the elections in Iran and they said that they should warn their citizens to be careful. What do these predictions mean? And then some people in the U.K. embassy, who had a hand in the disturbances, were arrested and will surely be put on trial."

The context of the warning being issued in Friday prayers, rather than by a security or judiciary official, is significant --- it may even be good news for the detainees. This seems more of a political posture, reinforcing the regime's continued excuse of "foreign intervention" for its crackdown on internal dissent (see our prediction this morning in "What To Watch For Today", than a specific move towards formal prosecution.

1000 GMT: Watch Out. Both the BBC Persian service and Agence France Presse are reporting the statement of a Guardian Council member that local "staffers" of the British Embassy will be tried on espionage charges.

The plural should be noted, as earlier in the week Iranian authorities said all but one of the nine people detained had been released. And, if true, the report marks a significant escalation of tensions by Iran with Britain (though not directly with the US).

0930 GMT: Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) posts a firsthand report from Tehran:

It's kind of changed from the first week, but it's definitely not over over. it's just going to be more drawn out, I think.

It's become a lot more localized in a way. People just do what they can on their own with their circle of people. Demonstrations are smaller but in different places now. I don't know how widely circulated the information going around is but there's a pretty large amount. You can feel it with strangers even like taxi drivers.

It's not that they're less pissed. If anything, they're more pissed. Because of the state and how blatantly they're lying.

0700 GMT: More on the claim that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani declined to lead Friday prayers in Tehran last week. The original story is on a pro-Khatami, pro-Mousavi website. It is supported, according to Josh Shahryar, by one of his reliable sources.

0610 GMT: Josh Shahryar's daily "Green Brief", which we highlighted yesterday, again offers an essential overview of developments. Almost all of the items match up with information in our updates and other reliable sources. However, this item (which we will try to confirm) is both new and significant:

It has been reported that Rafsanjani, who is one of the Imams that lead Friday Prayers in Tehran's largest mosque, has declined to lead prayers there again. Last week, his spot was first filled by Khamenei, but Khamenei pulled out at the last minute leaving Ahmad Khatami to lead the prayers. Rafsanjani is not planning to attend this Friday's Prayers either.

0555 GMT: The challenge in Iran is now close to a non-story for major international outlets. There is nothing on CNN International's website and no appearance in the headlines of the BBC or Al Jazeera English. The BBC website only has a limited article on the removal of the block on SMS messaging, while Al Jazeera is still running the news from Wednesday that Mir Hossein Mousavi may face criminal charges.

Press TV English, meanwhile, is featuring the story of Israel's detention of former US Senator (and Press TV presenter) Cynthia McKinney and other activists, who were trying to break the Israeli sea blockade to get humanitarian aid to Gaza. (Ironically but significantly, the incident has been a non-story for US media.)

Audio on Hiding Gaza, Hiding Israel: The Jailing of Cynthia McKinney (and 20 Others)

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(An audio interview with Huwaida Arraf of the Free Gaza Movement, one of two activists released, and with Mairead Corrigan Maguire, who is still in jail, follows the opening paragraphs of the story.)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkPvzSZRuDo[/youtube]

On Tuesday, the news broke on Twitter: a freighter, Spirit of Humanity, carrying three tons of medical supplies, cement, olive trees, and children's toys for Gaza, had been intercepted and boarded by Israeli naval personnel. Twenty-one passengers, including former US Congressman Cynthia McKinney, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mairead Corrigan Maguire, and activists from Britain, Ireland, Bahrain, and Jamaica were detained. The Israeli Foreign Ministry said, "They will be released as soon as they are checked." However, McKinney, Maguire, and 17 others remain in custory because they refuse to sign a deportation order that says they were "trespassing" in Israeli territorial waters.

As of Friday morning, here is how many column inches The Washington Post has given to the story: 0

(The Post website has a short account on Tuesday from the Associated Press but that never made it into print.)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj5YLhMz_pI[/youtube]

And here is the attention span of The New York Times: 3 sentences, tucked away at the bottom of a story today on the Amnesty International report on "war crimes" in the Gaza War of December-January.

(The three sentences are from a longer story on the Times website, but that is not in "Today's Paper". It can only be found through a search of the "World" section on the site.)

I appreciate that the story broke at a busy time --- on Tuesday, we had one eye on Iran, another on Iraq, and if we could have borrowed someone else's eye, we would have turned that on Afghanistan-Pakistan. Others were riveted by the coup drama in Honduras. Still, you would have thought that 72 hours later, the leading US newspapers would have caught up with the drama of a freighter seized at sea and 21 international activists tossed into Israeli holding cells.

In part, the explanation may be that McKinney, stigmatised as an "extremist", a "radical", and a dangerous-to-know person during and after her time in Congress, is poison for some newspaper editors (conversely, it's probably far from incidental that Fox News, which has long targeted McKinney as a figure of derision, has been in the media lead on the story). Part of the reason might be that the drama was muted by the lack of photos and footage.

I suspect, however, there is a wider, more significant reason. Paying attention to the story also means paying attention to the cause: the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. And acknowledging the scale of the continuing economic deprivation and social destruction in that besieged territory, led by a Hamas Government that a lot of people do not want to recognise, is a step too far.

To be fair, from time to time, a Times or Post reporter will drop by the territory to file a story. It's far different, however, to link that coverage to the immediacy of political protest. So, as McKinney and others continue to refuse deportation, no doubt hoping that their jail stay will eventually be noticed, and as Israeli authorities just hope the incident will disappear, expect the Times and Post to ignore a story that is not fit to print.