The Latest from Iran (28 January): Trouble Brewing

2045 GMT: Taking the Green Out of Iran. I don't want to say the Government is in any way threatened by the Green movement, but somebody has apparently decided that, when President Ahmadinejad is speaking, the Iranian flag no longer has to be Red, White, and Green:



1630 GMT: Activist Ehsan Hushmand and 4 Kurdish students have been freed on bail.

1620 GMT: All is Well. Really. Ahmad Khatami may have tried to put out the message that Hashemi Rafsanjani and the pro-Ahmadinejad Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi have reconciled, but both Rah-e-Sabz and BBC Persian are claiming that Khatami has been pressing Rafsanjani not to publish his letter of grievance over Yazdi's allegations of Rafsanjani's irresponsibility and ambiguity.

1610 GMT: At Tehran Bureau, Setareh Sabety posts a poem reflecting on the executions of two "monarchists" (see 0940 GMT), "They Did Not Hang My Son Today".

1605 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? So how does President Ahmadinejad respond to the growing today? Well, with this declaration to officials in Tehran: “They (imperialist powers) seek to dominate energy resources of the Middle East....But the Iranian nation and other nations will not allow them to be successful."

1600 GMT: Let Mehdi Make This Perfectly Clear. We can no longer keep up with Mehdi Karroubi as he hammers home his attack against the Ahmadinejad Government. We have posted his latest interview, this one with Saham News.

1530 GMT: The Dead and Detained. The Guardian of London has updated its list of those killed and arrested in the post-election crisis. There are now 1259 people, arranged alphabetically by first name.

1525 GMT: All is Well Alert. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami wants everyone to know that Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, who only a few days ago slammed Rafsanjani's ambiguity, have made up and are now very good friends.

NEW Iran Document: Karroubi Maintains the Pressure (28 January)
NEW Iran Document: Resignation Letter of Diplomat in Japan “Join the People”
NEW Iran Document/Analysis: Karroubi’s Statement on the Political Situation (27 January)
NEW Iran Analysis: Leadership in the Green Movement
NEW Latest Iran Video: When Karroubi Met Fars (25 January)
NEW Iran & Karroubi: Why This is “Much Ado About Something”
The Latest from Iran (27 January): Battle Renewed

Beyond our smile, the possible significance: Government supporters are signalling to Rafsanjani that they will reduce the pressure on his family if he joins forces with them.

1520 GMT: We have posted the English translation of the resignation letter of an Iranian diplomat in Japan, asking his colleagues to "Join the People".

1000 GMT: Obama's State of the Union --- Nukes Trumps Rights. We'll have full analysis tomorrow of President Obama's speech (video and transcript in separate entry). Let's just say now that anyone expecting a boost or even a thumbs-up to the Iranian opposition will be disappointed.

Obama made only two references to Iran, and the primary one was to support his two-prong approach of engagement/sanctions on the nuclear issue:

These diplomatic efforts have...strengthened our hand in dealing with those nations that insist on violating international agreements in pursuit of these weapons....That is why the international community is more united, and the Islamic Republic of Iran is more isolated. And as Iran’s leaders continue to ignore their obligations, there should be no doubt: They, too, will face growing consequences.

Later in the speech was this fleeting reference:

We stand with the girl who yearns to go to school in Afghanistan, we support the human rights of the women marching through the streets of Iran, and we advocate for the young man denied a job by corruption in Guinea. For America must always stand on the side of freedom and human dignity.

0940 GMT: The Executions. The Iranian Students News Agency identifies the two demonstrators killed this morning, for "mohareb" (war against God), as Mohammad Reza Ali-Zamani and Arash Rahmanipour. Both had been detained before the elections as members of an outlawed monarchist group, and both had been put on television in a special Press TV documentary in August to "confess" (see separate EA video).

However, what is unsubtle is the further twisting of the two cases to fit the more recent show of resistance to the regime. The Tehran Prosecutor's office declared:

Following the riots and anti-revolutionary measures in recent months, particularly on the day of Ashura, a Tehran Islamic Revolutionary Court branch considered the cases of a number of accused and handed down death sentences against 11 of those. The sentences against two of these people... were carried out today at dawn and the accused were hanged.

The sentences for the other nine of the accused in recent months' riots are at the appeal stage... upon confirmation, measures will be undertaken to implement the sentences.

0925 GMT: As I make my way back from Dublin, two important pieces on EA:

We've posted extracts from Mehdi Karroubi's lengthy interview with the Financial Times of London, adding a snap analysis. The discussion seems to clarify Karroubi's position after this week's drama: he wants Ahmadinejad out and, while adhering to the Islamic system, he wants the Supreme Leader to be the man to defend the Constitution by pushing the President off the political cliff.

Alongside this, and indeed offering a contrast, is a guest analysis from Elham Gheytanchi on "Leadership and the Green Movement": "The Green Movement...has avoided centralized leadership and instead has mobilized ordinary people beyond what was previously thought possible."

0740 GMT: Britain's Sky News is reporting, from Iranian state media, that two Ashura demonstrators have been executed.

0700 GMT: A gentler --- if that is a word which can ever be applied to Iran's post-election crisis --- news day on Wednesday. There were no high-profile statements, and none of the drama of the Karroubi declaration of Monday.

Still, there were rumblings, most of which brought further bad omens for President Ahmadinejad.

There are reports that the Number One Target of both the "conservative" and "reformist" opposition, former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed
Mortazavi, will not take up his position as head of the President's unit to combat smuggling. That brings Mortazavi one step closer to taking the public responsibility for the detainee abuses, especially at Kahrizak Prison. And the other primary target of the anti-Ahmadinejad forces, advisor Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, was attacked in the newspaper Mardomsalari.

On the economic front, Ahmadinejad's subsidy reduction proposal is beginning to run into trouble with Parliament. Three days into the 10-day period to comment on the President's Development Plan, legislators forced the Government to withdraw "income bracketing" for the subsidy cuts.

And another foreign firm, a US chemical company, has declared that it is ending any involvement in Iran.

There was a piece of good news for the opposition, with journalist Mehdi Hosseinzadeh released after more than 7 months in detention. However, Persian2English posts on the "catastrophic situation" in Section 350 of Evin Prison.

Comments

[Hossein]

Lots of confusion and lots of rumors about money, cash, banks, and that money is taken away by the top echelons who will run, dar hal farar. very few have any confidence in the IRI, that anything they say or do is correct, majority believe and now firmly and more than ever, that whatever the IRI says and spreads through their media is false. TV, Keyhan, Hamvatan, and almost all the rest only lie, and that is what the people believe.

[pessimist]

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/01/they-did-not-hang-my-son-today.html

To this beautiful poem I added my meager contribution, but while writing it I thought that these poor people because of their downright innocence and criminal use by those stupid idiots, it can be turned around and become an international outcry (today on French TV they showed it, as elsewhere), and disgust by the majority of observers, and they will also become symbols of the barbarity of this regime, just as Neda was/is. This must be used in any way possible to prevent other imminent executions !

Shame, shame, on all those who are bickering among themselves for power, while nobody cares about those who are murdered under their noses!

I haven't written a poem in 40 years, in fact it's the poetic influence of Iranians that inspired me.

[pessimist]

on a lighter note:

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=117228&sectionid=351020101#foc

Iran offers solutions for the world's economic problems

[Megan]

Iran Press News has posted this video of protest in Vali Asr. It says people were protesting execution of the two young men were executed today but the date on the video shows Jan. 27. You can hear people chanting Marg Br Khamenei (death to Khamenei) http://www.iranpressnews.com/source/072008.htm

[Megan]

Hossein,

I am so sorry to see two more lives were cut short by these savage gang terrorizing Iranians. They scarified these two men to scare people to prevent protest of 22 Bahman. Please tell us how people see these two executions and if it is going to break people resolve.

Please take care and stay safe.

[Megan]

I am listening to rebroadcast of Allah Akbar that was heard at 9:00 PM Tehran time on January 28 in protest to the two executions of a few (3-4) hours earlier. A correspondent had called into the radio station from East of Tehran and had let the chant to be aired.

There are two important points 1) within a few hours following the execution the news had spread and people had been able to spread the news and launch the Allah Akbar protest, 2) The chant was coming from East of Tehran. And as I recall East of Tehran used to be populated by mostly low income blue-collar working class conservative people.

[The Latest from Iran (28 Janua]

[...] is the original: The Latest from Iran (28 January): Trouble Brewing | Enduring America Share and [...]

[Heidar]

As the rest of you, I feel very sad about these two executions. The fact that one of them was only 19 years old is devastating, my thoughts go to their families.

For people praising Turkish "democracy" as a model for a future Iran:
Apparently a 15 year old girl has been sentenced 8 years in jail for hurling stones and chanting "illegal slogans" at protests in October. http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=117292&sectionid=351020204 (Not the best source, sorry) Compare with the case of Majid Tavakoli.

I hope these innocent young people can recover after so many years in jail.

[Megan]

Barry,
I have not had time yet to read the link of persian2english re banking crisis. I listened to Dr. Shojaei, an economist, as well as a caller from Tehran who was a university professor and an economist who reported the banking crisis was very real.

I understand the banking crisis is not new but recently has been exasperated by a move by government to devalue the Rail (Iran currency) by one thousand units. This means one thousand Rails will become one Rail. The news of devaluation has made people concerned and they have decided to rush to the banks, withdraw their savings and exchange it with foreign currency. Wealthy people have been transferring their liquid assets to banks outside Iran for months. And now it is the average Joe and average Jane who are taking their money out.

[Hossein]

The resolve is not broken, it is intensified and strengthened. A young man, when asked about the killings and the torture and the rapes, simply said "bayad baha dad," we must pay the price for freedom. I was so moved when I heard this. The movement, and the intensity of the people and especially the young women and men who follow them, has taken over all of Iran. I dare to be optimistic, too, of the outcome, for it must. This inhuman, barbaric regime of petty fascist thugs cannot continue, and the western world should come up with the same level of resolve and not dilly dally. I must sound the alarm as hard as I can humanity will suffer if the IRI goes on killing and raping. For that is the only thing it knows. There has been no prosperity, not truth, no basic construction, only destruction and of course stealing as the way they know best. All they do is centered on how a few can steal more. Put this to the IRI and if there is anyone left with a small amount even of conscience they must in their private moments nod in agreement to what I have said which is but a minor expression of the actual state of things. I must add, shame on anyone who once thought they were human and is part of the IRI's killing, raping, torturing, stealing, lying, machine. Shame! And, shame on those who are learned and are pretending, such as scholars who lie and bow to the thugs. Shame!

[Megan]

Greeny,

Mohareb is not synonymous to monarchist. Mohareb in regime vocabulary of means enemy of God. In their sick mind they believe they are divine and their power is from God. Anyone who rises against them is enemy of God- that includes all political persuasions.

[Megan]

I apologize for my post at 01:49.

The video in that post is not dated January 27, 2010; it is December 27, 2009. Iran Press News had posted it today with a caption that said “you (regime) executed to scare people?” and I thought this video was related to today’s execution and did not read the date of the video carefully. Sorry about that.

[Greeny]

Mega,

Re. “Mohareb is not synonymous to monarchist.”

I did not say that mohareb and monarchist are the same. The former is a term used in religious context to label people as enemies of god to justify killing them. While the latter is a political term used to label people as supporting monarchy as the form of government (which is made out to be a damning word).

Having said all this, the two who were executed on Thursday were originally accused of being monarchists who had been involved in a bomb attack in Shirza long before the elections. There is no evidence to prove that any “monarchist” group was behind the attack; there was a lot of official confusion originally whether it was a bomb attack at all (if you recall at the time, many IR officials were saying that the explosion in Shiraz was not terrorist related but accidental catching fire of a heater). Even if it was a bomb, there is also no evidence to prove that the two executed men had anything to do with that explosion. It looks like these two were not involved with anything at all. They seem to have been just two people who were picked on (pawns as Scott called them earlier in this thread) by the security forces long before the June elections. Maybe to set them up and to use them in case trouble brewed after the elections, if we are to believe that the election fraud was planned well in advance (in which case it begs the question, why was it implemented so badly?).

My point is that the regime is presenting these to victims as monarchist mohareb (hence “... be labelled as supporting the monarchist “mohareb”” in my post above). This is similar to attributing the recent bomb attack to monarchist groups, or claiming that Neda Agha Soltan took part in her own murder, or claiming that the murdered protestors were killed by CIA provided guns and bullets, or claiming that the police vehicles that ran over people on Ashura were stolen, or claims that the rape victims of Kahrizak actually raped each other, or claiming that those who beat people up were not the police but wearing stolen police uniforms, or claiming that Saiid Emami was rouge agent working alone,... (I can go on and on and the list will not be complete). My point is that SL & co are very desperate and want to stick the label of monarchist mohareb on the IR reformists to scare them away from protesting against the state of affairs.

They think that if the reformists back away, their problems will get resolved. As I have said before, they are missing to account for one factor: the people.

[Niaz]

Actually one can be forced to confess to anything under so much torture. They go as far as executing innocent youth! This is not something new....these forced confessions existed in 80s, 90s, and now....not just for political crimes but also for other crimes, like murder or theft, many times innocent people are forced to confess....they rather be executed than continue the life under torture...many judges are also selected from the most brutal and crazy one!!!!.....It is unfortunately a sick system!

[florence achard]

Greeny,
thanks for your answer on
28 January 2010 at 23:07
I agree with all you say, especially the end of your message (If they (Karoubi, Mousavi, etc) are helpful, good. If they’re not helpful, the people will still do their own thing.)
I just wanted to point out the fact that I don't think Karroubi and Mousavi should be totally trusted and I sometimes fear they might manage to lure the people back into the IR jail and confuse them and make them lose their momentum by offering them false solutions "within the framework of the system blah blah blah...."
Frankly, aren't you sick (you and other readers) of all these praise to the divine Khomeiny?

[Heidar]

I really don't understand all the fuzz about the Iranian flag! The flag is blue because it fades into the blue skies in the background, or am I wrong? The flag next to Ahmadinejad seems to be red, White, and Green.

[pessimist]

hossein, others

The more one hears their official speeches, one could think that they didn't get a proper education, they have a problem with vocabulary, they use the words 'revolution' and 'enemy' at least a thousand times more often than any other word. This is simple to evaluate, they are robots.

[Baffled]

[Deleted by moderator --- Carpe Diem/Realist/Fantasist/Fantasy Check/etc., choose one username and stick with it.]

[Puzzling Over a Red, White and]

[...] Thursday Mr. Lucas posted a photograph of Mr. Ahmadinejad taken by a state news agency in which he was seen speaking to the organizers of an Iranian film [...]