The Latest from Iran (1 September): After the Summit

See also Iran Feature: How News and Social Media Are Changing --- An Interview with Jahanshah Javid
Will Israel Attack Iran? --- Daniella Peled and Scott Lucas on Monocle 24
Iran Propaganda 101: Press TV Re-Arranges Ban Ki-Moon's Words
The Latest from Iran (31 August): The Failure of the Charm Offensive

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2124 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Back from a day out to find a couple of intriguing perspectives on Iran's nuclear programme and the possibility of an Israeli attack....

Gareth Porter takes a closer look at the briefing of the latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency to argue that Tehran has decreased the amount of enriched uranium that could be diverted to military purposes:

The data in the two reports indicate that Iran increased the total production of 20-percent enriched uranium from 143 kg in May 2012 to 189.4 kg in mid-August. But the total stockpile of 20-percent enriched uranium that could be more easily enriched to weapons grade – and which has been the focus of U.S. diplomatic demands on Iran ever since 2009 – fell from 101 kg to 91.4 kg during the quarter.

The reduction in the stockpile available for weapons grade enrichment was the result of the conversion of 53.3 kg of 20-percent enriched uranium into fuel plates --- compared with only 43 kg in the previous five months.

Iran was thus creating fuel plates for its medical reactor faster than it was enriching uranium to a 20-percent level.

And reporters for Time magazine, drawing from US and Israeli officials, assert that Washington is limiting participation in a major military exercise with the Israelis to warn them against a strike on Tehran:

Seven months ago, Israel and the United States postponed a massive joint military exercise that was originally set to go forward just as concerns were brimming that Israel would launch a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The exercise was rescheduled for late October, and appears likely to go forward on the cusp of the U.S. presidential election. But it won’t be nearly the same exercise. Well-placed sources in both countries have told TIME that Washington has greatly reduced the scale of U.S. participation, slashing by more than two-thirds the number of American troops going to Israel and reducing both the number and potency of missile interception systems at the core of the joint exercise.

“Basically what the Americans are saying is, ‘We don’t trust you,’” a senior Israeli military official tells TIME.

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The Latest from Iran: Nuclear Talks Resume With IAEA

See also The Latest from Iran (23 August): Arrested...for Helping Earthquake Victims

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1936 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Talks between Iranian officials and the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna have not resolved outstanding issues over inspection and supervision.

"The discussions today were intensive but important differences remain between Iran and the U.N. that prevented agreement," Herman Nackaerts, the IAEA's chief inspector, said after about seven hours of talks. "At the moment we have no plans for another meeting."

Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, was more upbeat: "Undoubtedly some progress [was made]....I have to say that we are moving forward...and we are going to continue this process so that we at the end of the day will have a framework agreed by both sides."

Soltanieh rationalised the failure to get an agreement today, "Because it is a very complex issue...Issues related to national security of a member state are something very delicate."

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The Latest from Iran (9 June): Spiralling to a Nuclear Breakdown

See also Iran Interview: Rapper Shahin Najafi on His Music, the "Death Fatwa"...and Kurt Cobain
The Latest from Iran (8 June): Preparing for the Fallout

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2032 GMT: CyberWatch. Iranian police have claimed that computer experts have tracked an April cyber-attack on Ministry of Oil computers to two IP addresses in the US.

Police General Seyed Kamal Hadianfar said the US should disclose the identities of the two IPs to Iran so that the country can identify those who have embarked on the act of sabotage and file a lawsuit against them.

1649 GMT: Economy Watch. A sign of nerves that the nuclear talks are collapsing? The Tehran Stock Exchange has fallen 270 points today to 26365.

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The Latest from Iran (8 June): Preparing for the Fallout

See also Iran Analysis: US Officials on Nuke Talks "We Have A Cunning Plan" (Not Really.)
The Latest from Iran (7 June): Nuclear Talks Fallout

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1705 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The International Atomic Energy Agency has said that no progress was made in "disappointing" talks with Iranian officials today at at IAEA headquarters in Vienna.

Herman Nackaerts, the IAEA's global head of inspections, said no further talks had been set.

1642 GMT: Loyalty Watch. Ali Saeedi, Ayatollah Khamenei's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, has said that the Islamic Republic's leadership is exercised on the three levels of prophets, Imams, and velayat-e faqih, the system in which the Supreme Leader's rule is paramount, that are equivalent.

Saeedi continued that obeying velayat-e faqih is required (vajeb) and that religious rule has no value without the Supreme Leader.

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The Latest from Iran (6 June): The Oil Squeeze

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From #SaveMaleki to the "Shoot the Apostate" Video Games
Russia Audio Feature: Moscow's Manoeuvres With Iran --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
The Latest from Iran (5 June): The House Arrests

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2028 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amir Hossein Alavi, a member of the student alumni group Advar Tahkim Vahdat and a supporter of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been arrested after being summoned to Zanjan’s Intelligence Bureau.

1913 GMT: Devious West Watch. Sohrab Salehi, the head of the Basij Professors Organization has asserted that, by imposing sanctions, the West wants to present the Supreme Leader as the main cause of inflation in Iran.

Look for more of this in the near-future from higher-level officials. If the nuclear talks collapse --- which I think is probable, given today's signals --- and when the European Union's cut-off of imports of Iranian oil takes effect from 1 July, the Islamic Republic's officials will need someone to break for the escalating economic tensions in Iran. Since that "someone" cannot be Ayatollah Khamenei, the "West" will have the lead role of villain.

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The Latest from Iran (26 May): Propaganda Watch

See also Iran Snap Analysis: Propaganda, Negotiations, and the Economic Ties That Bind
Friday's The Latest from Iran (25 May): On to The "Last Chance" Nuclear Talks in Moscow

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1605 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Laura Rozen adds valuable detail to our news and analysis of the nuclear talks in Baghdad. She describes how there nearly was no agreement to another meeting in Moscow --- some of the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) were pushing for a harder line than others on the language to be offered to the Iranians in a statement summarising Baghdad's discussions and looking to the future.

In the end, the European Union's Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1, worked out a compromise text. In her press conference at the end of the meetings, she said, "Significant gaps remain" between Iran and the 5+1, but there was enough common ground for another round of talks.

Ashton reportedly used the Iraqi hosts and the Chinese and Russian delegations to ensure the acceptance of the Iranians, who proposed Astana in Kazakhstan, Beijing, or Moscow as the next venue.

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The Latest from Iran (25 May): On to The "Last Chance" Nuclear Talks in Moscow

Nikahang Kowsar on "time" and the Supreme Leader after the Baghdad nuclear talks

See also Iran Analysis: 4 Lessons of The Baghdad Nuclear Talks...And What's Next
Iran Document: Statement By EU's Catherine Ashton After Baghdad Talks
The Latest from Iran (24 May): Day 2 of the Nuclear Talks in Baghdad

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1803 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Journalist Scott Peterson has a telling follow-up quote from an Iranian diplomat who was speaking with him throughout the Baghdad talks, "I think [they were] a complete failure, in terms of content. The more they talk, the worse it gets."

Peterson's description makes clear that a tough opening proposal by the 5+1 Powers did not include a reference to easing of sanctions or a recognition of the level of enrichment that would be acceptable inside Iran.

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The Latest from Iran (22 May): Tehran Plays Up Hope for Nuclear Talks

See also The Latest from Iran (21 May): A Freudian Slip on the Economy

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Yukiya Amano and Saeed Jalili2009 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Iran continues to be upbeat about tomorrow's nuclear discussions, “Tehran is optimistic that the Baghdad talks would be a good start to promote cooperation in international, regional and nuclear issues."

However, this inside story from Laura Rozen and Barbara Slavin of Al Monitor may put a damper on expectations:

The United States and its negotiating partners have agreed on a detailed confidence-building proposal to offer to Iran at nuclear negotiations due to get underway Wednesday in Baghdad. The proposed package is an updated version of a 2009 uranium fuel swap proposal that takes into account Iran’s progress in enriching uranium, American, Russian and European diplomats said.

While the details of the proposed package have not been made public, Western officials told Al Monitor that the package does not include sanctions relief at this stage.

Iranian officials and State media have made clear that a significant easing of US-led sanctions, including a pause on the European Union's suspension of Iranian oil imports --- due to start 1 July --- must be on the table.

This is excluded from the proposal put out via Rozen:

Instead, the United States and its P5+1 partners will offer fuel for Tehran’s Research Reactor (TRR) plus safety upgrades to the plant, which is of 1960s vintage. Also potentially on the table: new research reactors that use lower level 3.5 percent enriched uranium, safety upgrades for Iran’s one functioning nuclear power plant at Bushehr and spare parts for its accident-plagued fleet of civilian airliners.

In return, Iran must stop producing uranium enriched to 20 percent and halt activities at Fordow, an enrichment facility built into a mountain near Qom. It is not clear whether Iran would also have to send out its stockpile of more than 100 kg of the fuel.

A "current American official sets out the line, "If we talk substantively on elements of a deal and agree to meet again in three weeks, Baghdad will have been a success. Just hope the Iranians are not deluding themselves they are going to get sanctions relief now—that’s not going to happen at this stage.”

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The Latest from Iran (21 May): A Freudian Slip on the Economy

See also The Latest from Iran (20 May): A Tip of the Hat to President Obama?

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1824 GMT:. Fraud Watch. In the 11th hearing in the trial of dozens of defendants over a $2.6 billion bank fraud, a former deputy at the Ministry of Industry has accused Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of Parliament's National Security Committee, of involvement.

1813 GMT: Death to the Rapper Watch. Hojatoleslam Mohammad Jafar Montazeri, the head of the Administration Court, is the latest cleric to call for the killing of rapper Shahin Najafi because of his "insult to Imams" with his song "Naqi".

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The Latest from Iran (18 May): Helping Damascus

The regime-supported rally denouncing the US and Saudi Arabia over Bahrain (see 1359 GMT)

See also Iran Special: The Nuclear Scientist, WikiLeaks, and the Executed Kickboxer
Iran Feature: How Tehran is Shipping Syria's Oil
The Latest from Iran (17 May): Arms to Syria?

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1948 GMT: The Bahrain Card. More about the regime's propaganda offensive based on the (now dormant) Saudi initative for "union" with Bahrain....

One of the Tehran Friday Prayers leaders, Ayatollah Emami Kashani, has said that the Bahraini people, "thanks to their alertness", will not allow the US "and its mercenaries" to implement the union.

Far more colourful is the declaration of the head of the Basij militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, “Al Khalifa and Al Saud regimes should come to realize that their American masters are simply looking for new lackeys in the region. What happened ultimately to Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Saddam Hussein, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak and other dictators, now awaits them.”

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