A Beginner's Tour of the US Elections: Early Voting, The Toss-Up Races, and the Loss of Moderation

As EA has looked at some of the races, and issues, that will determine who will control the US Congress come 3 November, large numbers of voters have already gone to the polls and cast their ballot. Procedures vary from state to state, but estimates suggest that fully 30% of the votes in these mid-terms will be made before the traditional focus of Election Day.

Early voting is worth noting because it is contributing to a major shift that is occurring in American politics: the increasing inability of politicians to present themselves, or act in Washington as, moderate politicians.

Here are the eight toss-up elections, with the latest polling figures, which will decide which party controls the next Senate --- currently there are 57 Democrats, 2 Democrat-allied Independents, and 41 Republicans. We profiled Nevada and Kentucky last week; here are the six others....

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A Beginner's Tour of the US Elections: The Power of the Majority and the Senate Race in Nevada

The election in Nevada may well see the ousting of Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader, either by his loss to Angle or by the Republicans winning enough of the seven other toss-up seats to relegate him to a member of the minority. Either way, one thing is certain: neither party will achieve the super-majority of 60 Senators needed to ensure the passage of controversial legislation in the next Congress by defeating any filibuster. If Reid survives as Majority Leader, Democrats will have a greater chance of proposing liberal legislation, but as current Senate rules, they stand little chance of passing them. A Republican Majority Leader, despite the advantages of controlling the composition of Senate committees, will face a similar predicament when it comes to passing conservative legislation.

In fact, unless the Senate miraculously rediscovers the bipartisan tone of compromise it once possessed, it is hard to see what either party with a simple majority can hope to accomplish in the next two years.

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A Beginner's Tour of the US Elections: The "Progressive Idea" and the Senate Race in Wisconsin

Last year there seemed little likelihood there would even be a close contest in Wisconsin. The incumbent Russ Feingold is a Democrat who has been a Senator for eighteen years, in a state that has voted Democrat in the last six presidential elections (56% for Obama in 2008). Moreover, Feingold, co-sponsor of the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Refrom Act, is a liberal politician known for sticking to his progressive values. He voted against the Patriot Act setting out internal security measures after 9-11, opposed the war in Iraq, and has been a consistent voice against the influence of money in elections. His campaign has not been damaged by any personal scandal, and the general reputation he enjoys is of an honest and independent politician in Washington.

And yet, the latest polls show him trailing his Republican opponent Ron Johnson by an average of 7% in the polls. The prominent FiveThirtyEight electoral website currently forecasts a 94% chance of a Republican win. This is all the more surprising because the Republican candidate has no record in politics, deciding to run for his first electoral office last year as a response to the health care reform that Feingold supported.

Johnson, a successful businessman, has managed to turn the electorate’s disillusionment with the progressive ideology of President Obama to his advantage. Though not as nationally well known as Sharron Angle in Nevada, Rand Paul in Kentucky, or Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, he is fighting on the same platform that government is out of control, run by politicians who regard the people as their servants instead of the other way around.

It is Wisconsin that best illustrates the nation’s discontent with the progressive view of government.

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