The Latest from Iran (11 June): A Fraud Case Reaches the Government

2030 GMT: Fraud Watch. Next week's Moscow talks on Iran's nuclear programme will proceed after European Union foreign policy representative Catherine Ashton and top Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili spoke for one hour on the phone tonight.

There was chatter that the discussions were in jeopardy after days of increasingly negative exchanges in the media between the two sides, but a Western diplomat said, “Moscow is a green light."

A European diplomat maintained that the US and Europe had held the line on no preparatory talks before Moscow, unless Iran discussed issues of political substance: “Jalili went on and on about need for a technical meeting. Ashton stayed firm.” He continued:

[The Iranians] have now backed down from that and appear prepared to engage on our proposals, which is important for us. We will respond to their ideas --- note the different terminology. We have concrete proposals, they have issues/ideas.

A spokesman for Ashton set out the apparent deal: Ashton and Jalili “agreed on the need for Iran to engage on the E3+3 proposals", while Ashton "conveyed the E3+3′s readiness to respond to the issues raised by the Iranians in Baghdad".

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The Latest from Iran (7 June): Nuclear Talks Fallout

See also Iran Letter: An Appeal for the Iranian Journalists and Activists in Turkey
The Latest from Iran (6 June): The Oil Squeeze

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2025 GMT: Book Corner. Bahman Dorri, a deputy in the Ministry of Culture, has said that the prominent publishing house Cheshmeh lost its license because it "insulted religious beliefs".

2011 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. While President Ahmadinejad is in Beijing trying to bolster his domestic position by displaying his international status, his critics are offering a challenge.

Following the disruption of the President's speech last weekend on the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death, Tehran Friday Prayers leader Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, the temporary , has criticised Ahmadinejad for strengthening the sense of Iranian nationalism, rather than an Islam-first approach: "He either does not read the Qur'an or does not understand the Shahnameh [the "Book of Kings" by the poet Ferdowsi].”

Khatami added, “For 33 years, religion has run this country. Those who are in power today should be careful about what they say. Strengthening the sense of nationalism is one of [President] Obama’s priorities."

On another front, Mustafa Pourmohammadi, Iran's Inspector General, has again accused Ahmadinejad of preventing investigations into the $2.6 billion bank fraud: "The Government tried so hard to prevent the outbreak of the fraud news in the first place and then the follow-up investigations with the excuse that this case will harm the economic system.”

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The Latest from Iran (6 June): The Oil Squeeze

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From #SaveMaleki to the "Shoot the Apostate" Video Games
Russia Audio Feature: Moscow's Manoeuvres With Iran --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
The Latest from Iran (5 June): The House Arrests

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2028 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amir Hossein Alavi, a member of the student alumni group Advar Tahkim Vahdat and a supporter of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been arrested after being summoned to Zanjan’s Intelligence Bureau.

1913 GMT: Devious West Watch. Sohrab Salehi, the head of the Basij Professors Organization has asserted that, by imposing sanctions, the West wants to present the Supreme Leader as the main cause of inflation in Iran.

Look for more of this in the near-future from higher-level officials. If the nuclear talks collapse --- which I think is probable, given today's signals --- and when the European Union's cut-off of imports of Iranian oil takes effect from 1 July, the Islamic Republic's officials will need someone to break for the escalating economic tensions in Iran. Since that "someone" cannot be Ayatollah Khamenei, the "West" will have the lead role of villain.

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Iran Special: Tehran's View of Nuclear Talks --- Insight, Propaganda, or Self-Deception?

The Iranian belief --- if it is is genuine --- that it still has some leverage because of European weakness and fear is significant. It indicates that Tehran will persist with a defiant approach in Moscow. If it even chooses to address the nuclear issue as central, it will restate its demand not only for some enrichment of uranium on its soil, but for enrichment to 20% --- the level beyond bounds for the 5+1 Powers. It will refuse any reduction of activity at the Fordoo enrichment activity, let alone the closure demanded by the US and the Europeans. It will offer no concession, ahead of an easing of sanctions, over inspections and safeguards by the IAEA.

The Islamic Republic will offer none of this because it believes that it can win the game of diplomatic "chicken". The Moscow talks will break up with no advance.

Two weeks later, it will be 1 July and the imposition of the European Union's cut-off of Iranian oil. Then we will see if propaganda and mis-perception gives way to cold economic reality.

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The Latest from Iran (30 May): Profiting from the Sanctions

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From House of Cinema to "Forbidden City"
The Latest from Iran (29 May): Putting Parliament in Place

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2015 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Muhammad Sahimi has provided a translation of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's interview with Jomhouri Eslami about the nuclear talks. Like others within the regime, Rafsanjani portrays the Obama Administration --- despite its weapon of sanctions --- as dealing from weakness, in this case setbacks in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, his assessment of tactics in last week's Baghdad discussions is a shrewd assessment, rather than a promotion of Islamic Republic triumph or US perfidy:

It appears that they [the P5+1] are united for the negotiations. Even China and Russia have said that Iran must stop uranium enrichment. In the past they never applied such pressure, and this has made the situation somewhat difficult.

After the Istanbul meeting [on 14 April], both Iran and the West made statements that created false optimism. We wanted to create some hope in the country, and the Westerners, due to the economic problems that they have, needed the negotiations. But it became clear in Baghdad that things are not that way. We still do not have complete information, and it is not easy to evaluate and analyze. What is clear is that they have come forward with the weapon of sanctions and say that, using them, we have forced Iran to come to the negotiation table.

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The Latest from Iran (25 May): On to The "Last Chance" Nuclear Talks in Moscow

Nikahang Kowsar on "time" and the Supreme Leader after the Baghdad nuclear talks

See also Iran Analysis: 4 Lessons of The Baghdad Nuclear Talks...And What's Next
Iran Document: Statement By EU's Catherine Ashton After Baghdad Talks
The Latest from Iran (24 May): Day 2 of the Nuclear Talks in Baghdad

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1803 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Journalist Scott Peterson has a telling follow-up quote from an Iranian diplomat who was speaking with him throughout the Baghdad talks, "I think [they were] a complete failure, in terms of content. The more they talk, the worse it gets."

Peterson's description makes clear that a tough opening proposal by the 5+1 Powers did not include a reference to easing of sanctions or a recognition of the level of enrichment that would be acceptable inside Iran.

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Iran Analysis: 4 Lessons of The Baghdad Nuclear Talks...And What's Next

Iran Delegation at Baghdad TalksWe are in the political and diplomatic equivalent of the game of "chicken", in which "two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash".

Do the US and Europe let up on the accelerator on pressure? Does the Islamic Republic turn away? Or are both sides willing to risk the crash, because "if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a chicken"?

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Iran Special: Statement By EU's Catherine Ashton After E3+3 Talks

See also The Latest from Iran (24 May): Day 2 of the Nuclear Talks in Baghdad

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The E3+3 (sometimes known as the 5+1 Powers) talks with Iran about its nuclear program have ended in Baghdad. The parties have agreed to meet in Moscow on 18-19 June to continue the discussions. The statement of the European Union's Catherine Asthon:

Having held in-depth discussions with our Iranian counterparts over two
days --- both in full plenary sessions and bilaterals --- it is clear that we
both want to make progress, and that there is some common ground. However,
significant differences remain. Nonetheless, we do agree on the need for
further discussion to expand that common ground.

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The Latest from Iran (24 May): Day 2 of the Nuclear Talks in Baghdad

See also Iran Special: Statement By EU's Catherine Ashton After Baghdad Talks
Iran Snap Analysis: A Way Out of Pessimism for the Nuclear Talks?
The Latest from Iran (23 May): Nuclear Talks in Baghdad

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EU's Catherine Ashton & Iran's Saeed Jalili1925 GMT: Nuclear Watch Special. Back from a break for a run to find the confirmation by the European Union's Catherine Ashton --- see statement in separate feature --- that there will be a third set of nuclear discussions, in Moscow on 18-19 June, between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China).

There is much more to the statement, however. We will have a special analysis tomorrow, but note for now:

1. Ashton tipped off the large gap between the 5+1 Powers and Iran on approach and proposals. The US and Europe effectively said, "We will only talk easing of sanctions after you give us what we want on your uranium enrichment." Iran said at the same time, "Ease the sanctions and then we will consider giving you what you want."

2. This gap was so wide that the Iranians were on the point of walking away from the talks on Wednesday night. Ashton's emergency session with Iran's Saeed Jalili --- almost two hours --- plus intervention from China and Russia probably averted that breakdown.

3. Moscow as a location for the next talks is a concession to Iran for continuing to talk. So is the date --- the discussions come two weeks before the European Union is scheduled to ban imports of Iranian oil.

4. But Moscow is now "make or break". Either the US and Europe find enough to reverse the 1 July ban on Iranian oil, or the negotiations will break down with Iran's declaration that the West will accept nothing less than its capitulation.

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The Latest from Iran (17 April): Splitting Europe from the US Over Nukes and Sanctions

Protesting steel workers outside Ministry of Industry on Monday

See also Iran Special: The Inside Story of the Nuclear Talks in Istanbul
The Latest from Iran (16 April): A Common Understanding?

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1805 GMT: Student Watch. Iranian student organisations have asked the public to support their protests against the imprisonment of young activists. In a campaign called “Be the Voice of Enchained Students”, they declared:

The office of Tahkim-e Vahdat and Danesh Amoukhtegan Organization of Iran, while expressing disgust over the continued imprisonment of political prisoners and the house arrest of the leaders of the Green Movement, celebrate the perseverance of the 29 enchained students and protest against their continued imprisonment, as we urge support for these detainees from universities, human rights and civic organizations and Iranians inside and outside the country

The statement called for “academic freedom” and the return of the detained students to their classes and universities.

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