US Politics Feature: Can Super-Committee "Get It Done" on Debt Reduction? The Signs Say No

The "Super Committee"Next Thursday, the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction --- the so-called Super Committee --- begins in earnest its search for $1.5 trillion or more in cuts to the national debt over the next ten years. Its first item, “Overview: Revenue Options and Reforming the Tax Code", will look at ways that the code can be simplified through the elimination of many tax "breaks" currently enjoyed by both individuals and corporations. No surprise there: proposals for tax reform, of varying scales, have been included in every deficit reduction plan that has appeared since the publication of the  Bowles-Simpson report in January, and both sides of the political divide have made noises over the past year that they are willing to consider changes in the way Americans are taxed to help stabilise the debt.

But that is as optimistic, for those who actually want to see the committee achieve its goal, as it gets these days in Washington. Already, the two political parties are staking the same rhetorical and ideological positions on revenues that soured the debt-ceiling negotiations back in July, talks that resulted in historic nationwide disapproval of politicians in Congress.

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US Politics Analysis: Obama Finally Talks of Jobs Fight, But Will He Last 15 Rounds?

If he does not fight for this plan with all the means at his disposal --- and that means no more conciliatory Mr. President ---  he will be deserted by droves of progressives for his latest betrayal of the Take Back the Dream movement. Conversely, if this speech marks the moment President Obama switched to a more confrontational style of politics, we are in for a rollicking fourteen months in Washington before the next election.

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US Economy Special Analysis: America's Credit Rating is Downgraded --- And It May Happen Again

S&P have made it clear in their  press release that this downgrade could be just the first step, with a further reduction to AA if certain policy changes are not made in Washington. Thisis no surprise: S&P had warned since April that if no long-term plan to halt America's soaring debt was put in place, then a downgrade would be the response. Politicians in Washington ignored that caution, and it will be interesting to see how those same politicians will react to the conditions S&P are setting out to avoid a further downgrade.

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US Politics & Economy: Scott Lucas on the BBC "Playing 'Win & Lose' with the Debt Crisis"

I joined BBC Radio Wales this morning in more discussion of the agreement, signed by President Obama yesterday, to raise the US Government's debt ceiling.

The lessons from the chat, which also includes the Vice-Chair of Republicans Abroad, were beyond the content of the broadcast.

1. At least in British media, consideration of the events is almost exclusively on politics, and within that, on "Who won? Who lost?" with a view to the 2012 Presidential election. There is little attention to the economic significance of developments.

2. There is an unwitting illustration of the difficulties for the US in the current episode -- even as some have pointed to the partisan manoeuvring and posturing that led to a debt problem becoming a crisis, the focus of the Republican participant in this brief conversation is to ensure that all the blame resides with the Democrats and President Obama (and, conversely, that any credit and good intentions are held by the GOP).

The item begins just before the 2:34.00 mark.

US Politics Opinion: Loathing and More Loathing in Washington DC

A wise man once told me there were two things in this world you do not want to see made: sausages and a political deal.

And so it is with the news that that the legislative and executive branches of the US Government have reached agreement on lifting the US debt ceiling, a step which should have been a formality. We are being treated to congratulatory statements by America’s political leaders of common sense prevailing and of the spirit of compromise.

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US Politics Audio: Scott Lucas on the BBC about the Debt Deal

I did several interviews this afternoon about the developing deal in the US over the Federal debt. Questions ranged from "who wins politically?" (answer: Republicans win the battle but Obama probably wins the war, at least for the 2012 Presidential election), "who wins economically?" (answer: nobody --- this is a bad economic "solution" and we are likely to be back at this point in 2013), and "what does it mean for Britain?" (not as much as people might think).

BBC WM: The discussion starts just before the 1:04:00 mark.

BBC Coventry and Warwickshire: The interview begins just before the 37:00 mark.

US Politics Opinion: "A Plague on All Your Houses"

Sen. Harry Reid, Barack Obama, Sen. John BoehnerWhilst Congress remains gridlocked, which will be the case until January 2013 at the earliest, the markets will look askance at efforts to control American debt and react accordingly, hurting us all. This is what happens when economic issues are politicised. Maybe, Obama will take a leaf from Bill Clinton’s book, moving to the centre and getting popular support for legislation which Congress hears, but I doubt this will happen.

It is in Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet that I find the words to sum up my feelings: “A plague on all your houses.”

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US Opinion: Learning The Ideological and Political Lessons of "Armadebtdon 2011"

When a deal is finally reached on this occasion, who is optimistic that in a year's time, or a decade from now, politicians will have found a way to put aside partisan differences exacerbated by outside groups and face the tough fiscal choices facing the country?

Perhaps it is time for some changes in the way American government operates to meet the modern reality that compromise, on the important matters, is virtually impossible in Congress. Without them --- and it might be as simple, if controversial, as ending the filibuster --- it is impossible to see how Washington can avoid lurching from impasse to impasse.

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US Politics & Economy Analysis: It's Not the "Bizarro" Tea Party That is the Problem

There is an interesting narrative emerging from the contentious debt limit discussions in Washington: tesponsible politicians from both sides of the aisle have been blocked in their attempts to craft a successful deal by irresponsible, or in Senator John McCain's language, "bizarro" Tea Party politicians.

In the short term that is a fair assessment, possibly without the "bizarro", but in the long term it is a woeful explanation of the present inadequacies of Congress and the President in facing America's debt and deficit problems.

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US Politics & Economy: Scott Lucas on the BBC About the Debt Crisis

Complementing James Miller's summary of the battle in Washington over the Federal Government's debt, with the prospect of a US default next week, I was in a discussion on BBC Radio 2 this lunchtime about the political and economic causes of the problem and on the question, "Does this mean America is on its knees and finished as a superpower?"

(The answer to the question is easy, "That is the wrong way to look at the current situation." Explaining the causes is a lot more complex, although James Miller's "Start with the tax cuts", and the Government spending binge of the last decade is a good beginning.)

The discussion begins just before the 1:11.00 mark. My contribution is from 1:20.45.

And later in the afternoon, I had the chance on BBC West Midlands to offer an introduction to the "debt ceiling", the politics of the crisis, and the question, "Does it really matter if the US defaults next week?"

The chat starts just after the 1:41.30 mark.