2026 GMT: Rebels Launching Attack in Idlib.
There are reports from every corner of Idlib province that the rebels are in the initial stages of a major offensive against Idlib city and several other Assad strongholds that remain in the province. The offensive is being called "The Retribution for Baniyas," referencing the sectarian massacre that may have claimed hundreds of lives last week. The rebels are reportedly bringing significant amounts of firepower, from Grad rockets to tanks, artillery to mortars, into this fight. We've already seen many videos that reportedly show a significant amount of firepower on the move tonight, though we're still working to verify the locations.
This video reportedly shows a rebel tank attacking an Assad military installation in Idlib:
2008 GMT: US Ambassador inside Syria?
Analysts have been waiting for the arrival of more non-lethal assistance to Syrian rebels from the United States. NPR's Deborah Amos reports that some of that delivery may have arrived, accompanied by the US Ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford:
Syrian media activists at Bab al salama say amb robert ford crossed into syria today after US delivers 7 truck loads of MRE's to rebels.
— deborah amos (@deborahamos) May 9, 2013
1956 GMT: Rebels Attack Abu Dhuhor Airbase.
Rebel fighters continue to press their attacks against several key airbases, including the Menneg airbase and the Abu Dhuhor base. The latter, between Idlib, Aleppo, and Hama provinces (map), has been surrounded by rebel machinegun, sniper, and mortar teams for several days. The goal appears to be to shoot down aircraft that defend or resupply the base while pressing the attack and slowly wearing away at the Assad forces. Videos like the one below show rebels pressing the attack in recent days. One video even shows a rebel fighter aiming what appears to be a Croatian-made RBG-6 grenade launcher towards the base.
Both the Menneg base and the Abu Dhuhor have been attacked before, both both are closer than ever to completely falling into rebel hands.
1918 GMT: Fighting in Qaboun.
Tonight, more heavy fighting was reported in Qaboun, in northeastern Damascus. The video below, reportedly taken tonight, gives a good feel for the level of violence.
Obviously we don't know who is firing in this video, but rebel forces have been sieging a military intelligence compound in the area (map). That facility is one of the most important bases of operation for Assad's feared secret police.
There's another reason to watch this fight. Last Friday, I interviewed Phil Balboni, President and Chief Executive Officer of GlobalPost News. Mr. Balboni revealed that after an exhaustive investigation, GlobalPost believes that the American Journalist James Foley, who has been missing for more than five months, is being held by the Assad government. This statement was published by the Free James Foley organization:
“With a very high degree of confidence, we now believe that Jim was most likely abducted by a pro-regime militia group and subsequently turned over to Syrian government forces,” GlobalPost CEO and President Philip Balboni said during a speech marking World Press Freedom Day.
I asked Mr. Balboni very specific questions about where they thought that Foley was being held. HE told me that he had very specific intelligence, but that they had decided not to discuss that location. He did add, however, that they believe Jim Foley is being held in an Airforce Intelligence installation. I asked whether or not there was fighting nearby the installation. Mr. Balboni said that he wouldn't comment specifically, except to say that all Assad military installations near the capital are under attack, and he had been in contact with Rebel Commanders, including Salim Idriss.
The Airforce Intelligence wing of Assad's regime is a feared group, with many installations, so we can;t say where he is held, and we would not if we knew out of respect for those concerned. However, one of their main installations is this compound, which was reportedly under attack earlier today and may be under attack this evening as well.
1653 GMT: The Defiant Head of Hezbollah Speaks.
Naharnet has posted a transcript of a television address given by the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. It is clear from the address that Nasrallah's defiant statements about Syria giving Lebanon "game changing" weapons was more rhetorical bluster than reality. Nasrallah seems to be saying that Hezbollah is willing to receive such weapons, and Syria is willing to give them, but Israel is working to prevent this.
He also attempted to make a distinction by saying that the results of the Arab uprisings have not benefited Palestinians, whereas Assad's government has stood up for the PAlestinians and against Israel.
This appears to be a coordinated PR effort between the Assad government and Hezbollah. Just today the regime said it would respond immediately if attacked again.
The Nasrallah statement is interesting, however, because it does suggest that some of the Israeli airstrikes did indeed hit weapons systems bound for Hezbollah, a claim made by Israel's allies that has yet to be backed by any sort of publicly-available information.
1628 GMT: Russian Missiles Headed to Assad?
US Secretary of State Kerry has responded to a report that Russia may be planning on sending surface-to-air missiles to Assad.
"We had previously stated that the missiles... are potentially destabilizing with respect to the state of Israel. And so we've made it clear historically that this is a concern of the United States," Kerry said after talks with Italian Foreign Minister Emma Bonino in Rome on a whirlwind tour aimed at reviving diplomatic talks on Syria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
"I think we have made it crystal clear that we would prefer that Russia is not supplying assistance," he said at a press conference.
The S-300 is one of the most advanced air defense systems in the world. However, it is worth noting that Syria may already possess S-300 systems, and that some of the prerequisite radar stations have already been destroyed. That said, the S-300 would be a potent upgrade to the Assad defenses.
But this announcement by Russia may be more rhetoric than reality. After all, these pledges have been made before. At the same time, the UK recently announced new intentions of arming Syria's rebels, though no tangible plans have been announced and there's no evidence that the international arms shipments to rebels are currently in the works. In other words, all of this could be bluster, from both sides, as they try to drive the other side to the negotiating table.
On the other hand, the question for Russia, and the US and its allies, will be - will rhetoric turn into reality if the plans for a negotiated settlement fall apart?
1620 GMT: Hezbollah Will Support Assad.
In perhaps the toughest talk yet, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has said that the organization will stand by the Assad government against all of its threats, including Israel.
Nasrallah went even further, and suggested that Syrian weapons headed for Lebanon were "game changing."
BREAKING: Hezbollah chief: Syria will supply 'game-changing' weapons to the Lebanese militant group.
— The Associated Press (@AP) May 9, 2013
Nasrallah is saying that Hezbollah will help Syria to liberate the Golan Heights. I think he is talking long-term not, like, this week.
— Patrick Galey (@patrickgaley) May 9, 2013
#Nasrallah: Experience shows that Syrian leadership has great wisdom and it is dealing with Israel wisely #livetweet
— Al-Akhbar English (@AlakhbarEnglish) May 9, 2013
We'll have analysis once we see the full quote.
1500 GMT: Fighting in Damascus.
The eastern districts of Damascus have been rocket by explosions and fighting today. Irbin, Qaboun, Harasta, and Jobar are all being hammered by artillery shelling today. Peering inside the reports, we see that Jobar, on the rebel front lines, has been heavily shelled. This video was posted by the LCC a few minutes ago and was reportedly taken in Jobar.
Another interesting report - according to the LCC, there is more heavy fighting around the Air Force Intelligence building in Qaboun. The rebels have attacked that building from time to time, so it's something that needs to be watched carefully for new developments.
1415 GMT: Ricin Used?
A note on our update at 1308 that a Turkish news outlet is saying that that ricin was detected. Al Jazeera English's Anita McNaught also cautions that the report should not be taken at face value, as she is highly skeptical of the report as well. She is also seeking more information from government sources, but adds that this new claim is only coming from one source.
@jmiller_ea We are following it up here in Istanbul #Turkey (where I am today).. but no-one can tell us more at present.
— Anita McNaught (@anitamcnaught) May 9, 2013
1358 GMT: Assad to Give Hezbollah "Everything."
Syria's President has reportedly vowed to support Hezbollah and follow its model of resistance against Israel after Sunday's airstrikes rocked Damascus:
"We have decided to give [Hezbollah] everything," the newspaper quoted him as saying, without elaborating.
"For the first time we feel that we and they are living in the same situation and they are not just an ally we help with resistance," he said.
"We have decided that we must move forward towards them and turn into a nation of resistance like Hezbollah, for the sake of Syria and future generations."
1320 GMT: State of the Fighting in Daraa Province.
Daraa province can be thought of as having two distinct regions, the region near Daraa city that stretches to the north and east, and the Hauron region that borders the Golan Heights and eventually leads north to Damascus. In the last four months the Syrian rebels have made significant advances on both fronts. However, in the last week or so, the regime has launched a massive counterattack to take the first region, near Daraa city. That attack has focused on the town of Kherbat Ghazalah, situated on an important crossroads northeast of Daraa city.
View Syria - 2013 May 9 - EA Worldview in a larger map
The Syrian regime was close to recapturing the town yesterday, but rebels managed to push back into the town. It's unclear whether the rebels will be able to push back the Assad assault, though the rebel lines are not in collapse either.
What's remarkable is that the rebel offensives that were so fast and so one-sided for the last several months have stalled or lost ground in this area of Daraa. A major reason for that is a lack of ammunition. Many of the Croatian RPGs, like the RPG 22, which were supplied by Saudi Arabia via Jordan, are one-shot weapons. All of the Croatian weapons require a continuous supply of ammunition. For various reasons, those efforts have been nearly halted. One theory is that the only reason rebels were given arms was to fuel the rebel advance and drive Assad to the negotiating table. If the rebels are too strong, then they may not be willing to negotiate, thus creating a careful balancing act by the outside nations providing arms to Syrian rebels.
On the other hand, in Hauron, the rebel advance has not stopped. Regime border posts have had few reinforcements, and many Assad bases in this region have been largely evacuated as Assad has pulled troops and supplies closer to the major cities of Daraa and Damascus. One theory is that Assad is more worried about holding his capital than securing the border which he can deal with later. As these border areas provide no economic benefit, there is little reason for Assad to fight for them.
But one should not dismiss rebel advances in this area too quickly. The Syrian rebels have captured several small installations over the last several weeks, and show no sign of slowing. Some of these bases appear to have been very well stocked with arms and equipment when they were captured, which means that Assad may have had the resources to pull most of his fighting forces out of the Hauron, but he may have left a lot of equipment behind.
Several days ago, a Twitter account, Johnny Six, sent us this video reportedly showing the rebels capturing an artillery base in this region. A keen-eyed arms watcher, Oliver Holmes, inquired about the rockets seen at 5:15. They appear to be Chinese-made 120mm W86 Rocket-Assisted mortars, shipped by someone to Lattakia. If there's enough ammunition, these mortars could make a significant impact as the rebels pound rebel bases and entrenched positions in Daraa and Damascus:
1308 GMT: Turkey Says Ricin Used.
A Turkish news outlet is claiming that ricin was present in samples taken from the alleged Saraqib chemical weapons attack (hat-tip to Brown Moses).
That's an interesting theory. The United states did investigate using ricin in cluster bombs - before World War II. Russia also used (and may still use) ricin, but as an assassination tool. However, this theory doesn't seem to be an adequate solution for the Saraqib mystery at all, especially since ricin typically takes 3-5 days in order to kill its victims. Victims in Saraqib, on the other hand, reported symptoms immediately after exposure.
James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting us started this morning.
0835 GMT: American Position
Secretary of State John Kerry has said today, before talks with Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh, has said all sides are working to "effect a transition government by mutual consent of both sides, which clearly means that in our judgement President Assad will not be a component of that transitional government".
0535 GMT: US-Russian Manoeuvres
Washington has followed Tuesday's discussions with Russia with a bit of pressure, put out through The Wall Street Journal and reported by The New York Times, on Moscow:
The United States, which is trying to bring Syrian rebels and the Syrian government to the negotiating table, is now increasingly worried that Russia plans to sell a sophisticated air defense system to Syria, American officials said Wednesday....
“There are concerns that this might happen,” said a senior United States official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, referring to the possible delivery of the S-300. A Western intelligence service has also warned that the Russians may soon send S-300 air defense batteries to Syria, said another American official who asked not to be identified because he was discussing intelligence reports.
0505 GMT: Casualties
The Local Coordination Committees claim 112 people were killed on Wednesday, including 42 in Homs Province and 34 in Damascus and its suburbs.
The Violations Documentation Center puts the confirmed death toll at 59,865 since the conflict begin in March 2011, an increase of 85 from Thursday.
Of those killed, 46,934 were civilians, a rise of 49 from yesterday.
0445 GMT: The US-Russian Initiative
The news on Syria on Wednesday was that there was relatively little political news, a day after the US and Russia declared an initiative for discussions between the opposition and the Assad regime.
There was a flutter that the Islamist insurgent faction Jabhat al-Nusra may be in possession of chemical weapons, and chatter about Turkey's declaration of "ethnic cleansing" by regime forces. On the US-Russian move, there was almost no comment, let alone development.
Washington turned its focus instead to a statement by Secretary of State John Kerry promising an attempt at peace talks on another front --- Israel and Palestine.
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Moscow and Beijing are determined to continue coordinated efforts for a settlement. Syrian media gave this headline priority, although it then reported that the Russian Foreign Ministry had briefed the Syrian Ambassador on the over the Moscow-Washington discussions.