See also Syria Document: The Map of Sexualised Violence (Women Under Siege)
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Annan Calls for "One Authority, One Gun"
Syria Special: 16 Months Later, A History of the Insurgency --- And What It Foreshadows for the Regime
Syria Opinion: Annan Endorses Assad as the "One Authority, One Gun"
Bahrain Opinion: This is "Reform" --- The Imprisonment of Nabeel Rajab
2155 GMT: Syria. We must stress that the news from Tremseh (map) is still unconfirmed, but the competing narratives have already emerged. First, the Syrian government's narrative:
#BREAKING: Syrian TV quoted source saying "bloody media channels & terrorists gangs" perpetrated Tremseh massacre twitter.com/zaidbenjamin/s…
— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) July 12, 2012
Next, a narrative posted by an activist:
The town of al-Treimseh, which located on al-Sqeilabiya Road and is about 35 kilometers away from Hama, was subjected to violent shelling by the Assad army since the early hours of the morning. A convoy composed of 25 cars filled with army personnel and security forces, 3 BMPs, 5 Zell cars with Shelka, and a number of shabiha thugs from surrounding villages headed toward the town. They surrounded the village from all sides and prevented residents from leaving. The shelling lasted for about 5 continuous hours. Tens were killed as a result of the violent arbitrary shelling. Afterwards, shabiha thugs from surrounding pro-regime villages (al-Safsafah – Tal Sikeen – Aseela – Hanjoor) stormed the village and committed another horrific massacre. Those who survived the shelling were slaughtered.
Until this moment, there are more than 150 martyrs in the Great Mosque of al-Treimseh, and 70 martyrs on the agricultural fields, Assi River, and in homes. There are more than 140 injured, including more than 40 who are in critical condition. The number is likely to increase. More than 100 people have been detained.
The city of Hama is now boiling and in a state of rage. Demonstrations in solidarity with al-Treimseh emerged in a number of neighborhoods, including Shaikh Anbar, Bab Qebli, and Tareeq Halab, as well as the town of Kafarzeita.
The beginning of the narrative closely fits out earlier reporting, that a large military campaign was active in the area of Tremseh, and that the town and surrounding towns were being heavily shelled. The second part, that the shelling intensified and shabiha entered the village, we cannot confirm.
2120 GMT: Syria. An EA correspondent in Hama who has reports to have contacts in Tremseh now says that 220 bodies have been found, 150 have been gathered in the mosque and 70 are outside it.
We still have no pictures or videos from the cite, but it is fairly remote. If the Qubair massacre is any indication, we will not have reliable visual confirmation for many hours.
2110 GMT: Syria. Our interactive map from today's events shows that Tremseh, the bottom blue flag on this map, is near where a series of intense artillery strikes took place earlier today:
View Syria - 2012 July 12 - EA Worldview in a larger map
Also, there were reports that the village was shelled earlier today, and two videos (1 and 2) show that there were some wounded earlier.
We're still piecing together what happened, but the story as we know it is that there was a large wave of intense shelling that killed many people. There are also rumors that shabiha, pro-regime thugs, entered the village after the shelling, but these rumors are absolutely unconfirmed at this point.
2050 GMT: Syria. The numbers of dead reported in Tremseh (see previous entry) is running away. Al Arabaya now reports that more than 220 have been killed. The LCC, for its part, says it has confirmed 122. A source in Hama assures us that 150 have been killed:
150 dead have been collected in the mosque of Traimseh village in #Hama, more bodies have been discovered and many people are missing #Syria
— Sami al-Hamwi (@HamaEcho) July 12, 2012
Our sources do not know where Al Arabiya got the 220 number. We will continue to monitor the situation, and will try to collect as much evidence as we can.
2035 GMT: Syria. The LCCS, a network of activists working to verify and distribute news from Syria, just minute ago published a report that today's death toll has reached 84. That number included 20 killed in a single town in Hama province, Al Tremseh, also spelled Tareemseh (map).
However, for hours reports of a "massacre" in Al Tremseh have been pouring in, and unconfirmed reports have suggested that the scale of the even there may have been on par with the massacre in Qubair. The LCCS now reports that the number killed has topped 100, meaning that the death toll today will likely top 160 nationwide.
Other activists, including a reliable contact in Hama, also report that the number of dead in Tremseh may be more than 100:
Yet another massacre has happened in the #Hama countryside. More than 100 dead in Traimseh village, 10 KM from destroyed Qubair. #Syria
— Sami al-Hamwi (@HamaEcho) July 12, 2012
With numbers this high, we have to call this report unconfirmed. However, the past reliability of these sources is an indication that these reports may be valid.
2028 GMT: Syria. While the death toll continues to mount in Damascus, and elsewhere, we expect tomorrow's protests to be particularly poignant. With mounting violence, protesting is an extremely dangerous activity, yet every Friday has large protests, and every Friday's protests have a common theme:
Friday's day of protest is called "Down with Annan, the servant of Assad and Iran" #Syria
— Sami al-Hamwi (@HamaEcho) July 12, 2012
1952 GMT: Syria. Late breaking news - according to multiple sources, a huge series of mortar attacks and explosions have rocked a central district in Damascus, Barzeh (map), and a suburb, Irbeen (map), just to the east. Large amounts of casualties are reported.
The LCC says dozens are wounded in Barzeh, and Arab media are reporting that many have been killed:
Many feared killed in shelling of protest in #Barzeh, #Damascus. Al Arabiya reporting 8 killed so far and many wounded.#Syria
— NMSyria (@NMSyria) July 12, 2012
EA sources in the capital said that the explosions were massive. Mortar and anti-aircraft guns have also rocked the suburbs of Irbeen, according to the LCCS.
The CFDPC, a network of activists with connections in Damascus, have a nearly overwhelming series of reports. According to the reports, 4 people are dead in Hajar al Aswad (map), 3 more in Yalda (map), and at least 2 people were killed, including this child, in Sayyedeh Zeinab (map, also see update 1635 and update 1432).
With the onset of darkness, and the continuing violence, the full scale of the damage in these areas will likely take some time to evaluate and confirm.
The CFDPC also posts two impressive scenes of today's protests in the capital. The first, a crowd in Midan (map) chanting, "We want your execution, Bashar." (map)
The second video does not look like a protest - it looks like a traffic jam. However, according to the CFDPC, and the videographer, protesters blocked traffic in Nahre Eshe (map) to protest this morning's shelling of Kafer Souseh. It may not look that important, but what is the economic impact of such a small act of defiance?
1852 GMT: Syria. Multiple EA sources also report that Al Harak, in Daraa province (map) was heavily shelled today. Some of the videos bear that out:
However, the LCCS also makes an extraordinary claim - instead of hiding, people of Harak launched a protest in response to the shelling:
1841 GMT: Syria. Multiple activists are reporting that in a single town in Hama province, Al Tareemseh (map), many civilians were killed today. Though the exact number is not yet confirmed, here is one of the more detailed reports:
21 martyrs in #Hama today, 18 of them from the massacre in #Treimsah, whose situation is still dire. #Syria
— Sumayya Saleh (@Sumayya92) July 12, 2012
Of the 18 martyrs in #Treimsah, 4 are children, 2 are defected soldiers, and one is a doctor. #Hama
— Sumayya Saleh (@Sumayya92) July 12, 2012
Looking at the map again, this town is just south of Kornaz and Jalama, two towns that were heavily shelled earlier (see update 1459).
1830 GMT: Bahrain. Amnesty International has moved quickly to preempt whatever may occur during tomorrow's protests. The unusual speed of this action will help raise awareness, and potentially may apply international pressure to the regime to curb a crackdown.
However, the United States government seems to be sending the opposite message. US Charge d'Affaires Stephanie Williams has praised the Bahraini government for its reform efforts, and though she also condemned violence from both sides, the only specifics she mentioned were the alleged discovery of a bomb-making facility. Williams closed out her statements with what many activists are already considering an extremely condescending call for dialogue:
Finally, Ms.Williams hoped that Bahrainis from across the political spectrum would seize the opportunity presented by the holy month of Ramadan to come together and build bridges across communities. She believed that Bahrain had and could continue to serve as a model for a multi-ethnic, multi-religious, moderate and tolerant society where the rights and dignity of all are respected.
1819 GMT: Bahrain. Amnesty International has condemned the banning of a series of planned opposition protests, and has cited them as more examples of the government's broken promises that it was willing to reform:
"Instead of continuing to arbitrarily deny the right to peaceful assembly on the grounds that traffic might be disturbed, the authorities must offer alternatives to allow political societies and the general population to peacefully exercise their rights to freedom of expression, association and assembly," said Hassiba Hadj Sahraoui (Amnesty International’s Middle East and North Africa Deputy Programme Director).
"The fact that a peaceful protest has not been granted an official permit does not justify arbitrary arrest or the unnecessary use of disproportionate force by police against protesters. The Bahraini authorities should act immediately to ensure that this does not happen and that the law on gathering is brought in line with international law," said Hassiba Hadj Sahraoui.
1805 GMT: Bahrain. Authorities have banned tomorrow's protest rally, originally called for by several opposition parties (see update 0430). However, according to a strategist for the Bahrain Justice & Development Movement, the opposition parties are marching anyway, a direct challenge to the Bahraini government's authority, and one that will likely be met with force:
#Bahrain opposition societies announce 10 rallies in 10 different areas for tomorrow. Will take the full force of the security to suppress.
— Dominic Kavakeb (@DominicKavakeb) July 12, 2012
Tomorrow in #Bahrain dubbed "Friday of determination and challenge" with 10 rallies in 10 areas
— Dominic Kavakeb (@DominicKavakeb) July 12, 2012
Meanwhile, the nightly cycle of protests and teargas continues. This picture was reportedly taken tonight in Sitra:
;)
1635 GMT: Syria. Earlier we carried reports of heavy fighting in Sayyedeh Zeinab, in southern Damascus (map, also see update 1432). Now, the LCC has a report that south of that fighting many civilians have been shot by Syrian security forces:
Security forces open fire and as a result there are a lot of wounded people, among them children and women. The regime army is preventing residents and doctors from aiding the wounded.
1623 GMT: Syria. Western countries in the United Nations have drafted a resolution that would give the Assad regime 10 days to end the violence, and would ratchet up sanctions should the regime fail to comply:
If Security Council members, including a reluctant Russia, approve it, the resolution would allow for non-military sanctions under Chapter VII of the UN charter if Syrian government forces keep up their offensive on cities.
The resolution condemns "the Syrian authorities' increasing use of heavy weapons, including indiscriminate shelling from tanks and helicopters".
Negotiations on the Western draft and a rival Russian resolution, which does not mention sanctions, are to start on Thursday in New York. A vote must be held before July 20, when the mandate of the UN observer mission in Syria ends.
However, Russia has already declared any invocation of Chapter 7 "unacceptable," and has said it will veto any motion with sanctions attached.
So the motion is dead in the water. Any vote will be procedural, as it appears that any resolution with teeth will not escape Russia's veto. With the vote scheduled for week from now, today's news is basically a guarantee that the UN will spin its wheels for at least another 7 days.
1545 GMT: Syria. The Women's Media Center project Women Under Siege has released a new map of the violence against women in Syria. Josh Shahryar reports in our separate entry.
See also Syria Document: The Map of Sexualised Violence (Women Under Siege)
1532 GMT: Syria. Beyond the shelling in Damascus, and the fires in Hama, parts of Homs have been hammered today by more intense shelling. The images from Jouret al Shayah, in the center of the city, are particularly striking (map):
1515 GMT: Bahrain. This report from renowned activist Zainab alKhawaja:
Nabeel is being held in condition similar to solitary confinement, in a very small cell not allowed to communicate #Free_Defender
— angry arabiya (@angryarabiya) July 12, 2012
1459 GMT: Syria. Several towns in Hama province have been viciously attacked today. Activists report that Kornaz, between Hama and Idlib province (map), has been heavily shelled, and large parts of the town are on fire. These videos tell only a small part of the tale:
Jalama, just to the south (map), has also been shelled, and more homes burn there as well:
1432 GMT: Syria. More mortar fire and fighting in Damascus - now the Local Coordinating Committees report heavy fighting near a military barracks in Sayyedeh Zeinab (we believe here on the map).
Again, this report suggests that the Free Syrian Army is on the offensive, either as a response to an ongoing series of arrest campaigns that have been taking place in the capital for days, or as a preemptive attack on Assad's defenses.
1410 GMT: Syria. The Institute for the Study of War, a US based think tank, has posted an 8 page assessment of the current situation in Syria. Echoing my assessment published yesterday, it too concludes that large portions of the country are now under insurgent control, and that while Assad maintains control over the capital, his authority is being threatened.
The report also goes into details on the organization of the Syrian opposition's key players, from the Local Coordinating Committees to the Syrian Revolutionary General Council and beyond. It attempts to diagram, in simple terms, the roles and ideological standings of each organization.
The report was made known to us by @machkhatib, who found it on The Guardian.
1148 GMT: Syria. All eyes are on the capital - The CFDPC, an organization with many contacts inside Damascus, has posted a few key videos that help explain the situation leading up to this moment. The first, a pre-dawn protest in Kafer Souseh, in front of the al Habashi mosque (map):
The CFDPC also posts videos of overnight fighting between the military and the Free Syrian Army in Qaddam (map).
This video reportedly shows the effects of shells falling between Kafer souseh and Darraya (map):
Then there is a very curious video, reportedly shows smoke rising near the military airport in Mezzeh (map). This video suggests that some sort of attack, or counter attack, has been launched on the Syrian military stationed in the capital.
1118 GMT: Syria. In yesterday's analysis, a history of the Free Syrian Army from the start of the uprising up to Tuesday, I wrote that 7 of the top 10 Syrian cities have been shelled.
Today, Bashar al Assad has made that number 8. According to activists and residents of Damascus who spoke with Reuters, the Kafer Souseh district of Damascus, one of the key areas on the very doorstep of the regime, has been heavily shelled today:
"I woke up this morning and saw helicopters flying over the area. Then I started hearing the mortars. There were about six or seven of them in the past half hour. And now I just heard another one hit. We can see fire and smoke coming from one of the fields nearby," said anti-government activist Hazem al-Aqad.
"People are terrified, families are getting in their cars and rushing as fast as they can to other areas. About 200 people in my area have left so far," he told Reuters on Skype.
A Damascus activist named Lina said the shelling had begun at 9:45 a.m. "This is the first time they have shelled Kfar Souseh, (though) they tried to break into it before," she said.
A third activist source said: "The FSA (rebel Free Syrian Army) are going in and out of the Basateen area in Kfar Souseh. The army has suffered some heavy losses.
James Miller takes over today's live coverage. A big shout out to Scott Lucas for getting us started so very early this morning.
0430 GMT: Bahrain. Authorities have again banned a march led by the opposition society Al Wefaq, blocking a rally in Jablat Hibshi on Thursday because "traffic would have been hindered and the public would have been exposed to risks": "The Chief of Public Security clarified that it was illegal to take part in the rally and legal action would be taken against violators."
0410 GMT: Syria. Speaking on Al Jazeera, Syria's ambassador to Iraq, Nawaf al-Fares, has announced his resignation as well as his defection from ruling Baath party because of the "horrible massacre committed against the Syrian people".
Al-Fares called on members of the military to join the insurgency and said, "I urge all honest members of this party to follow my path because the regime has turned it [the party] to an instrument to kill people and their aspiration to freedom."
An evening protest in the Salaheddin section of Aleppo: