EA WorldView

A march in Bilad Alqadeem in Bahrain today, expressing solidarity with political leaders in prison

A protester amidst the tear gas in Salmabad in Bahrain on Saturday

2005 GMT: CNN posts a video profile of prominent Syrian cartoonist Ali Ferzat --- abducted and badly beaten by gunmen in Damascus last August, he left the country but now hopes to return:

1845 GMT: Freelance journalist Zak Brophy posts this provocative report about arms supplies to Syrian insurgents:

#Syria businessman over from Saudi Arabia tells me he has paid $800,000 for FSA to buy arms over past 8 months. KSA gov "provides cover".
— zak brophy (@zakbrophy) April 1, 2012

1815 GMT: Footage of the statement of Brigadier General Mohammed Baitar as he defects and joins the Free Syrian Army:

1805 GMT: The Local Co-ordination Committees of Syria claim 70 people have died today, including 21 martyrs in Homs Province, 16 in Hama Province, and 14 in Idlib Province.

1750 GMT: Jordanian authorities have charged 12 activists, arrested at a demonstration Saturday, with defaming King Abdullah II.

The 12 were also charged with incitement against the political system, illegal assembly, and rioting. They were arrested during a protest near the Prime Minister's office which demanded the release of two dozen other activists charged last month with inciting riots in southern Jordan.

Amnesty International has issued a public statement urging Jordan to free six of those political activists arrested in Tafileh in mid-March, "believ[ing] them to be prisoners of conscience held solely for exercising their right to freedom of expression and that they are being punished for their pro-reform views and peaceful activities".

If convicted, both those seized in Tafileh and those detained yesterday face three years in prison each.

1455 GMT: Turkish Airlines has cancelled its flights to Syria because of escalating violence, issuing a statement, “Due to an acceleration in the extraordinary situation, all our scheduled flights between April 1 and 30 have been cancelled.”

The airlines flies to Damascus daily and Aleppo five times a week.

1448 GMT: Footage of tanks on the streets of Zabadani in Syria on Saturday:

1445 GMT: Police fire tear gas at protesters and a cameraman in Abu Saiba in Bahrain on Saturday night:

1325 GMT: The Local Co-ordination Committees of Syria has said that 30 people have died across the country today, with eight deaths in Daraa Province and seven in Hama Province.

1305 GMT: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has expressed concern over the closure by the United Arab Emirates of the US-funded National Democratic Institute.

Clinton said she discussed the issue with UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahayan: "We are as you know, as anyone who has visited the United States, strong believers in a vibrant civil society... I expect our discussions on this issue to continue."

On Wednesday, UAE authorities visited the NDI offices and said its licence as cancelled, effective immediately.

1245 GMT: Disparate reactions from statesmen at and around the Friends of Syria conference....

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé said a deadline must be set for the Syrian regime to implement the peace plan of United Nations envoy Kofi Annan, "There is a risk of course of dragging out, and we can see the tactics of the regime that is to buy time. This is why we must, and we did all agree, to set a time limit for this plan."

British Foreign Secretary William Hague echoed, "Our task is to pressure the regime in Damascus into implementing Kofi Annan’s Six-Point Plan in full and without any further delay."

However, in Baghdad, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki insisted at a news conference, "It has been one year and the regime did not fall, and it will not fall, and why should it fall? We reject any arming (of Syrian rebels) and the process to overthrow the regime, because this will leave a greater crisis in the region."

1242 GMT: A mass demonstration in Kernaz in Hama Province in Syria today:

1116 GMT: The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has claimed that clashes in the town of Quriyeh, in Deir Ezzor Province, killed at least 10 people on Sunday, including five insurgents and four regime soldiers.

1115 GMT: In Bahrain, the head of the opposition society Al Wefaq, Sheikh Ali Salman, addressed party members on Sunday. He spoke at length about the reform and development of Al Wefaqas well as the challenge to the Bahraini system:

Al-Wefaq firmly contends that the way to resolve the political crisis in the country passes through empowerment of the people of their legitimate rights, particularly their inherent right to elect their prime minister, government and ministers either directly or indirectly under a fair and transparent electoral system meeting the universal practice of one person one vote. Also, the society believes in a serious dialogue involving all stakeholders, placing it under a clear and specific timetable approved by the people through a constituent assembly or referendum of nationals excluding naturalized Bahrainis earning their citizenship outside the law.

1045 GMT: Syrian State TV covered the gathering in Istanbul this morning, but it added the distinctive label "Enemies of Syrian People Conference".

The Al-Baath newspaper of Syria's ruling Baath Party pronounced, "Only the naive and those who want to see through the eyes of the Americans believe that this is a conference for the friends of the Syrian people. The call by [Saud Prince] Saud al-Faisal to arm the terrorists, encourage the bloodbath and destroy infrastructure makes the conference a platform for the enemies of Syria, who are discussing everything but the interests of the Syrians."

1025 GMT: Back from a weekend break to catch up with an EA correspondent's report of the Friends of Syria meeting in Turkey....

The opening statements were marked by the declarations of Burhan Ghalioun, the head of the opposition Syrian National Council. He turned the Assad regime's rhetoric back on it, "The democracy for which people are fighting is the enemy of terrorism. If the regime continues in power it is true terrorism."

Ghalioun asserted, "The Syrian people will never forget who stood by their sides and who stood against them." He said, "We need urgent humanitarian support, safe corridors, and support for the Free Syrian Army."

The most significant passage of Ghalioun's statement, however, might reflect more on the manoeuvres within the opposition than the challenge to the Assad regime --- he asked for the Syrian National Council to be recognised as the sole representative of the Syrian people.

Before Ghalioun spoke, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opened the session with a forceful statement which declared best wishes for the "peace plan" of United Nations envoy Kofi Annan but added that he could accept any resolution leaving President Assad in power.

And Erdoğan appeared to urge action, even without the support of countries such as Russia, China, and Iran, indicating that the self-defence of Syrian groups would become more important with the failure of an international consensus". He challenged any attempt, as implied by the Russians, to make Assad's action contingent on concessions by the oppostion: "The murderer and victim cannot be accepted in the same context....Those struggling for freedom are never alone."

The Qatari Prime Minister, Hamad Bin Jassim al Thani, also pointed to intervention, "We should examine deploying Arab joint forces in Syria to maintain peace....There is no logic to letting things continue while the Syrian regime defies the proposals for peace."

Thus, an EA correspondent notes, a clear distinction emerged between the Arab League's position of pushing for the success of the Annan Plan while the Turks, Saudis, and Qataris set out the need to prepare for action after its likely failure.

And the US? Secretary of State Hillary Clinton maintained the rhetorical denunciation of the Assad regime --- it is adding to its "list of broken promises" --- while maintaining caution over the level of international support and intervention for the opposition.

Clinton declared, "Our message must be clear to those who give the orders and those who carry them out: Stop killing your fellow citizens or you will face serious consequences." In a limited indication of measures to support the opposition, she said the US was providing communications equipment.

0545 GMT: Coverage of the Syrian crisis turns today to Istanbul, Turkey, where representatives from 70 countries will convene as the "Friends of Syria" to discuss further pressure on the Assad regime.

In the prelude to the discussions, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton used talks in Riyadh and an appearance with representatives of Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Co-operation Council states to put out standard warnings --- "the Syrian Government is staying true to form, unfortunately, making a deal and then refusing to implement it" --- and prospects of action:

In Istanbul, the international community will be discussing additional measures to increase pressure on the regime, provide humanitarian assistance, despite the obstacles by the regime, and look for ways to advance an inclusive, democratic, orderly transition that addresses the aspirations of the Syrian people and preserves the integrity and institutions of the Syrian state.

None of this, however, touches the vital questions put by EA's James Miller on Thursday: 1) is there an international coalition that has a unified plan to intervene, and does that coalition have legal grounds to do so?; 2) is the opposition united enough to merit the removal of the Assad regime?

We will look for signals that this week's agreement by all but one opposition faction to work with the Syrian National Council, the most prominent group challenging President Assad, has substance. Meanwhile, there is the immediate issue of whether outside states will agree on what "pressure on the regime" means.

Put bluntly, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and possibly other Arab countries do not believe that promises of "non-lethal aid", with humanitarian assistance, are enough to offer protection to the opposition. There is thequestion of whether a no-kill area will be pursued --- Turkey had been moving toward a buffer zone, but has been reticent in recent days --- and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal let it be known, in effect slapping Clinton down as she stood beside him, that arms have to be supplied to the insurgency:

The killing goes on. So do we let the killing go on, or do we help them at least to get – to defend themselves?

Clinton's response was telling, both in its offer of "proper" measures and in its evasion of the Saudi demand:

Our focus [in Istanbul] will be on four points First, to intensify the pressure we bring through sanctions. Several of the Gulf countries have been quite advanced in imposing sanctions. We want to see broader international enforced sanctions. Second, getting the humanitarian assistance to those in need. Third, we have to continue working to strengthen the opposition’s unity and democratic vision so that it can represent an alternative to the Assad regime and participate fully in a transition process. They, frankly, have a lot of trouble communicating with one another and communicating from outside Syria into Syria. So we’re all working very hard to assist them. And fourth, we want to discuss how to help the Syrian people prepare to hold those responsible who have been committing these terrible acts of violence.

How we help the Syrian opposition is something we are focused on. We are moving to consider all of our options, and we are talking seriously about providing non-lethal support.