Nasrin Sotoudeh2045 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Earlier today we noted an interview of leading principlist MP Ahmad Tavakoli in which he said, "[Opposition figure Mir Hossein] Mousavi could mobilise the social base against [Ayatollah] Khamenei, Ahmadinejad couldn't even if he wanted to."
That was only a fragment --- and, indeed, a misleading fragment --- of an important statement which points to the dilemma for Ahmadinejad's critics: do they push the President from power or do they accept that he will complete the last two years of his term? And what happens in 2013?
Tavakoli's interview because with the current conflict, as he notes Ahmadinejad's recent move on the Ministry of Intelligence and attempt to merge Ministers without informing legislators: "The Parliament's patience with the president is coming to an end."
Yet, when pressed what Parliament might do --- the interviewer suggests that Tavakoli's criticism can be qualified because "he is said to oppose everything" --- the MP offers a telling admission: he voted for Ahmadinejad's re-election in June 2009 not because he liked the President but "out of expediency" to shut off the reformist threat.
Tavakoli continues that Mousavi, if he won the Presidency, could challenge Supreme Leader with a well-established social base. So the vote for Ahmadinejad was loyalty to Ayatollah Khamenei as a necessary pillar of the Revolution.
An EA conservative jumps in with an interpretation, "So Tavakoli points to the long-term problem that no conservative can attract the millions of votes that Ahmadinejad has in 2005 and 2009. There is no clear alternative to the President."
My own addition --- that is certainly true if the Ahmadinejad of 2011 is seen in the same light as the Ahmadinejad of 2009. But what if the President, with his recent actions, has now become the threat to the Supreme Leader that Tavakoli feared at the last election?
1715 GMT: The House Arrests. Mehdi Karoubi's advisor Mojtaba Vahedi has said that Fatemeh Karoubi has been temporarily released while the couple are transferred to another location for their strict house arrest.
Mehdi Karroubi had repeatedly requested a move so residents of the apartment complex where he lives could move back into their homes.
1710 GMT: At the Movies. The latest film of director Jafar Panahi, who faces a six-year prison sentence, premiered at the Cannes Film Festival on Thursday after it was smuggled out of Iran.
"In Film Nist" ("Not a Film"), being screened outside competition, depicts a day in Panahi's life as he waits to hear the verdict of the appeal of his prison sentence and a 20-year ban on film-making.
Panahi was convicted in December of "propaganda against the system" for making a film about unrest after the disputed 2009 Presidential election.
1605 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Leading MP and Government critic Ahmad Tavakoli has jabbed at the President, "[Opposition figure Mir Hossein] Mousavi could mobilise the social base against [Ayatollah] Khamenei, Ahmadinejad couldn't even if he wanted to."
1210 GMT: Syria Watch. In a summary of reactions to President Obama's speech on Thursday, note this reaction --- which is at striking odds with the official Iranian line on Syria --- from academic Sadegh Zibakalam:
Emotionally, President Obama’s rhetoric and eloquence appealed to the ears of his audience across the world. But Obama fell short of my expectations when he referred to Syrian and Bahrain authorities.I expected him to be more serious and harsher in his criticisms of President Bashar Assad [of Syria] and Al Khalifah in Bahrain. Both these countries are run despotically and heavy handedly. Bahrain...is the U.S.A.’s ally, and Syria is not an ally of the U.S.
Both governments are fiercely and brutally suppressing their own people. I expected President Obama to...clearly put pressure on both governments to cave in to the demands of their own people...
The U.S. in particular and the West in general are treating the regional countries with double standards, as the violation of human rights in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are ignored or neglected while the human rights breaches in Iran are highlighted.
Anyway, President Obama has got a historic, golden and unprecedented opportunity to seize his place in history … if he addresses the democracy in all countries in the region” equally.
1130 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Attorneys Fatemeh Tamimi and Mostafa Daneshjou have been arrested.
1110 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch (Crisis Edition). Back from an academic break to find the news that the Guardian Council has ruled President Ahmadinejad cannot act as caretaker Minister of Oil. We have a special analysis.
The news comes amidst escalating media chatter of the tension over Ahmadinejad's controversial Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. Even Hafte Sobh, the website linked to Rahim-Mashai, is talking of http://www.aftabnews.ir/vdcbazb8arhb50p.uiur.html">threats to arrest the advisor.
0650 GMT: Threat of the Day. Alaeedin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Commission, has declared that Iran is preparing to file a lawsuit against US officials responsible for human rights violations.
Boroujerdi offered his revelation while claiming, "The mounting wave of Islamic Awakening surging throughout the region is a reality that has changed global equation in favor of the Muslim world."
0645 GMT: While we await Friday's developments, we offer two contrasting features.
President Ahmadinejad reveals the latest Western plot against Iran --- a machine to cause droughts --- while attorney Nasrin Sotoudeh, imprisoned for 11 years, writes her 3 year-old son Nima, "A
lthough I am not the first person to have received such an unjust sentence, and I know that it is highly unlikely and wishful thinking on my part, I nevertheless hope that I will be the last."