The Latest from Iran (13 November): Sanctions, Talks, and a Twist on Iraq
Saturday, November 13, 2010 at 7:32
Scott Lucas in Abbas Kazemi, Ahmad Tavakoli, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Bijan Nobaveh, Central Bank of Iran, EA Iran, Iraq, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East and Iran, Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf, Mohammad Hosseini, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, Raymond Cone, Yahya Rahim-Safavi

1838 GMT: Economic Revelation of Day. Minister of Welfare and Social Security Sadegh Mahsouli has explained that Iran cannot define a poverty line due to huge differences between rural and urban areas, although the Government "does everything to distribute national wealth".

Fun Fact: Sadegh Mahsouli is a millionaire.

1835 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. Arsalan Fathipour, the head of Parliament's Economy Commission, has said that the Majlis has no information on the government's "support packages" to ease the economic pain of the cuts.

1830 GMT: Soft War is Everywhere! It's in the pulpits: Kalemeh claims an official order has been sent to Friday Prayer leaders for the holy month of Muharram (December/January), telling them to explain the 2009 "fitna" (sedition) and informing people about the soft war.

And it's on the easels: Minister of Culture Mohammad Hosseini has declared that artists are "front commanders" in the soft war.

1820 GMT: This Week's Top Government Cheerleader. It's MP Bijan Nobaveh, whom we last encountered applauding President Ahmadinejad's call for an enquiry into who really caused 9-11.

Nobaveh has told Iranian Students News Agency that "large sections of seditionists were illiterate". Even though they are illiterate, the MP goes on to say that "if we had made a better filtering system [of the Internet] before, we would be in a better position today".

Nobaveh suggested that the easiest form of attack is to hack wesites, but "distorting the enemies' news to our benefit is more rewarding". He suggested that "as the US attacks the Internet, it is vulnerable in the same way".

1805 GMT: The Battle Within. Another manoevure by Mohammad Nabi Habibi, the Secretary General of the conservative Motalefeh Party, who has said, "We don't support the government in all circumstances." Nabi Habibi added that "reformists who accept nezam (the Iranian system) are necessary", although he would exclude those who were involved in the "seditions" of 1999 and 2009.

Although MPs have approved the government's plans for large companies, especially in banking and insurance, key legislator Ahmad Tavakoli has warned of "uncontrollable" trusts and cartels.

1749 GMT: Honouring the Professor. Tehran University students have given a warm welcome to Abbas Kazemi, who was dismissed in January as Professor of Communications after he participated in the funeral procession of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. Daneshjoo News reports that faculty were also at the impromptu ceremony for Kazemi.

1743 GMT: Economy Watch. Iranian Labor News Agency reports that 1.5 million breadmakers have not received proper wages.

1739 GMT: New MediaWatch. The reformist newspaper Shargh considers new forms of political dialogue via social media, including Facebook.

1735 GMT: (In)Justice Watch. Kalemeh claims that university students are now being tried in military courts.

1725 GMT: Soft War Update (Spiderman Edition). Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the commander of the Basij militia, has announced the creation of “The Organization of Basij and the Media" to increase the activities and profile of the militia.

Naqdi warned a "Basij and Media" conference of the danger of “false” cartoon characters, such as Spiderman, and said that characters who promote the authority of the Islamic Republic should be on television.

1715 GMT: (Hiding the) Economy Watch. For the second straight year, the Central Bank of Iran has not revealed the rate of economic growth in annual state-of-the-economy report.

The International Monetary Fund has estimated the growth at under 1% for the year, which ended 20 March 2010.

The CBI report does show that Iran’s oil exports are at 2.24 million barrels a day, their lowest figure in many years. Oil production has falledn to 3.56 million barrels a day, a 10% decline from the previous year.

1710 GMT: Back from an extended break, including filming for Al Jazeera's Inside Story on the situation in Iraq, to find that three more defence attorneys have been detained. We have details in a separate entry.

1030 GMT: The Fight at the Bazaar. Video has been posted claiming to be of a clash between riot police and vendors at the bazaar in Orumiyeh in northwest Iran on Thursday.

1025 GMT: The Battle Within. Rooz Online publishes a summary of the recent challenge from Tehran Emrouz, linked to Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, to the President Ahmadinejad: “Mr. Ahmadinejad should not deny the existence of problems of Tehran. You are on the wrong path. Be kind to the residents of this city. This is Tehran.”

The editorial berated the President over his call for the relocation 3 million of the capital's residents (and 5 million in Tehran Province) over “danger of earthquakes” and “living conditions” such as “inflation and traffic”. It suggested that Tehranis recognised their problems and wanted solutions to them, such as the proposed improvements to the Tehran Metro system. The President's office has blocked the allocation of funds for the metro, claiming that money is being wasted on the project.

0740 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Messages. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Committee, gives the assurance that there is nothing to worry about on the economic front:

Americans believed sanctions, especially banning gasoline sales, will drag Iran into a serious crisis, but the government managed the sanctions prudently, and the world saw Iran even turn into a gasoline exporter. While under sanctions, we tapped into domestic potential to boost our technical knowhow and act to meet many of our most pressing needs, even in the air industry where we were usually an importer.

And the Supreme Leader's military advisor Brigadier General Yahya Rahim-Safavi had some excellent military news: “Undoubtedly, it was wise polices of the powerful and prudent Leader of the Islamic Revolution and his proper management that prevented Americans from approaching Iran after their invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq.” 

General Rahim-Safavi added that the Islamic Republic's high military power was the second key factor in protecting the country against possible US aggression. 

0730 GMT: A slow Saturday so far, so we are beginning with two special features. Two US-based Iranian attorneys, writing in Tehran Bureau, criticise the current shape of US sanctions on Tehran, and an EA correspondent offers some sharp advice on how Washington should talk to Iran.

Meanwhile, we offer an interesting twist to this week's narrative that Iran is the spectre behind the possibly-to-be-formed-soon Iraqi Government. Agence France Press reported on Monday:

A top US military officer said Monday that Iran's influence has waned in neighboring Iraq, where prolonged negotiations have struggled to decide on a new government.

"Probably in the last couple months, in this period of government formation, I think that we think that the Iranian influence has diminished somewhat," said Lieutenant General Robert Cone, the deputy commander of US operations in Iraq.

Cone gave a nuanced take on the role of Iran, which is a sworn foe of the United States but also strongly opposed Saddam Hussein's regime.

"We see all sorts of Iranian influence -- some of it positive, in fact," Cone told reporters in Washington by video-link.

"We believe some of it (is) negative, although it's very difficult to attribute that to the Iranian government," he said, explaining that weapons heading across the border could come from non-government players.

To my knowledge, no major US outlet picked up this message from the American military. So none of them, caught up in the more dramatic tale of "Tehran Behind Baghdad", asked the question: 

Why, after years of warnings of Iranian influence, manipulation, and even support of Iraqi insurgency, has the US military put out the first notes of a different tune? Is this in any way connected to consideration of a "grand bargain" with Tehran over Iraq and the region as well as Iran's nuclear programme?

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