UPDATED Iran Analysis: The Rafsanjani "Ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader

UPDATE 2100 GMT: Another possible twist tonight. Rafsanjani’s website has published an interview in which the former President talks about his letter to the Supreme Leader just before the elections, warning of President Ahmadinejad's "lies" and calling for a "fraudless" ballot. (Rafsanjani claims that that Khamenei did not object to the contents of the letter, but would have preferred it to have been published after the elections.) Rafsanjani also speaks at length about how he gathered funds for the clergy before the Revolution and how, together with others (such as Grand Ayatollahs Montazeri or Sane'i but with no reference to Khamenei), he was trusted by Ayatollah Khomeini to manage the revolutionaries’ funds.


The title of the interview: "In 42 some people were asking, 'Who will account for the blood of the 15 Khordad?'” That is a reference to the uprising of 5 June 1963, protesting the arrest of Khomeini; the protest was put down after six days by the Iranian military.

Perhaps Rafsanjani's question is not just historical recollection but an enquiry for today?

UPDATE 10 FEBRUARY, 1500 GMT: EA is now treated this story as confirmed. A reliable source has said that the Rafsanjani-Khamenei meeting was on Monday. Normally, in his official roles, Rafsanjani sees the Supreme Leaders on Tuesday; in this case, the former President asked for a special discussion.

While the immediate cause for Rafsanjani's intervention was the detention of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti and the reported search by Iranian authorities for Beheshti's wife, Rafsanjani did ask the Supreme Leader to act on all cases involving political prisoners. Our source notes perceptively the "7 Tir families", relatives of those killed in a bombing in the early days of the Revolution, had asked Rafsanjani for help with Beheshti and other cases; other families, learning of this appeal, then approached the former President.

The Rafsanjani intervention should also be connected to another important meeting, days earlier, between the Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, one of the most important clerics in Iran and Shi'a Islam. Mousavi-Ardebili, in his first meeting in 17 years with Khamenei, declared that he was "disappointed" in the Supreme Leader's actions and urged him to act decisively for justice in the cases of the detained.

An EA correspondent adds:

It is reported that Ardebili had told Khamenei, “I know the leaders of the protests in Qom and Tehran. I testify that they are after reforming the affairs of the state based on the constitution and are not after toppling you. Your concerns over this are misplaced."

By mentioning “Qom”, the seat of clerical learning in Iran, Ardebili is telling Khamenei that there is a substantial movement against the establishment in its heartland. The mention of “not after toppling you”: either means that Khamenei is very worried about his own position now or it is a threat from one of Shi'a Islam’s few Grand Ayatollahs. Ardebili could mean, "They are not after toppling you, but don’t do something that will force us, the marjas (senior clerics), to have to topple you."

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Let’s assume that the Rah-e Sabz news about the Rafsanjani meeting with Supreme Leader, spurred by the attempt to arrest Alireza Beheshi’s wife, is accurate.

We could say that trying to arrest the daughter-in-law of Shahid Beheshti and traumatizing his grandchildren is just too much for Rafsanjani and he has finally snapped. In this case this could be the first “public” crack in the Rafsanjani-Khamenei relationship. This could create opportunities both for Ahmadinejad & Co. and for the Greens.

On the coup side, they could use this to isolate Khamenei even more and get him to agree to their strategy of further suppression and crackdown. On the Green side, they could use this to draw Rafsanjani (and those within the Iranian establishment who look up to him) away from Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. This would further undermine the legitimacy of Khamenei and the whole Islamic Republic as it stands.

There may be another explanation too....

As you recall just before 16 Azar (the protests of 7 December), Rafsanjani went to Mashhad and said that if the people do not want us, we will leave. At the time that was seen as distancing himself from Supreme Leader, and it may have encouraged more students (especially in smaller towns) to come out. One could argue that he was blowing onto the fire from a distance.

A few days ago, Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili went to Tehran to meet Khamenei. This was their first meeting in 17 years. Leaked details of the discussion suggest that Ardebili criticized Khamenei’s handling of the state affairs and asked for Alireza Beheshti to be freed. It is reported that the Supreme Leader dismissed the criticism and refused to help with Beheshti. This information was most probably leaked by someone close to Ardebili (as Khamenei would not want it to be known that he was criticized and is behind Beheshti’s detention).

Now a few days after that meeting and a day after the leaking of the details of the meeting, it is reported that Rafsanjani has criticized the state of affairs and the treatment of Beheshti. And again the news is leaked.

This comes soon after Mir Hossein Mousavi stated that the Revolution has failed to get rid of the roots of tyranny and dictatorship and that he is seeing signs of both in Iran today. Mehdi Karroubi has said that he does not believe in this kind of Islamic Republic. And Mohammad Khatami has indirectly accused Khamenei of being a partial arbiter. (Others like Ayatollah Dashgheib have also criticised the SL). All of these could lead to one logical conclusion: that Khamenei is not fit to lead the Islamic Republic.

Now it may be that Rafsanjani is also putting Khamenei under pressure, not just by his strong protest and “ultimatum” but by allowing the news to be leaked. If this is the case, Rafsanjani would have skilfully used the attempt to arrest Beheshti’s wife to his advantage. In this case, Khamenei should be very mad at the people behind the arrest.

This leaked news may also be an attempt by Rafsanjani to say to the protestors: go out on 22 Bahman, and we (Rafsanjani and his people) will ensure that the regime does not crack down too hard.

If so, this could be a tactic which Iranian insiders call “feshar az paeen, chaneh-zani az bala”: pressure from below, negotiations at the top. Khatami tried this during his Presidency, with limited success. At that time one could argue that there was not much pressure from below, but now it seems the pressure from below is quite strong. It remains to be seen how skilful the negotiators are.

Iran Analysis: On the Eve of 22 Bahman

By yesterday, political battle lines had pretty much been drawn for the protests on 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, this Thursday. The regime had made its threats and tried to disrupt the opposition, key figures such as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and other reformist parties and clerics had made their calls for peaceful demonstrations, and the Green movements (less visibly for obvious reasons) had put their preparations in place.

Then two events --- one confirmed, one rumoured --- shook up our analysis. First, Alireza Beheshti was released from prison last night after several weeks in detention. Mousavi's chief advisor had also been freed in the autumn after a brief spell in prison, but this move was more surprising. Ever since Ashura (27 December), the regime has been using arrests to try and break resistance, so why --- on the eve of 22 Bahman --- make an apparent concession?

Hours later, a possible explanation emerged. Rah-e-Sabz made its sensational claim that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani had personally intervened with a visit to the Supreme Leader after Iranian authorities attempted to arrest Beheshti's wife. He asked not only for a cessation to that threat but for the freeing of Beheshti, the son of one of the most famous figures of the 1979 Revolution. (See separate entry for analysis.)

Iran Snap Analysis: The Rafsanjani “Ultimatum” to the Supreme Leader

And there was more. Rah-e-Sabz claimed that Rafsanjani, having been "ambiguous" in his statements since early December, had given an "ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader to act against the abuses and injustices of the Iranian Government. The unsubtle implication, as Beheshti was freed last night, was that Ayatollah Khamenei had listened and accepted the former President's criticism.

Well, we'll see, since neither Rafsanjani nor the Supreme Leader --- or anyone else, for that matter --- is stepping up to confirm the report.

What is important, in the meantime, is that there is a significant difference on the eve of this event compared to the political environment before Ashura (27 December). On that occasion, the only prominent opposition figure who made a move was former President Mohammad Khatami, and his memorial speech for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri was rudely broken up by pro-Government protesters. Mousavi, Karroubi, and other senior clerics were all muted about the demonstrations to come. And, after those protests, "conservative" figures such as Ali Larijani were unstinting in their criticism of the "violent" and "foreign-backed" Green movement.

Now all these figures are in play. Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami have put down their political markers for a big opposition show on Thursday and promised more to come. Rafsanjani, for the first time since early December, may have made his manoeuvre to challenge the Government. And Larijani, joined by others within the establishment, is now targeting Ahmadinejad as much as any Green protester.

This political change should not overshadow the importance of the demonstrations on the ground tomorrow. The demands "from below" for legitimacy, justice, and freedom are just as necessary as any high-profile statement or even "ultimatum".

Instead, what we now may have, for the first time since November, are the two halves of the challenge to the Government, and possibly the Iranian system, coming together. If the numbers are large, and even more if those multitudes are peaceful, then the Green wave for change will carry more possibilities for the politicians and clerics; conversely, each move by those politicians and clerics will bolster the demonstrators who are risking arrest and condemnation just by stepping foot into the streets and squares of Tehran and other cities on Thursday.

"From top" and "from below": it is less than 24 hours to 22 Bahman.

The Latest from Iran (8 February): Staying with the Real Story

2045 GMT: But There are Limits. One leading international media organisation is proclaiming that it has mobilised itself to cover Thursday's events in Iran. It has even set up a dedicated Twitter account for Iran, announced throughout today in a series of tweets.

Only problem is that this broadcaster/website hasn't quite got the hang of using Twitter for gathering latest news rather than for self-promotion. Total number of Twitter accounts it is following? 7, all of whom happen to be its own staff.

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The Latest from Iran (7 February): Tremors

2020 GMT: 22 Bahman is Back! The "Western" media, which only 12 hours ago seemed to be oblivious to anything Iran-related  unless it had the word "nuclear", has re-discovered the internal events and tensions. Numerous services are carrying the report of the Associated Press on the Supreme Leader's speech (1245, 1420, & 1940 GMT), while The New York Times picks up on Reuters' summary of the statements of Mir Hossein Mousavi (1635 GMT) and Mohammad Khatami (separate entry). Even America's ABC News has taken notice, catching up with Saturday's interview of Mehdi Karroubi in a German magazine.

And CNN, declaring that it was going to cover Iran closely before and on Thursday, has launched a special section on its website.

2015 GMT: Shutting Down the News. Pedestrian follows up on the arrest of photographer Amir Sadeghi, the creator of the excellent Tehran Live, and the detentions of both sisters of blogger Agh Bahman.

1940 GMT: We Are Number One (and We Will Punch You). More on the Supreme Leader's tough talk today (see 1245 GMT), one in which he did not walk out because of an inconvenient question (see 1420 GMT):

Today, there exists no system like the Islamic establishment in the world that can stand unshakably in the face of heavy, hostile propaganda, political and economic pressures and sanctions....[Because of our] reliance on God...whenever the people fear for the Revolution and sense threats and animosity, huge crowds of people, spontaneously and without convocation, take to the streets across the country.

1935 GMT: Blocking the Airwaves. An Iranian activist has reported that Voice of America Persian can no longer be received in Tehran.

1655 GMT: This Just In. Heading off to an academic commitment, but had to note this statement by the US Government and European Union, released by the White House:

The United States and the European Union condemn the continuing human rights violations in Iran since the June 12 election. The large scale detentions and mass trials, the threatened execution of protestors, the intimidation of family members of those detained and the continuing denial to its citizens of the right to peaceful expression are contrary to human rights norms.

Our concerns are based on our commitment to universal respect for human rights. We are particularly concerned by the potential for further violence and repression during the coming days, especially around the anniversary of the Islamic Republic's founding on 11 February.

We call on the Government of Iran to live up to its international human rights obligations, to end its abuses against its own people, to hold accountable those who have committed the abuses and to release those who are exercising their rights.

1635 GMT: Summary of Mousavi's Statement. Mir Hossein Mousavi told a group of youth and student activists today:

Disgracing and insulting people and the freedom of thought has nothing to do with Islam. I believe that the nation knows what is best for it and the collective wisdom is the superior wisdom and that is why the Islamic Revolution happened. If we want to save Islam as an asset for the nation, our own interests should not endanger the interests of Islam....

The only demand of the force that has come to the scene today is to return to the main laws and values of the Islamic Revolution, but it is being falsely accused. The Green Movement of the nation of Iran is independent, rational and peaceful. We are not opposed to Basij, the Revolutionary Guards or the police; but rather we are opposed to violence, beating and killing.

1630 GMT: Claim of the Day. The Los Angeles Times, citing a source inside Tehran's police headquarters, claims up to three million opposition protesters may be on the streets on Thursday. The source compared that number to 500,000 pro-Government demonstrators who were out in Tehran on 30 December. The article also claims that about 12,000 Basiji militiamen will be moved into the capital from around the country.

1445 GMT: We've just come out of a discussion of EA's coverage for 22 Bahman to see the English translation of today's statement by former President Mohammad Khatami. We've posted in a separate entry.

1420 GMT: Challenging the Supreme Leader. Khodnevis reports that, during Ayatollah Khamenei’s recent meeting with academics, Hojatoleslam Javadi-Amoli (the son of Ayatolah Javadi-Amoli), asked a pointed question about the President. Javadi-Amoli referred to an encounter between his father and Ahmadinejad, in which the President claimed that, during a speech to the United Nations General, he was covered by a halo of light. The video of the President's account was posted on YouTube but, during the 2009 campaign, Ahmadinejad claimed the story was lies made up by the enemy.

Javadi-Amoli asked the Supreme Leader, “We see many times in religious texts that the ruler of Islamic countries, in order to protect the interests of his country’s people, is permitted to hide parts of the truth, but he cannot say that his own saying is a lie and attribute it to the ramblings of a sick mind. Can one expect justice from such a ruler?”

At that point Khamenei says that he did not have time and left the meeting.

1300 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued its call for Iranians to accompany Green and opposition figures in the 22 Bahman rally.

Green movement activists in Ahvaz have also put out a statement.

1255 GMT: Another Media Detention. Amir Sadeghi, photographer for Farhange Ashti, has been arrested at work.

1250 GMT: We Will, We Will Rock You. The Tehran commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, General Hossein Hamadani, has declared again that the Revolutionary Guard will "deal severely" with any protesters on Thursday.

1245 GMT: We Will, We Will Punch You. That is the Supreme Leader's latest line for Thursday, as he told Air Force personnel, "The Iranian nation, with its unity and God's grace, will punch the arrogance (of Western powers) on the 22nd of Bahman in a way that will leave them stunned."

Using the foreign agents gambit to rule out legitimate protest, Khamenei said that the "most important aim of the sedition after the election was to create a rift within the Iranian nation, but it was unable to do so and our nation's unity remained a thorn in its eyes".

1135 GMT: The Next 22 Bahman Move? A group of youth and student activists have met with Mir Hossein Mousavi today, declaring that they will march on Thursday with Green symbols to seek justice and freedom and announcing "to the totalitarians" that sooner or later they will free the Islamic Republic from oppression. We are awaiting a text of Mousavi's remarks.

1125 GMT: Another High-Profile Sentence. Former Deputy Foreign Minister Mohsen Aminzadeh has reportedly been given a six-year prison term for "disturbing" national security and spreading propaganda.

1110 GMT: Targeting Mortazavi. 57 members of Parliament have written to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, and President Ahmadinejad to demand the immediate dismissal and trial of Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi for his alleged role in the Kahrizak Prison abuses.

1100 GMT: Khomeini v. The Regime. Ezzatollah Zarghami, the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Republic, has replied sharply to the complaint of Seyed Hassan Khomeini about IRIB's "censorship" of the speeches of his grandfather, Ayatollah Khomeini: "If only you had written a protest letter to condemn the shameful events after the election...."

0940 GMT: Million-Dollar Defendant. After 216 days in detention, Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, finally stood trial on Sunday. Proceedings are ongoing; Arab Sorkhi’s bail has been set at more than $1 million.

Meanwhile, journalist Emadeddin Baghi remains in solitary confinement despite the end of his interrogation.

0935 GMT: A New Voice. The Green Voice of Freedom website, from which we are pictured up some latest news items, has launched an English edition.

0930 GMT: Freed. Amidst the dominant news of arrests, a belated notice of released: last week 10 students from Elm-o-Sanat University, detained on and after Ashura, were let out of prison.

0920 GMT: And Now the Real News. Following the complaint from Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the Imam's grandson, to the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ahmad Montazeri --- son of the Grand Ayatollah, who died in December --- has sent a letter of protest.

The issue is an IRIB interview with former Minister of Intelligence Ali Fallahian, who launched a fierce criticism of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.

0910 GMT: It Gets Worse. The BBC's top radio programme, Today, having done a muddled but creditable effort to get beyond the misleading headlines on Iran (see 0715 GMT), threw it all away with an appalling interview an hour ago.

The fault lay not with the interviewee, Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, but with the interviewer, Evan Davies, whose obsession was to establish that Iran might soon have The Bomb. That distortion was only corrected at the end of the discussion, when Fitzpatrick --- moving from theory and fantasy to reality --- noted that Iran does not have the technical capacity to maintain its current civilian programme, let alone establish weapons capability.

Meanwhile, the Green Movement made a fleeting appearance as the device to get a "more acceptable regime" in Iran on the nuclear issue.

Across the Atlantic, Juan Cole does an effective job taking away Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's "scare" rhetoric in her interview with CNN on Sunday and then putting the Ahmadinejad declaration in appropriate context.

0820 GMT: And This is Just Silly. Reuters reports, without blinking an eye, Salehi's declaration, ""Iran will set up 10 uranium enrichment centers next year."

Hmm.... At least that's not quite as extravagant as President Ahmadinejad's snap announcement last autumn that Iran would build 20 centres (an event that EA readers recalled yesterday). Reuters might also want to note, beyond its sentence, "Analysts have expressed skepticism whether sanctions-bound Iran, which has problems obtaining materials and components abroad, would be able to equip and operate 10 new plants", that Iran cannot even keep one centre, Natanz, functioning at more than 50 percent capacity.

0745 GMT: Nuclear Kabuki. Tehran keeps up the sideshow this morning, with Iranian state media headlining the declaration of the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akhbar Salehi, "We have written a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to announce our intention to enrich uranium to 20 percent. We will send this letter to the world's atomic watchdog on Monday and then start enrichment on Tuesday in the presence of inspectors and observers from the IAEA."

Dramatic? No. This is no more than a restatement of what Iran is allowed to do under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, since the 20-percent level is for civilian rather than military uses. Indeed, that is (and has been for months) the real uranium issue: whether soon Iran runs out of fuel for its medical research reactor.

0715 GMT: The gap between image and reality has widened overnight in coverage of Iran. The "Western" press, with few exceptions, have now done their lemming jump into a simplistic portrayal of President Ahmadinejad's Sunday media stunt: his declaration that Iran would immediately start producing 20-percent enriched uranium so it can ensure self-sufficiency if there is no "swap" deal with the West.

This morning, BBC's top radio programme has one of the better stories, noting both the obvious (that Ahmadinejad's expectation is "unrealistic", given the technical issues with Iran's nuclear programme( and the important (that the move, in large part, comes from domestic pressure). Even so, the piece opens with the overall declaration that this is "yet another step" in "Iran's nuclear confrontation" with Western powers, which is a bit curious since --- less than a week ago --- the Iranian President was reviving the possibility of a "swap" of enriched uranium outside Iran.
And, beyond that, the bigger picture of the post-election challenge to the Iranian Government and possibly the Iranian system fades.

CNN, for example, is making a big noise on Twitter that it is launching in-depth coverage for the demonstrations of 22 Bahman, Thursday's anniversary of the 1979 Revolution. Yet its feature story is solely devoted to Ahmadinejad's Sunday proclamation, with the internal situation distorted into two concluding paragraphs:

Sunday's announcement of the new enriched uranium plans falls within the 10-day period marking the 31st anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled the U.S.-backed shah.

Celebrations commemorating the overthrow began last week and will culminate on February 11.

The immediate damage is that the important developments inside Iran escape notice. This morning, for example, we have published a list of 57 journalists who are detained, amongst hundreds of other political prisoners.

The wider significance of such blinkered and sensational visions is that it is unlikely that the complexities of the contest for power will not be understood on Thursday. Instead, 22 Bahman will suddenly leap into the media frame as a breathless and somewhat confused story of "What are the numbers?", "Where is the violence?", and "Where is the video?", with little appreciation of the real pressure on President Ahmadinejad.

That pressure is coming from inside the Iranian establishment, as well as outside it. Perhaps more importantly, Thursday could be a marker of whether that pressure builds on other parts of the regime, including the position of the Supreme Leader.

22 Bahman is three days away.

The Latest from Iran (7 February): Tremors

2045 GMT: Kalemeh is reporting that more than 1000 students at Sharif University demonstrated today over detentions of their classmates.

2030 GMT: Ali Kalai of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters has been re-arrested, and journalist Ehsan Mohrabi is reported to have been detained tonight.

1950 GMT: Criticising Khomeini. That's right --- days before the celebration of the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, 180 members of Parliament have signed a statement denouncing the Imam's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini. The dispute arose when Khomeini wrote the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghamai, complaining about "censorship" of his grandfather's speeches.

1930 GMT: Conservative Mischief. Ayande News stirs the pot with a story claiming that Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai went to Switzerland recently, not only to promote a "uranium swap" on Iran's Kish Island but also to pursue secret meetings on other issues, presumably with US officials. The paper, quoting French and Swiss newspapers, ponders what covert messages Rahim-Mashai brought.

No prizes here to guess the propaganda: the "conservative opposition" wants to stick Ahmadinejad, through his right-hand man, with the label of appeaser of Washington.

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1925 GMT: After all our frustration with the media coverage of the Ahmadinejad nuclear moves this week, full marks to Borzou Daragahi and Julian Barnes of the Los Angeles Times for nailing the story: "In a possible move to deflect attention from Iran's political woes, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday ordered the nation's atomic energy agency to begin enriching uranium from 3.5% to 20% purity to serve as fuel for a Tehran medical reactor."


1900 GMT: Oh Dear G** (cont.). We've posted the video of Sarah Palin's political advice to Barack Obama: "Bomb Iran".

1715 GMT: Oh Dear G**. Sometimes objectivity has to give way before the train-wreck of politics and media coverage. This morning's charade plays out, as the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akhbar Salehi, dutifully responding to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's call, says, "As Iranian president [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] announced, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran will start enriching uranium to a level of 20 percent if talks on fuel swap fail to achieve an outcome."

Instead of calling out the pretence in the Ahmadinejad game --- if Iran can enrich uranium to 20 per cent and thus does not need a deal with the West, why haven't they been doing so for many months? --- the Western media chase this without question. Indeed, CNN elevates this to a crisis moment --- "a fresh challenge to Western powers bidding to rein in Tehran's galloping nuclear drive" --- never noticing the internal situation behind the President's move.

About the only political/media stunt more distressing/humourous than this is a woman named Sarah Palin, who today advises President Obama to ensure his re-election by bombing Iran.

1555 GMT: Revolving Door. While the regime is sweeping up activists and journalists, there have been releases as well. Ali Gholi Tabar and Morteza Saremi, members of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution have been released on bail.

1415 GMT: More Detained Journalists (see 1205 GMT). Mahsa Jazini of Iran newspaper has been detained.

1400 GMT: The Other Side of the Mottaki Visit. While the international media was dwelling on the nuclear issue during Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's jaunt to the Munich Security Conference, others were highlighting the internal situation in no uncertain terms.



A United for Iran activist explains the issues in an interview with Germany's Welt TV.

1300 GMT: Here We Go. The Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring a statement from the Ministry of Intelligence, putting out the grand narrative --- four days before the demonstrations of 22 Bahman --- of protesters supported by the US and Israel:

Seven people organisationally linked to the counter-revolutionaries, the Zionist media and elements of the sedition have been arrested....A number of them were officially hired by the U.S. intelligence agency, the CIA.

The detainees, who were not named, were allegedly involved with the US Government-backed Farsi-language station Radio Farda and received training in Istanbul and Dubai in disrupting public order, spreading rumors and conducting sabotage. The seven supposedly played a significant role in "post-election riots", especially on Ashura (27 December).

1205 GMT: Latest arrests include journalists Zeinab Kazemkhah, Samiyeh Momeni, Ahmad Jalali-Farihani of Mehr, and Akbar Montajab of Etemade-Melli.


1155 GMT: Coming Out for 22 Bahman. Rah-e-Sabz has published a summary of calls from reformist and Green groups, including the Mohajedin of Islamic Revolution and Etemade Melli parties, for people to demonstrate this Thursday.

An English translation of the statement of the reformist Association of Combatant Clerics has now been posted.

1145 GMT: This Has Nothing to Do with 22 Bahman. Really. I can only report this "straight" and let everyone draw their own judgements. From Agence France Presse:

Iran said on Sunday its Internet connections will remain slow this week due to technical problems, ahead of anticipated protests by opposition supporters. Connections have been slow since last week and some email accounts have been unavailable for several hours each day.

"The cause of the reduced Internet speed in recent days is that part of the fibre-optic network is damaged," Communications Minister Reza Taghipour told Iran's state broadcaster. "The breakage will be repaired by next week and the Internet speed will be back to normal". ["Next week" begins 13 February.]

Taghipour said the undersea optic fibre across the Gulf between the Iranian port of Jask and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates had been damaged due to shipping traffic and anchoring. He also acknowledged that text messaging in Iran had been disrupted, blaming it on "changing software."

0940 GMT: Nuclear Fiddling (cont.). So why did Ahmadinejad shift again this morning on Iran's enrichment of uranium (see 0835 GMT)? Consider the setting, the exhibition of Laser Science and Technology Achievements: you can't exactly prove you're setting the scientific/technological worlds on fire if you put forward dependency on the "West" for your advances.

And consider the immediate cause: Ahmadinejad's declaration of self-sufficiency, as framed by state media, was "to meet the demands of the country's cancer patients". In other words, Iran is on the verge of running out of 20-percent uranium for its medical research reactors. That is the same concern that took it to the International Atomic Energy Agency last June with the offer to negotiate. And that concern is still very much present.

0840 GMT: Economy in the Pocket of Government? The Iranian Labor News Agency, in the context of the Government's budget proposals, offers an interesting overview of the Iranian economy.

0835 GMT: Nuclear Fiddling While XXX Burns. Days after he tried the headline approach of a deal on uranium enrichment with the West, President Ahmadinejad doubles back this morning in a televised speech with the declaration that Iran can be self-sufficient:

We had told them (the West) to come and have a swap, although we could produce the 20 percent enriched fuel ourselves. We gave them two-to-three months' time for such a deal. They started a new game and now I (ask) Dr Salehi (the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization) to start work on the production of 20 percent fuel using centrifuges....The doors for interaction are still open.

I leave it  for readers, in light of our analysis this morning, to fill in the XXXs with their interpretation. Meanwhile, the non-Iranian media --- apparently oblivious to the internal developments in Iran in the last 24 hours --- are following over themselves to feature Ahmadinejad's latest statement without considering why he made it.

0830 GMT: Journalist Jamileh Darolshafaie and her sister, music teacher Banafsheh Darolshafaie, have been arrested.

0815 GMT: We begin this Sunday morning, four days before 22 Bahman and the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, trying to put together the dramatic and somewhat unexpected developments from the declarations of the opposition to the letter from a key MP to Mir Hossein Mousavi seeking the deal "Accept Khamenei, Reject Ahmadinejad". Our special analysis sets out why all of this is a sign of regime weakness.

A couple more supporting pieces of evidence this morning: Ayatollah Dastgheib, a persistent critic of the Government and indeed of the system, has declared, "One Person Cannot Rule 70 Million People". That's a pretty direct challenge to the Supreme Leader and velayat-e-faqih (clerical supremacy). Dastgheib, echoing the demands for freedoms made in last night's manifesto of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Party, declared:

It seems like today all the affairs of the country is in the hands of Revolutionary Guards and police and people have no say or will and this is the basis of the diversion from the principles of the revolution....

The armed forces, police, Revolutionary Guards and military should consider people’s benefit not their own benefit; they should guard people’s lives, belongings and dignity....The police should support the religious figures and scholars and not do something to isolate them, leaving no dignity for anyone except those who obey them.

Iran Special: The Weakness of the Regime "It's Deja Vu All Over Again"

It's one of those phrases that I have always wanted to use in a news story. Yogi Berra, a great American baseball player but a notorious mangler of language, once said of the feats of the teammates, "It's like déjà vu all over again."

A few months we wrote of an attempt by the Ahmadinejad Government, as it set out the priority of a deal with the "West" on Iran's nuclear programme, that this was a blatant attempt to divert attention from internal political crisis. We added that, despite the headlines that the manoeuvre would get, the effort would soon be exposed.

Iran: The “Reconciliation” Proposals of Karroubi’s Etemade Melli Party
Iran: “Conservative Opposition” Offer to Mousavi “Back Khamenei, We Sack Ahmadinejad”
Iran Document: Karroubi’s Open Letter for 22 Bahman (6 February)
Iran: Quick! Look Over There! The Nuclear Distraction

In less than 24 hours, we were proved right as the "conservative opposition", figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and the Green movement attacked the Government on a number of fronts.

Yesterday, it was déjà vu all over again.


In the morning, all the buzz in the US and British press was Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's declaration in Munich that an agreement could be reached on a "swap" of uranium outside Iran. There was the inevitable cycle of surprise that Tehran could hold out the prospect and then of scepticism as "Western" politicians put the brakes on expectations.

We, however, were listening to the tick-tick-tick of opposition within the Iranian establishment. As early as Thursday, there was unsubtle signals from Parliament and key politicians that they were unhappy with President Ahmadinejad's declaration on national television that uranium could be sent outside Iran. Yesterday morning, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani left no doubt: his attack on the deal was not, first and foremost, an attack on the "West" but on his President.

Even this, however, was just another act in the nuclear sideshow. Throughout Saturday, only a few days before the demonstrations of  22 Bahman (11 February), the main event was the exposure of weakness and fear, not only in the Government but within the Iranian regime.

It came in yet more statements from opposition figures. Have no doubt: this is no longer a Mousavi or a Khatami or a Karroubi putting out a declaration but a co-ordinated campaign --- the "relay of opposition" --- to keep the Government unsettled and to build up momentum for 22 Bahman. Yesterday it was a statement from Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi's forthright boost for protest and criticism of the regime in interviews and on his website, and then Karroubi's party Etemade Melli putting out a manifesto for this week's demonstrations.

The Government response? A whimper. As President Ahmadinejad went to a girls' school to proclaim the Revolution lived through more than 1200 education and sports projects, a couple of officials like Iran's police chief insisted that the protests would be broken. Bluster rather than substance was exposed, however, when it was the magazine of the Revolutionary Guards that was the key site for warning Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi, "Repent or Else".

Or Else what? While the extent of the regime's crackdown should not be underestimated --- the detainees languish in prison, the Internet crawls to a near-stop --- the persistence of the opposition is clear outside Iran and, I suspect, inside the country. (Note that Mousavi started this latest cycle of declarations more than a week before 22 Bahman, probably to assure that --- despite the limits on communications --- there was enough time to get the message throughout Green networks.)

So last night it was not just a case of opposition confidence. It was also the clearest sign of regime fear. No firm predictions, but diligent historians may one day blow the dust off Saturday's open letter of prominent member of Parliament Ali Motahhari to Mousavi.

Of course, Motahhari tries to show strength through tough language: "Our gracious Leader in his recent speech has mildly described the actions of you and Karroubi as 'negligence'. These are signals for you to change your position with the aim of strengthening national unity." However, beneath the demand is a pleading: accept the supremacy of the Supreme Leader, and we will deal with this President who is undermining the Republic.

That letter,disseminated quickly in state media, is not one of a regime in control. That letter is not one of a regime in the blush of confidence. Even if the most cynical of us think it is a trick --- Mousavi acknowledges Khameini, walking away from the Green opposition, but Ahmadinejad stays --- you don't play tricks on opponents whom you think are on the verge of defeat.

Compare Motahhari's move with the previous pre-demonstration displays of machismo by the regime: the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer of 19 June, the warnings before Qods Day in September not to take to the streets, the finger-wagging and attempts at intimidation before Ashura, even the threats of execution last week. The leaders in this system are shaking.

And, on the other side, compare the relay of statements from Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi to their lack of statements before Ashura. This time they are vocal, this time there is no doubt that --- while the protest should be non-violent and respectful --- the dissent should be visible.

All the while, below the public level of the regime's fretting and the defiance of its challengers, the Green Movement(s) plan.

It is four days to 22 Bahman.