Saturday
Feb202010
Iran: "It's All Over" for the Green Movement?
Saturday, February 20, 2010 at 7:14 
It is one of the most striking articles to come out of Iran in recent weeks. A journalist for a US newspaper, who has stayed behind when his colleagues have left or been expelled, sits in a kitchen with four Iranian activists:The opposition supporters nervously smoked cigarettes in the kitchen as loud music blared from the empty living room. A student, a businessman, a writer and an artist had planned a victory party but instead were mourning their defeat.
"It's all over," said the student, a young woman in a sleek black dress. "Our only option is to leave the country."
That is the opening of Thomas Erdbrink's atmosphere piece in The Washington Post this morning, and the bleakness is unrelenting:
"It was impossible to join up with other protesters," the student at the party said as she tried to reconstruct what went wrong. "There were just too many security forces."
She took a puff from her 10th cigarette that evening. "We were all supposed to meet up at the main square where Ahmadinejad would speak. There, we would all bring out green ribbons, to show how many we were," she said.
Instead, she found small pockets of protesters in side alleys, not knowing where to go or what to do. "We ended up with a couple thousand people running from the security forces," she said. "Our movement needs new tactics, but I have no idea what we should do."
After (or before?) the encounter in the kitchen, there are the thoughts of the Iranian blogger:
"I hope they can come up with new strategies, but I have no idea what those should be," said an influential blogger who is a member of an unofficial opposition think tank made up of Web activists. He suggested turning the first anniversary of the disputed June 12 presidential election into a day of protest.
"But I guess the government would just repeat what they do normally: declare each protest illegal and flood the streets with security forces," he said.
"In the end, the street is the only place where we can show how many people we are, but few people are ready to go to prison or get hurt," he said.
During recent demonstrations, he recalled, his friends would call him from their homes and offices while he was running from the police.
"If they are not ready to sacrifice anything, why should I be?" he asked. "My personal strategy out of this mess is to apply for a visa for Canada."
After the inclusion of former journalist Abbas Abdi, "There are moments that one person should say: This is how we will do this, whether you like it or not", Erdbrink returns to the gloom of the kitchen:
At the party, there was consensus on one issue. "Just because our protest failed, that doesn't mean we have lost our anger," the student said. "We have a very simple demand: freedom. But I don't see how we can get it."
So that's that, then? With The Post headline blaring, "Iranian opposition demoralized after failed protests at revolution's anniversary", has the white flag been unfurled?
Hmm....
Erdbrink is a very good journalist, and I don't it is possible to overestimate his tenacity in trying to report from Iran when most foreign reporters have deparated the country. That tribute, however, should not stand in the way of critiquing an article which quickly jumps from being an interesting snapshot to posting a once-and-for-all declaration.
A useful start might be another look at that opening paragraph at the failed "victory party". That indicates that Erdbrink's kitchen interview took place on 22 Bahman (11 February).
That was, indeed, a depressing day for many in the Iranian opposition. But I don't think it is a wild claim to suggest that the mood might not be permanent and/or fatal to the movement. In the following nine days, there have been re-assessments and renewed declarations. There has been not only the signal of the meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi but also statements from other reformist groups and activist organisations.
Of course, it would be a jump from analysis to speculation to argue that these numerous but often scattered signs mean that the opposition has regained the momentum of Ashura (27 December). For Erdbrink, however,
all of this can be set aside on the basis of his four depressed partiers, one blogger, and one "political analyst": "The government's strategy might eventually backfire, but for the time being, it has served to justify authorities' dismissal of the opposition as a meaningless band of foreign-backed counterrevolutionary rioters."
Reporting, especially first-hand reporting, is valuable. Sweeping predictions are dangerous. Erdbrink's article is likely to race around the Internet and discussion boards today as the definition of "defeat", but another nine days from now, its declarations will likely be another footnote to this ongoing conflict.
Marathon, not a sprint.
Reader Comments (42)
Megan,
It's not a 180 degree in opposite direction, The Washington Post version of Thomas Erdbrinks' Friday story in NRC Handelsblad - his Dutch outlet. It's just shorter, different following order, condensed, more 'fact like', missing (in my view important) elements.
I guess it's what The WP feels is more 'sexy' or appealing to the American public.
Like I said: that's 'official media' for you. They have to make money, stand out, get customers.
Thank God for citizen journalism! Like here on EA :-)
Go slowly and be restaint, dear Iraniens! At the worse caste you must wait until the next election and then you can present the bill to your regime. The time "works" for you !
Nothing is "over" except for the first stage of this movement, which relied on protests as its main strategy. That it would be "over" sooner or later was inevitable as every occasion so far, from Qods Day to Ashura to 16 Azar has demonstrated that - though effective as a means of displaying the opposition's strength and determination - street protests ALONE are not going to win the reforms the Green movement is seeking. 22 Bahman just showed this a bit more clearly than some of the previous ones.
The Green movement is resourceful. In the weeks and months to come it will find new strategies with which to achieve its goals. This may involve such things as strikes and other forms of civil disobedience, or - what I think is perhaps more likely - something entirely new as once the idea of "strikes" were novel and innovative. New leaders may emerge and help these tactics to take shape.
My gut feeling is that, in the long run, 22 Bahman may be a blessing in disguise. Even if it had been more "successful" in that protesters were able to gather more effectively, would it have toppled the regime? Almost certainly not. In which case it would simply have been another Green protest (with a slew of arrests, deaths and human rights violations following in its wake) in a long string of Green protests. And the regime would have taken note of the Green movement's success and prepared yet more thoroughly (more Basijis, communication crackdowns, etc) for the next one. A "failed" protest, given what the regime has available to throw at the Greens, was inevitable sooner or later. If it helps the Greens to rethink and build upon their previous tactics, then better sooner than later.
response to my dear friends here on the eanews community #22bahman was actually a win for the opposition and it clearly showed how paranoid the regime is and how scared, desperate and frightened it is by its own people that it had full geared revolutionary guards on the ground in all major cities in Iran.The government also was in full gear by basically deploying the army on the streets of Tehran blocking all internet and e-mail access ports and ensuring that no video is going to show up on Youtube. But one thing they have missed is the willingness and desire of the Iranian people for demanding for greater freedom, prosperity and democracy and when there is will things can happen. As you saw despite all those restrictions applied by the elements in the Iranian regime of course thanks to Siemens and Nokia for helping the Iranian government to track and execute opposition to through Internet people managed to send clips and images of the opposition protests. peace=)
@ Scott, WitteKr and Megan RE Eberdink's WP piece
I really think there's more to the WP editing than "what The WP feels is more ’sexy’ or appealing to the American public." I discussed Eberdink's work for the WP with Scott once in a private e-mail and Scott said something to the effect that Eberdink was doing his best to produce accurate and balanced coverage of Iran despite the WP's "editorial slant". The WP is a known war cheerleader, and their position on Iran has always been extremely critical, so Scott, if you see our questions regarding the extent and nature of the WP's editing of their own contributors' pieces, maybe you can tell us what you know.
Well, now that we've answered the question “It’s All Over” for the Green Movement? - no - let's look at some ideas for future protests or grassroots actions to re-assert pressure on the government. This article explores what bloggers have been saying about the pros and cons of using upcoming Nowruz holidays and the potential for labour union strikes or other workers' actions to pressure the government.
http://www.insideiran.org/critical-comments/greens-shift-strategy-in-wake-of-february-11/
Catherine
Post 31, I agree with Pedestrian for the next demonstration of green movement; it's better to do it in sizdeh bedar which is a familial gathering, and if the workers ,( imagine only 900000 people from electricity cie ), join in, it will be a magnificent demonstration; chaharshanbeh souri will have a war athmosphere and as Pedestrian has said, people in green movement are not thugs and rioters as are the entourage of AN; workers in Iran have to know that there is no end to their miserable life with this current government, that if they want to change their conditions of life, they have to collaborate with green movement, because thanks to it, we will have more money in the country instead of spending it in Lebanon or Gaza ! feeding terrorism, and iranian people will have more chance to live decently.
The (WPJ)article is outdated and stale. It's the closest you can come to a tabloid journalism. What we're withessing in Iran is not an "American Election" in which people abandon their aspirations the morning after the Election.
This is an Iranian Revolution in the making and nothing will stay the same when the dust settles.
"This is an Iranian Revolution in the making and nothing will stay the same when the dust settles."
Statistics prove Pingfinger right:
The movement for democracy is to be found in cities among the younger as well as more educated sections of the population. Thus the tenor of reporting in general.
In addition therefore it some figures and data.
The age median in Iran is 27 years (i.e. half of the population is younger than this figure); the age median of Germany is approx. 44 years.
Iran and. Italy have an identical degree of urbanisation degree: 68% live in cities respectively.
Literacy in Iran with more than 80 % approaches that of Turkey with approx. 87%.
The official election result of over 35% for the opposition bestows a higher degree of political legitimation to the opposition than each single large German popular party with a large and broad electorate is able to dispose of
(i.e. definitely under 35%; more exactly:
SPD [Socialdemocrats] - 23%;
CDU/CSU [Christian-Democrats] - 33.8%;
FDP [Liberaldemocrats] – 14,6%)
after the last election to the Bundestag/parliament, the election of the present coalition government CDU/CSU plus FDP = 48,4 %).
In other words, the violent suppression of the oppositional trends is likely condemned to (mid- and longterm) failure at least from a demographic and statistical point of view.
Judging by the comments here it would seem there is a need for a 'green' protest movement in Washington against censorship by corporate media serving particular interests. & democratic uprising is badly needed there to force Obama to keep to his promises of 'change' . A year after his inaugration he & his team are beginning to look more like Bush & his neocons. For a man who promised so much could not get Guantanamo bay closed or Bush officials who were implicated in torture indicted, pandering to the right wing elements of the Israeli lobby, wanting Baathists who were responsible for so much torture and killing in Iraq that it actually would make the IRI look angelic by contrast , and worse want the Taliban back in government. The very people who aided, abetted and harboured the terrorists who planned & executed the 9/11 tragedy leading to the loss of many American lives. A recent poll suggests that most Americans are unhappy with Obama's administration whilst a poll of Iranians in Iran suggests that over 60% regard Ahmedinejad as honest & their rightful president. The American citizens on this website should be launching their own protest movements to force Obama's admin to return to the path he promised of peaceful change and stop pandering to the prejudices of the right wing & zionist lobby & not inflict any more pain on the people of the Middle East. and Afghanistan and get what every US citizen deserves and which citizens of all other advanced countries enjoy as a matter of right not privilege - the world's best universal healthcare system -
As for the Iranian opposition they need to understand that the vast majority of the Iranian people are religiously devout at heart & whatever might be the inadequacies of the current system out of which many millions have actually benefitted that they cannot exchange the comparative peace & security & freedoms that they enjoy (as compared to their neighbours) in exchange for chaos, uncertainty & foreign intervention. They have every right to be fearful of the extreme secular agenda of some in the opposition. The genuine reformists such as Karroubi, Moussawi et al need to do their homework better and prepare for the next elections as did Al Gore and his Democrats after Bush's rigged second election victory. They may have to adapt to being the unrecognised opposition, although they have received far greater coverage, as that of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt from the 'democratically' elected staunch US ally, Mubarak. At the end the party that wishes to be triumphant must do its homework & be prepared to make the necessary sacrifices come what may.
Not sure if this comment will work from my cell phone, but I wanted to note that a contact of mine at The Post tells me that this piece by Erdbrink was severely edited by one singular editor, and does not read very much like the original piece submitted does. The edited piece apparently has much more implication that the Green movement may have suffered a fatal blow, whereas the unedited piece had no such implication.
Kevin,
Thanks so much for that clarification. As far as you know, what can Mr Erdbrink - or any other journalist in his shoes - do about editing that actually changes the message of his article - at the WP in particular but also in general?
Kevin,
Thanks for looking into this. I'm not surprised but still very angry - maybe even more now. It looks like lazy journalism with one editor, thinking he (she?) can make the article 'better' and more WP-like.
I think the only one who can correct this is the author of the original, Thomas Erdbrink - by getting very angry with the WP management. Why have correspondents in the field, taking risks, if you think you can write the story better?
But I'm afraid Erdbrink has other things on his mind - and probably no idea what his WP version caused...
@WitteKr and Catherine,
Since a few years I have been a 'fan' of www.onzemaninteheran.com. After the 12th of June were more references to onzeman on the blog of EA, but I was always scared to post a reaction with more details about onzeman. I was afraid of blowing his cover. Now you gave so much details about him. I guess you are more familiar with the current safety situation for journalists (especially foreign journalists, writing for western newspapers) in Iran but are you not afraid that this EA blog is followed by cyber agents from the Iranian regime?
Dag Nelly,
I don't think it makes much difference. He has been blogging from Tehran since 2005 and nothing has ever happened to him, in fact I (perhaps you too) just saw him reporting live from Tehran for the Dutch 20.00 news (NOS Journal) on 11 February. The only thing is, of course, that he hasn't posted since 21 March last year. The reason is not explained on the blog, so my guess is that it could be self-censorship or on "someone's advice".
Hoi Catherine,
He explained it himself by having less time because of the writing for WP. Or maybe he was bored by the endless quarrels between the commentators of his posts. It seemed that Iranians (even abroad) always disagree with each other and seldom trust each other.
But maybe I'm a little paranoid about onzeman's situation over there. It is a fact that he is one of the rare foreign journalists inside the country, but maybe he is being monitored by officials from the start and he is fully aware off the boundaries of what he cannot write or not. I just hope he and his family are allright.
Groetjes Nelly
rezvan,
BS, as usual, from top to bottom.