The Latest from Iran (12 December): Bubbling Under

2250 GMT: Apologies. Earlier, we erroneously posted a Reuters report that Mir Hossein Mousavi had called for a national strike if he is arrested. A case of moving too quickly on a tense night: the report is from 20 June.

2220 GMT: Bubbling Over? Back after an evening's break to find a swirl of rumours --- if this morning started with tensions bubbling under, the evening has brought the prospect of them bubbling over.

The furour over the alleged burning of Imam Khomeini's picture, stirred by pro-Government media, is now being read as a pretext for possible aggressive action against opposition leadership. Kalemeh, the website associated with Mir Hossein website, has posted this note:

WARNING: Beware that an event is unfolding!

Kaleme: Following the planned scenario for disgracing Imam Khomeini and accusing the Green movement and the students of this act, since yesterday official pro-Ahmadinejad media have started a heavy propaganda with a hidden agenda and based on the information available it seems that they are preparing for some harsher crack downs.

All supporters of the Green movement are strongly advised to be extremely vigilant and make sure to stay on top of the latest news.

Because of the extreme restrictions on informing people, Kaleme (Mousavi's official website) is advising other news media to warn their users about the necessity of being watchful!

You Are The Media !

The Kalemeh post has in turn prompted other sites such as Norooz to speculate that Mousavi's arrest may be imminent. We are monitoring the situation but must emphasize that, at this point, these reports are just rumours.

1650 GMT: The Back-and-Forth on the "Burning" of Khomeini. EA's Mr Smith, after consulting sources, checks in to work through the possibilities of the story:

Many remain convinced that the act was indeed really anti-regime. However, whether or not the burning of the photograph was genuine, the follow-up was predictable: Iranian TV trumpeted the footage as proof of the Green Wave's anti-revolutionary stance.

A veteran Iranian journalist has written, "It is not suspicious. It is opposition to the Islamic Republic. The people are clearly stating that they don't want to go back in time to the period when [Mousavi was] Prime Minister [in the 1980s]. Rather, they want to move forward, past the Islamic Republic. Mr. Mousavi, you should publicly state where you are positioned in all this."

This was a reply to to Mousavi's own reply to Jomhouri Eslami newspaper, in which he deftly distanced the Green movement from the burning and rather flimsily labelled the burning of Khomeini's poster as the work of agent provocateurs. Very interestingly, though, he omitted any reference to Khamenei's image, which you will recall was torn and burnt alongside Khomeini's in the YouTube footage. Mousavi's respect is only centred on the figure of the "Holy Imam", no mention of his successor whatsoever.

Iran Special: Kermit the Frog Re-Mixes “It’s Not Easy Being Green”
Iran: A Renewed Washington Love Affair With The Green Movement?
Iran’s Arrest of Majid Tavakoli: “Khamenei in Hejab/We Are All Majids”
Iran: The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli “His 16 Azar Speech on Video”
Iran: “The Military Will Stand with the Iranian People”? (with Audio)
The Latest from Iran (11 December): Ripples and then Ruptures?

1530 GMT: Worst "Analysis" of the Day. Congratulations to Abbas Barzegar for his conclusion pulled down from the sky, "Revolution Halted in Iran".

To do the injustices of this piece suitable justice would require a separate entry. Let's just say that Barzegar extrapolates from a suitable premise --- that the political movements do not simply consist of 2President Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei on one side versus Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Ayatollah Rafsanjani, and the entire Iranian nation on the other" --- to wandering and unsupported claims on the Green movement: "a dispersed core of intellectual and political elites with no clear agenda or ability to mobilise".

To put this caricature into perspective, let's just refer back to another Barzegar "analysis":

Ahmedinejad turned the election into a referendum on the very project of Iran's Islamic revolution. Their street chants yelled "Death to all those against the Supreme Leader" followed by traditional Shia rituals and elegies. It was no match for the high-spirited fun-loving youth of northern Tehran, [defeated as they] sang "Ahmedi-bye-bye, Ahmedi-bye-bye" or "ye hafte-do hafte, Mahmud hamum na-rafte" (One week, two weeks, Mahmoud hasn't taken a shower).

The date of the proclamation of that Ahmadinejad victory? 13 June.

1520 GMT: Sentences for Shiraz University Students. Nine have been handed down jail terms, ranging from six months (suspended) to six years, for participation in 13 Aban (4 November) protests.

1420 GMT: The Arrests of 16 Azar. A website has posted the names and status of 34 protesters arrested last Monday, and an Iranian activist has provided an English translation via Twitter.

1320 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Sane'i has added his denunciation of alleged regime disinformation with the burning of Imam Khomeini's picture:

When some reach a dead end, they don’t even spear Imam Khomeini’s dignity and take advantage of him for their own purpose. Oppressors set Imam Khomeini’s picture on fire [themselves], then claim that the students did that; while the students support Imam Khomeini and are in debt to him, and if they are protesting, it is based on Imam Khomeini’s saying, “The scale is the people’s vote."

1255 GMT: We Didn't Start the Fire (against Imam Khomeini). The reformist Islamic Association of Students of Tehran University has strongly condemned broadcasting of the “suspicious” footage of the tearing and burning of Imam Khomeini’s picture on state-run TV.

The students offered a religious analogy to condemn the regime's disinformation: they warned that the desecration of Imam Khomeini’s dignity to create new crisis in the society harks back to the enemies of Imam Ali, Shi’a Islam's first Imam, abuse of the dignity of Quran by holding the holy book up in the middle of war for their own benefit. As a result, a group of extremist and foolish individuals took the power over the people.

Officials of the Imam Khomeini Institute have also expressed their suspicions over state media's use of the alleged images.

1245 GMT: Today's Regime Attack. And it's Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami stepping up to the plate to take a swing at the opposition. Looks like he's hoping to hit the soft pitch that they're tearing down the system" out of the park: "What they are after is to have a thin layer remaining of the Islamic Republic."

Khatami is also building on this week's theme of the "burning" of the image of Imam Khomeini: state media is reporting that "hundreds" of theological students staged a rally in downtown Tehran to protest against the "insult", with similar events were also held in other Iranian cities.

1145 GMT: We've posted a new entry on Iranians leaving the country amidst the post-election conflict and possible Government measures against them.

0945 GMT: And Keeping the Door Open. Foreign Minister Mottaki added that Iran would be happy to attend another meeting with the "5+1" powers on uranium enrichment. He is doing so on the basis of the fuel "swap" idea, however, with the exchange of Iran's 3.5 percent uranium stock for a 20 percent enrichment supply taking place inside the country.

0925 GMT: Holding the Line. Speaking at a regional security conference in Bahrain, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki neither closed the door on nuclear negotiations nor offered concessions. He nodded towards the ongoing talks, "First I think we could just totally abandon the whole thing or we could propose something more moderate, a kind of middle way ... Iran has done that." At the same time, he emphasised that Iran wanted to ensure control of the process, "We need 10 to 15 nuclear plants to generate electricity in our country."

0915 GMT: Taking Iran's Money. In what may be the biggest seizure of Iranian assets abroad since the Islamic Revolution, it has emerged that more than $2 billion allegedly held on behalf of Tehran in Citigroup accounts was frozen last year in a secret order by a federal court in New York City.

While the case is not directly tied to the US Government's sanctions on Iran, the court action was supported by information provided by the US Treasury.

The frozen assets are in the center of a legal battle between Luxembourg's Clearstream Banking, the holder of the Citibank account, and the families of hundreds of U.S. Marines killed or injured in a 1983 attack on a Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.

0825 GMT: A quieter start (and later one, we needed the rest) to the day, after the intensity of Friday's speculation over the purported letter/tapes from military groups "standing with the opposition" and the growing opposition campaign linked to the regime's treatment of detained student leader Majid Tavakoli. The excitement and confusion even swept away the Government's threats against those within (Hashemi Rafsanjani) and those without (the opposition who supposedly burned the pictures of the Supreme Leader and Ayatollah Khomeini on 16 Azar).

Quieter, however, does not mean silent. The campaign sparked by Tavakoli, with the videos and pictures of "We Are All Majids, All in Hejab" has both mobilised protest in the run-up to Moharram and boosted the swing in international attention and support. The Guardian of London has picked up on the Facebook campaign. Even Fox News picked up the story on one of its blogs, and The New York Times has a follow-up today, with prominent US-based academic Hamid Dabashi joining the movement. The conclusion of the article brought a smile and a "Really? No kidding!": "Six months after the June 12 presidential election, the dispute over its outcome appears nowhere near at an end."

This morning the campaign continues. Josh Shahryar has posted "An Ode to Majid Tavakoli".

On the military front, I am afraid we have little so far to solve the mystery of whether the letter/audio from eight Iranian units is authentic. There is an outstanding debate amongst readers on our post yesterday, which raises possibilities but no resolutions so far. We'll keep watching; however, the most important issue for the moment may be whether people --- both those supporting the Government and those opposing it --- think the message is real. For if so, then the uncertainty caused is a victory in itself for the opposition.

Comments

[teez negah]

Samuel-bravo for shedding light on some truths but one thing to consider is that the arab majority-being sunni of course- regard the iranians/persians as Ajami-which is also a prejorative term. Many of the most hard-core elements in Iran are looked upon with utter disdain,bemusement and simple disgust in Cairo,Riyadh and Mecca. They are seen as crypto superstitious kaffirs.

The truth is for Iran to continue and survive it has to blend a new(21st century) national/shiite mix which can no longer use hamas/hezbollah as a conduit-the leadership has exhausted this avenue in terms of admiration from the arab street.

[Bozorg]

Khomenism is an unapologetically anti-Iranian ideology. It has set the country's economic, technological and social progress back by decades.

[Samuel]

Bozorg,

Then you would have no problem burning his picture right? If the answer is yes then you are at least 10 times more honest than Mousavi and company.

[shangool]

Heydar Moslehi`s statement:

"The uprising of the Iranian people resembles an “iceberg floating in the ocean with most of it still under water,” Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Intelligence Minister warned on Thursday, adding that the protestors seek to overthrow the entire regime. The regime would be condemned to defeat, he indicated, unless it succeeds in curbing the protests. The enemy is traversing the path of overthrowing the Islamic system with a certain timeframe in mind, and if we fail to save the society’s younger generations, who are the main targets of the soft war of the enemies, we will stand to lose the war.”

[Samuel]

teez negah,

There is certainly truth in what you say. Look at the Wahabbis with their fanatical anti-Shiite bigotry. Given the chance they would destroy all Shiite shrines in a second. Even as we speak the Saudis are killing Shiites in Yemen who pose absolutely no threat to them.

There is no doubt that nationalism as a general principle can be very beneficial. If not for vigorous Palestinian nationalism the Zionists would have exterminated the Palestinian nation long ago. Iranian nationalism certainly played a significant part in the opposition to the Shah especially after the Shah's concessions to the Americans. So yes an Iranian nationalism that fits in with Iran's Islamic and Shiite identity is something to be welcomed.

[Barry]

"Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind." --Albert Einstein.

It is just one of the many diseases that mankind can catch - Religion (especially institutionalized Religion) is another bad one. They have both led to the deaths and misery of countless people. Combine them and you have a very virulent form of disease.

Barry

[Martin]

In the past months Samuel has drawn our attention a couple of times to the Persian nationalism/chauvinism vis-a-vis 'the Arabs.' I would like to add a point that this Persian chauvinism can't exist without the Arab chauvinism vis-a-vis the Persian peoples which is much more farreaching.

We all know of the insistence of many 'Arabs' to call the Persian Gulf 'Arabian' and the baseless claims of the Emirates on three Iranian islands. Another wonderful example was the opening ceremony of the Asian Games in Qatar, where all the big names from the Islamic middle ages (who Samuel correctly says were almost never Arab but Persian) were staged as Arab. And the list goes on and on... If we can speak in these generalisations, which obviously you really like doing, I say to you that Iranian chauvinism is nothing else then an answer to Arabs being 'porru.' I never believed the notion of Arabs in this way but it made me wonder when I saw the example of a Palestinian woman, who's house had only electricity for one hour a day. The poor woman naturally got help from some organization and she now has a house with solar electricity 24/7. Her husband was diabetic so can you imagine how happy she was that her fridge could be cold all day long. But noooooooooo, she got really angry and was on the verge of crying, because the television didn't function properly on the new system.....

And that's what's the reason of Persian chauvinism vis-a-vis Arabs Samuel, because these people are never satisfied and always want more.

On another note, please enlighten yourself about Shia figh, it's development and Khomeinism because your use of 'an Islamic state' and other statements regarding to it shows you're not well-versed in it. To give you a hint, search for 'qad ja'altuhu 'alaykum hákimun' (maqbúla of 'Umar Hanzala) and try to think from there with an open mind. Good luck!

[kevina]

@Samuel:

While you have a point that those who diminish the Islamic nature in Iran show some chauvinism, you seem to think that the history of Iran starts with and is dominated by Islam. Historically, that's bunk. If you want Iran TODAY to be an Islamic state, hey, that's your choice. But pretending that Iran's nature has always been Islamic? That's silly.

Persian history/identity is much richer than that.

[Samuel]

Kevina,

Iran and Egypt (Muslims did not build the pyramids) for that matter have rich histories that predate Islam. I would never deny that and I never have.

The point I made earlier was that the greatest influence on Islam in the last 7 seven centuries has been by Persians and Turks not Arabs. Islam has not been an exclusively Arab religion for more than a 1000 years.

[Barry]

As a non-believer or atheist (whatever term you wish to use), I have always been amazed at how/why conquered peoples adhere to and actually embrace the religion of their conquerors. You can see the effect in all parts of the globe today. The South Americans embrace Roman Catholicism - even in Vietnam, a sizable proportion of the citizenry embrace Catholicism.

Perhaps it is just a matter of length of time . In 1492, Spain was able to throw off its Islamic conquerors, who had ruled Spain for around 700 years. Persia did not - and, now 1400 years later, it's people have embraced their conqueror's religion almost fully.

Barry

[Somebody]

There is definitely more religious identity in the Iranian people than many in the west would like to think, but that doesn't translate into support for tyranny. There have been polls done that indicate people in Iran do not accept that Islam and democracy are mutually exclusive.

That portion that does believe in the autocratic rule of a guardian jurist (however unpopular, however unqualified in terms of religious credentials, however willing to shed blood in order to maintain his rule) are numerically insignificant and are mostly benefiting from government payouts.

Anyway, anyone who thinks the Iranian government is a product of a 1400 year old religion doesn't understand how modern the organizational technique of the nation-state is. And so we have to ask, if innovation is allowed then why not the innovations that the people actually want?

[Somebody]

Barry, speaking of mass conversion, you might find this interesting:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safavid_dynasty#Shia_Islam_as_the_state_religion

[Samuel]

Martin,

I hope you realize that your extrapolating from the words of one Palestinian woman to conclude that "these people are never satisfied and always want more"
makes you sound very superficial and prejudiced. In any event I think the issue of Sunni Arab bigotry is primarily one limited to wahabbists and salafists in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. To be sure the Al Queda types think extremely badly about Shiites and are quite content to murder us without much thinking. Note that this is true of Pakistanis or Taliban Pashtuns who follow such ideologies and who are not even Arabs.

I am quite familiar thank you with the concept of an Islamic state as a historical concept among both Sunnis and Shiites as later developed in the Usuli School and in the work of Ayatollah Naraqi and, of course, of the Ayatollah Khomeini.

[Bill Davit]

Samuel,

You may be surprised but I don't think your statement on Iranian nationalism is propoganda. I have seen it but I don't think it is the predominant movement within the greens. If it had been I think the regime would have been much more violent and in genral succesful with it's crack down. After all the regime tried the Khomeini picture burning but even that appears to have backfired on them. And yes the regime has done a better job not killing people lately--but that statement in it self is not something to be proud of(sort of akin the hollow statements out of Iraq that civilian deaths are on the decline--progress we should be proud of--not.) On the point of shelving Sharia would it be correct to state that this is a form of Taqqiya? While I understand Taqqiya the issue I have with it is it's use in conjunction with the centralization of power in Iran. This essentially says that this "SL" can do what he wants if he or the system feels threatned regardless of the will of the people. Your simply at the whims of what one person believes and in Iran the state gives him the power to lie to protect those beliefs! Toxic mix I might say! I'm sorry but in today's world I do see how that ever equates into justice for all. This is all quite funny with Ahmandinejad's continually bleats on and on about how the UN needs to be more democratic(which it does.) Gee what would he do once the SL ruled over all--first act abolish the UN! I could see the first address to the world by Ahmandinejad: "Me and the SL are right and we know what is best for you so just follow along like good sheep." Question from the former disbanded UN: "Why?" Answer: "God choose us so don't question me" "guards come take this enemy of god away." Real example of this in the works--Ahmadinejad funds a clinic in Boliva and demands the 100% Christian nurses staff to wear Hijabs--true story from you can't make this stuff up--just google it!

I liked your comment about the advancement of Islam in Persia. I would also attach to it advancement in general. As your aware those of the Shia faith did not close the gates of ijtihad and to a lesser degree did not abandon Greek thought. The fact remains the majority of the greatest scholars that came out of Islam happened to be Persian. That has something to do with proximity to Europe but to a larger degree that Persians/Shia didn't close their eyes to world like much of the Sunni world did. This may sound racist but I have read a number of reports that have clearly said of those Muslims who immigrate to another land the most succesful are the Iranians. They are the one most likely to blend in with society and become part of it instead of seperating themselves. I have seen it here in the states. Not saying this is true for all but just that facts seem to show those of the Shia faith tend to integrate better. Ironically the regime in Iran espouses much we vs them propoganda but despite all this all I mentioned above is still true to this very day. I have to admit I was actually surprised at first but the more I thought on it and delved into the Shia faith I was able to see why. Maybe the regime needs to go back and revist their faith to answer some of the issues with the unrest.

Thx
Bill

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