Negotiations with Syria: The Battle Begins

Unnoticed by many, a complicated dance over talks with Syria --- on a settlement with Israel, on its position vis-a-vis Lebanon, and on its relations with Iran and Hezbollah --- is beginning. For a mix of reasons, some good (finally defusing some of the tension between Tel Aviv and Damascus), some not so good (the mistaken belief that this will mean the isolation of Tehran in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf), serious talks for the first time in almost a decade appear imminent.

Still, Washington firebrands who dreamed of Syrian regime change during the Dubya Years aren't going down without a fight.

The excellent Joshua Landis has this analysis:

Syria is the Only Game in Town

Syria is the only game in town for those wishing to advance peace between Arabs and Israel. This has the Jewish right apoplectic. Danielle Pletka, who worked under John Bolton in the State Department, tries sarcasm and insults in her "The Syrian Strategy" to embarrass those who would advance this strategy.

Barry Rubin, publisher of MERIA journal and author of The Truth About Syria gathered several Washington Institute types such as Patrick Clawson and David Schenker and other likeminded policy types to tell Americans that they are foolish to negotiate with Syria and Iran. Equally foolish is to try to make peace between Arabs and Jews or to withdraw from Iraq anytime soon. Rubin knowingly asserts that Obama’s “belief, that [America] can make friends with Iran and Syria, soothe grievances that have caused Islamism and terrorism, and solve the Arab-Israeli conflict …. is a miscalculation about the Middle East.”

Americans perennially make the mistake of viewing the Middle East “in Western terms,” Rubin informs us, which leads “to frustration and even disaster.” Why? Because “You have to inspire fear in your enemies.” “Unfortunately, the change they want means wiping other states off the map.”

This “good versus evil” world view is repeated by the other participants of this round table, who seem to be nodding at each other in their desire to sound the toxin of existential extinction should the new administration lift its foot off the throat of its Arab and Persian enemies. The US’s only choice is to keep its many enemies in the region in a state of abject fear.

David Schenker explains that Bush viewed Bashar al-Assad as “basically as irredeemable.” Schenker basically agrees. He worries that ”Obama appears to believe that Syria can play a more productive role in the region.” To Schenker’s chagrin, even “Dennis Ross, himself who is being mentioned as the possible Middle East coordinator has written that Assad should be tested.” Dennis Ross is The Washington Institute’s counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow. David Schenker is a senior fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute.

Schenker concedes that if Syria were to flip, and cut its relations with Iran and “jettison Hizballah and Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups and move into the Western camp,” it would be a good thing. Like, Barry Rubin, Schenker clearly does not expect Syria to do any such thing. To guard against the Golan being given away for what he seems to believe will be nothing, Schenker will have to police the Obama administration and encourage it to make many up front demands for change.

He and his colleagues will work assiduously to hang all kinds of Christmas balls and bobbles on the engagement tree, such that it is hard to imagine any progress or deal being struck. In order to protect her flank from such criticism, Israel’s foreign minister Livni reassured Israelis that she would be tough and not accept a “humus” peace. She said,

“What is important to us is not a peace of opening embassies and eating Humus in Damascus, but the halting of arms smuggling through Syria to Hezbollah, their strong ties to Iran and their endless support of terrorist organizations such as Hamas,” said the foreign minister.

Olmert has defended his drive to continue negotiations:

Referring to the ongoing indirect talks, Olmert said “the talks with Syria were thorough and important. Removing Syria from the radical axis is one of Israel’s top priorities.”"Tough sacrifices will be required,” Olmert said, “but the prevention of lost lives is worth it. Syria is not interested in belonging to the axis of evil and wants to forge ties with the U.S.”

For his part, Bashar al-Assad also has demands and wants to tamp down expectations that he flip. He wants Israelis to agree on the exact 1967 Golan borders so that the two sides will not get stuck in Geneva as they did in 2000 with very different expectations about borders. Assad also told European diplomats that he isn’t responsible for restraining Hezbollah, and won’t be “Israel’s bodyguard.”

Syrian President Bashar Assad has told a number of European foreign ministers and senior diplomats this month that he would not lift a finger to restrain Hezbollah’s arming in Lebanon. “I am not Israel’s bodyguard,” he reportedly said…. On the one hand, the officials said their impression was that the Syrian president was serious about negotiations, but that Assad’s positions remained uncompromising.

The source said Assad told the Europeans that Syria was willing to take significant steps in talks with Israel only after an Israeli declaration that it would withdraw from the entire Golan Heights.

Assad refuses to make concessions before he gets guarantees about withdrawal. Israel will also refuse to make concessions until it has guarantees.

More On Those Drones

Danger Room reports that Israeli-made Heron drones will soon be seeing service in Afghanistan- with the Canadian military:

The Canadian Air Wing based at Kandahar Airfield just received its first Heron unmanned aerial vehicle. The drones -- built by Israel Aerospace Industries -- will prowl the skies over southern Afghanistan, where Canadian troops have been locked in particularly intense combat with a resurgent Taliban.

More here.

(Previously on Enduring America: Russian MiGs to Lebanon? And Israeli UAVs to Russia?)

Russian MiGs to Lebanon? And Israeli UAVs to Russia?

Reader UJ points out two stories linking Russia and the Middle East this week:

1. Russia appears to have offered Lebanon 10 MiG-29 'Fulcrum' fighter jets. While this craft dates back to the 1970s, it would be a significant improvement on "Lebanon’s depleted and antiquated fixed wing fleet, which today is comprised of some five 1950s-era Hunter Hawker aircraft."


2. Russia is, in turn, in the market for Israeli UAVs.

What's going on? It's surprising that the US and Israel haven't made more fuss about Lebanon's acquisition of Russian MiGs, but our take is that with all eyes on isolating Iran the strategy may be to just let this one be. Furthermore, as the Counterterrorism Blog points out, "it’s hard to imagine how the LAF would finance the maintenance of the Russian aircraft." As for the UAV sale? I can't imagine the US allowing it, but Counterterrorism Blog (in the same piece) is positing that "the Israelis are hoping the UAV sales provide some leverage in helping to convince the Russians to not sell advanced SA-20 anti-aircraft weapons to Iran." Complicated enough?

[Photo via Wikimedia]

Gaza Update: Israel Talks Tough As Crisis Looms

As we feared yesterday, the Israel-Gaza situation has been framed as a military standoff between rocket attacks into southern Israel and Israeli military incursions into Gaza. At least 20 rockets were fired into southern Israel, while two Israeli air raids.

There has been a worrying escalation of rhetoric from Israel, especially from the two candidates --- Tzipi Lvini and Benyamin Netanyahu --- vying to replace Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Olmert has been cautious, saying, "A responsible government doesn't rush into battle, neither does it shy away"; however, both Lvini and Netanyahu have pledged to "topple the Hamas rule in Gaza".



A large-scale Israeli offensive is unlikely during the electoral campaign; instead, there will be a series of bombings and targeted assassinations as the rocket attacks continue. In effect, this is a situation of deadly stalemate.

Deadly in economic as well as military terms. The latest news from Gaza is the World Bank's warning of a shortage of currency, which in turn will bring the economy to a standstill.

Gaza Update: It's the Economy, Stupid....

For me, the second most important story on Thursday about Gaza was the breakdown of the truce between Hamas and the Israeli military.

The most important --- although I suspect you may not have seen it --- was this: "UN agency suspends Gaza food aid". The combination of the Israeli blockade and rocket fire meant that stocks of wheat flour ran out, cutting off assistance to the 20,000 people per day who rely on the agency. (A total of 750,000 in Gaza are dependent on food aid.)

Dig a bit deeper, and the following hard-core facts --- which of course are all too evident to those in Gaza --- emerge. Unemployment is now at 49 percent, up from 32 percent a year ago. Most people are without power for up to 16 hours a day, Many residents of Gaza City are without power for up to 16 hours a day, and half receive water (80 percent of which is substandard) only once a week for a few hours, the report said. A UN report calls the situation "a human dignity crisis".

A couple of British and American newspapers, after their eye-catching headlines on the truce breakdown and "rocket attacks" did deign to report that economic and social news. The New York Times, for example, wrote:

Hamas officials say it was their understanding at the time that two weeks after the June 19 accord took effect Israel would open the crossings and allow the transfer of goods that had been banned or restricted after June 2007.

However, deliveries increased only from 70 to 90 truckloads a day, compared with 500 to 600 before June 2007. The outcome? Ameera Ahmed, a Gaza resident who struggles to find even the formula needed for her six-month-old daughter, writes in The Observer:

During the months of the blockade, everything in my life has changed. Before, I would wake up and hope that tomorrow would be better than today. But it never happened. The reason is simple. It is because I live in Gaza, where all dreams and hope vanish because of the situation we live in.

Of course, you can make the snap response that Ahmed and all the other Gazans struggling to make it day-to-day are victims of both the Israeli blockade and the rocket fire from Gaza that is cited as justification for the restrictions. But doing so, you are into a circular argument that cannot be broken, ensuring that this dance of destruction and deprivation is perpetual.

It might be more instructive to ask: will the Israeli blockade really turn the population against Hamas, leading to an effective coup d'etat? Even if that occurred, would it produce the pliant Gazan public that will accept Tel Aviv's conditions for a political settlement? Or is it more likely that a citizenry subjected to this punishment will see its oppressor as Israel, thus stocking up more anger and more resentment for yet more conflict?

There is a way out, in other words, but no one seems willing to put forth the notion of talks between Hamas and the Israeli Government. Instead, we can settle for the farce of an American President reducing Gaza to invisibility as he meets the head of the Palestinian (West Bank) Authority and declares, "People must recognise that we have made a good deal of progress."