Gaza Update (5 a.m. Israel; 10 p.m. Eastern US): This is "All-Out War"

Latest Updates: Gaza: This is an (Israeli) War of Choice
and Gaza: The Futility of the Israeli War

Israel's bombardment of Gaza has entered a fourth day, with ministerial offices targets and the Islamic University hit again. At least 350 Palestinians have been killed, and hospitals are overwhelmed with casualties. Four Israelis have been killed by rocket fire.

The UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-Moon, has now called for a cease-fire. Perhaps most significantly, at least for US-European relations, the British Government is distancing itself from Washington and calling for a cessation of hostilities.

Oh, Here's Another Crisis You Might Want To Notice: Somalia

Breaking News: Jeffrey Gettleman has a follow-up piece in The New York Times tomorrow promoting Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, "a well-respected, moderate Islamic cleric", as Ahmed's successor.

Remember the Government in Somalia?


Well, it no longer exists.

President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed resigned Monday, the final confirmation that he had little or no effective authority. There is no prospective replacement. Given Ahmed's repeated attempts to dismiss Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein this month, it is uncertain if there is even an operating central Government in Moghadishu. For the moment, the call is for "parliamentary unity".

Jeffrey Gettleman in The New York Times reported Monday on the emergence of fighting between "Islamist" factions, in particular between a new movement Ahlu-Sunna Wal-Jama and the Shabab, "one of Somalia's most militant groups".

That story may have significance, however, as a tip-off to Washington's response to Ahmed's downfall. Having toppled the Islamic Courts government in 2006 but failed to get stability, the US Government --- through the State Department and/or the incoming Obama Administration --- may be envisaging an "acceptable" Islamist leadership. No doubt that leadership will be expected to accept the emerging US oversight of the region through the new African Command.

Who that leadership will be and, more importantly, how they will take power in Mogadishu is just a bit unclear, however. So once again it seems that the US has ideas for how a country should be "reshaped" with little regard for the political and social complexities.

A Farewell Song for George Bush: "No One Likes Us --- Don't Know Why"

I suspect a lot of y'all knew this one was coming, so with three weeks to go before Goodbye to George, no need to hold back any longer:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGO42gvCSPI&feature=related[/youtube]

See all the Farewell Song contest entrants

Gaza: OK, So What's the Endgame?

As the death toll climbs above 300 and Israel threatens the next step of a ground invasion of Gaza, Juan Cole puts the point concisely:

What I can't understand is the end game here. The Israelis have pledged to continue their siege of the civilians of Gaza, and have threatened to resume assassinating Hamas political leaders, along with the bombardment....Do the Israelis expect the population at some point to turn against Hamas, blaming it for the blockade and the bombardment? But by destroying what was left of the Gaza middle class, surely they a throwing people into the arms of Hamas.

Rhetorically, the Israeli Government is pressing ahead, with Defense Minister Ehud Barak telling the Knesset, Israel's Parliament, "This is an all-out war against Hamas and its branches." This has been backed up by a Cabinet call-up of 7000 reservists, a step which should be approved by the Knesset on Monday.

Airstrikes continue, with the Hamas Interior Ministry amongst the latest targets. But as it becomes clear that, for all the destruction, the political situation in Gaza has not changed --- Hamas is still in control --- Israel faces its next decision. How many of the troops and infantry now massing on the border are sent across?

Ethan Bronner inadvertently captures the difficulty in a rather confused piece in The New York Times. He parrots the official but rather misleading line of "Israeli military commanders" that "they did not intend to reoccupy the coastal strip of 1.5 million Palestinians or to overthrow the Hamas government there". The aim is “to stop the firing against our civilians in the south and shape a different and new security situation there.”

Yet Bronner opens his piece with the assertion that the broader Israel objective is "to expunge the ghost of its flawed 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and re-establish Israeli deterrence".

A moment's reflection would highlight the contradiction, and thus the problem, for Israel. The 2006 war was not one of "deterrence". It was an attempt to shatter Hezbollah as an effective political and military force.

That attempt failed because, after Israel had inflicted all its military might in Lebanon, Hezbollah still remained, killing Israeli forces and avoiding its final destruction. More importantly, the organisation was politically stronger, a boost which means that today it is a key player in the future of the country.

So, to return to Juan Cole, who also notes the 2006 precedent of Israel bolstering, rather than breaking, its enemies:

By refusing to negotiate with Hamas, Israel and the United States leave only a military option on the table. The military option isn't going to resolve the problem by itself.

Meanwhile, the ripples of Gaza spread across the Middle East. The inaction of Arab Governments is prompting large demonstrations by their populations, criticising not only Israel and the United States but their own political leaders.

Gaza Update (3 a.m. Israel/Palestine, 10 p.m. Eastern US): Pressing the Bombardment

As the Israeli assault enters its third day, the Israeli Defense Forces are widening their range of targets, in effect decimating the Gazan infrastructure, with more than 40 airstrikes on Sunday.

As the death toll neared 300, sites hit included the Islamic University in Gaza City, a government compound, the office of Gazan leader Ismail Haniya, the Beit Hanoun City Hall, and a warehouse supplying medicines. The Israelis also bombarded tunnels used to bring in goods from Egypt, tightening the economic blockade on Gaza, and hospitals are struggling to cope with the number of wounded.



The Israelis claim that more than 110 rockets were fired into southern Israel since Saturday morning, killing one man.

The United States maintained its forthright support of the Israeli operation on Sunday. Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, asserted, "Israel has the right to self-defense and nothing in this press statement should be read as anything but that."