UPDATED Iran Special: Grenade Attack on Ahmadinejad?

UPDATE 5 August: President Ahmadinejad has put out the official line for the Islamic Republic News Agency: "Yesterday, during the cabinet's trip to Hamadan Province, someone threw a firecracker in front of the government motorcade out of joy and excitement. This was not [a] newsworthy [incident], but the enemies spread reports that Ahmadinejad has been transferred to an undisclosed location after surviving an assassination attempt. This is while immediately afterwards I delivered a speech in Hamadan Stadium and in front of thousands of people.”

[Editor's Note: No one to my knowledge ever stated "Ahmadinejad has been transferred to an undisclosed location".]

A stranger declaration from Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi with the "good news" from the incident, "We discovered Israel's sedition in the region," as well as discovering 8,800 antiquities from smugglers.

UPDATE 2000 GMT: Summary of the Day. Islamic Republic News Agency, late to the story of the "greeting" of the President, made up for it with this explanation: "A young boy threw a firecracker at motorcade of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to celebrate his arrival in Hamadan causing embarrassment....Iranian youth during special ceremonies such as New Year festivals or football matches use firecrackers as sign of jubilation."

How can you top that coverage? Possibly by taking it to the international front. From Andy Borowitz:



(Hat tip to Robert Mackey at The Lede)

UPDATE 1655 GMT: Let's Try This Version. And here comes yet another narrative of What Really Happened....

Mehr News (also quoted in Aftab News) says a handmade bomb exploded in Hamedan's Pasteur Street, at a long distance from AN's car, as people were greeting him. No one was injured and there was only smoke from the device. Some suspects were arrested.

UPDATE 1640 GMT: Lara Setrakian of ABC News has just put out a round-up on the grenade/firecracker assassination/celebration incident. I spoke with her throughout the day to try and interpret developments, and she has kindly put out my initial thoughts, which are on the lines of "the significance here is not the physical attack, if that is what this was, but the political aftermath":

Khabar [Online, which broke the story in Iran and is connected with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani] has been increasingly critical of the government over the past few months. They're more likely to put the incident out than state media.

An attack certainly could be connected to the post-election tension. It could have important political significance given the divisions within the ruling establishment. And in the public eye it makes Ahmedinejad look weak.

UPDATE 1630 GMT: Grenade or Firecracker? An EA correspondent joins the debate, responding to Mr Verde's assessment (1330 GMT) over what happened in Hamedan and what Iran's official media reported:

I think that "narenjak" is best translated, as Associated Press and others did, as grenade. There has been a concerted effort to remove the term from all news items [in Iranian media], Fars being forced to change it from "narenjak" to "tarraqeh", which is the common term for firecracker. So while Verde is correct in stating that narenjak can also mean firecracker, the actual meaning from this morning has been grenade, which is why the state media are so keen on getting rid of it everywhere.

UPDATE 1330 GMT: Khabar Online, which was the first outlet inside Iran to report the explosion, is pulling back on its original claim of a "grenade". Khabar now defers to the statement of the President's office, given to Agence France Presse (see 1024 GMT), that the cause was a firecracker of welcome.

(Mr Verde adds this: The original Khabar item talked about the explosion of “nirenjak-e dasti”, which could mean two things: A) either a “hand grenade” or B) a form of homemade firecracker common in Iran, called "narenjak" --- which in English could mean grenade--- that is thrown against hard surfaces to make a lot of noise during festivals like Chaharshanbeh Souri.)

UPDATE 1140 GMT: An EA correspondent checks in: "Good old Mahmoud isn't having a good day. Youtube footage from today's speech in Hamadan shows him saying that 'England is an island from West Africa'."

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDaYAuusXGc[/youtube]

UPDATE 1024 GMT: The regime line is now set. Iranian state outlet Al-Alam, like Fars, is saying that the explosion was actually a firecracker as part of celebrations over the President's arrival, and Ahmadinejad's staff are putting out that story to foreign media such as Agence France Presse.

The problem for this narrative is that the President's office initially told two outlets --- Al-Arabiya and Reuters --- that the incident was an "attack".

 

UPDATE 1015 GMT: Fars News has now recognised the incident, albeit as the explosion of a "homemade firecracker" as crowds welcomed Ahmaidinejad.

UPDATE 0925 GMT: Press TV has broken its silence: "An informed source in Iran's presidential office has rejected as false the reports of grenade attack on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad", denying the claims of "foreign news sources". (There is no reference to Khabar Online, which has carried the story in Iran. The reformist Parleman News is also running Khabar's account, as is the conservative Aftab News.)

Al Arabiya's initial report had claimed "the Iranian Presidency confirmed the attack".

UPDATE 0910 GMT: Al Arabiya television is calling the incident a "bomb" and an "assassination attempt", injuring a number of people. It claims "the Iranian presidency confirmed the attack".

According to Al Arabiya, the explosion hit a car carrying journalists and presidential staff before Ahmadinejad addressed a crowd (which makes Iran state media reports on the speech, with no mention of the attack, even more curious), and the assailant was arrested on the spot.

 

Ahmadinejad appeared on live Iranian television at a sports stadium. He made no mention of any attack.

----

Khabar Online is reporting that a grenade exploded near Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's motorcade as the President visited Hamedan in western Iran, 250 miles southwest of Tehran. The explosion occurred between the airport and the site of the President's speech, although it is unclear if the incident occurred before or after the appearance

There are no reports of casualties.

Press TV has referred to Ahmadinejad's speech but has not mentioned the explosion. IRNA is summarising the presentation --- "Iran will not fall prey to the poison of hypocrites" --- but also has no reference to an attack.

Lebanon-Israel Update: UN Support for West Jerusalem; Washington's Dilemma over Beirut

On Wednesday, a Lebanese source told the Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar that the Lebanese Army was first to open fire in Tuesday's clash with Israel Defense Forces. However, the source also stated that it was their right "to defend Lebanon's sovereignty", implying that Israeli soldiers were on the Lebanese side of the borderline.

Israel, in an official letter of complaint to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, asserted that IDF soldiers did not cross the border. An official with the United Nations peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, later said that the Israeli units were in their territory, and Milos Strugar, UNIFIL's senior political advisor, added that UN deals "with complaints on provocations of Lebanese soldiers against IDF units on a daily basis".

Meanwhile, the US Government finds itself caught between its ally Israel and the need to bolster Saad Hariri's "moderate" government and a Lebanese army which is to be distinguished from Hezbollah militants.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel’s Lebanon Message, Hezbollah’s Response, Livni Challenges Netanyahu

On Tuesday,Washinigton's "we don't want to see this happen again" response was criticised by West Jerusalem as "neutral". The next day, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said that the firing by Lebanese armed forces on Israeli troops was "totally unjustified and unwarranted" while calling on both sides to show restraint and urging the United Nations to oversee a calming of the crisis:

We appreciate the work of the United Nations both in the meeting today and creating the cease-fire yesterday. We're going to be working intensively to see that tensions along this border are eased.

However, the Obama Administration might have some friction from Congress over military aid to Lebanon. For 2010, the US approved $100 million in assistance to the Lebanese military, as well as $109 million in economic aid and $20 million in anti-narcotics funds. The amount of aid for 2011 is approximately the same.

Talking to The Jerusalem Post, Florida Representative Ron Klei said "the continued support of the Lebanese Army" will "come up in conversations in the Congress". Klei added:

If in fact it’s factually shown that this was a Lebanese government authorized action, I think a lot of members would be very concerned about continuing to provide military support to Lebanon. I certainly would be.

However, even Klei admitted that hostility to Lebanon might be overtaken by the need to maintain a pro-American government in Beirut: 

It doesn’t mean there’s going to be a certain reduction, because unfortunately for that region it’s the lesser of two evils. We’d much rather work with the army than Hezbollah.

Iran Feature: Free Speech (and Some Laughs) in the Theatre (Tehran Bureau)

"A Correspondent" writes for Tehran Bureau:

In Iran, where all major opposition newspapers have been closed, where a small public gathering can lead to arrest, there remain few avenues of free speech. Of those few, one of the most accessible is the theater.

During my summer in Tehran, I was invited to see a play, Jazeereh Eshgh (Love Island), written by Hamid Reza Sa'atchi. On the basis of its title, I anticipated a cheesy romance -- even more so when the lights went down and a voice rose up, reminiscent in tone of Michael Buffer, the "Let's get ready to rumble" guy. The protagonist, played by Mahmood Reza Esmaili, loudly asked the crowd to make some noise and I watched the audience of all ages cheer and clap on command. Despite the over-the-top start, I was pleasantly surprised to watch a refreshing play filled with social and political satire of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

In one scene, a man stands with arms outstretched, as if reading a newspaper. A woman walks by and asks him what he's doing.

He replies, "What does it look like I'm doing? I'm reading a newspaper."

"So why isn't there anything in your hands?"

"Well, they've all been closed, so I'm forced to read them like this!"

Another scene depicts a woman who asks the main character a question for which the answer is "Two." At first he holds out his index and middle finger, making what could be taken for a peace sign -- in Iran, however, that gesture is the V-for-victory sign, made popular last summer by the Green Movement. The man, realizing his faux pas, says, "You can't even show the number two like that any more!" He offers some comical alternatives, most memorably raising his thumbs, which in Iran means "Up yours."

The main character jokes about the "parasite" or static emitted by the Iranian government that jams popular satellite TV channels such as BBC Persian, VOA, and Farsi 1. He mocks the new hejab culture created by the ingenious way Iranian women sexily wear their head scarves -- hair poofed up at the top and tucked behind their ears -- accompanying a meticulously drawn-on face. He even cracks jokes about Ahmadinejad.

Read rest of article....

Iraq and Iran: Has Ayatollah Sistani Challenged the Supreme Leader's Authority? (Nafisi)

Days after Iran's Supreme Leader had released, retracted, and then re-released his "I am the Rule of the Prophet" declaration, the leading Shi'a cleric in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, issued his own fatwa.



The contrast between the Khamenei and Sistani approaches to velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical supremacy) is stark. Now for the political question: was the Sistani pronouncement solely, or at least primarily, fostered by Iraqi developments or is it a response to the Supreme Leader's fatwa?

Rasool Nafisi, who has offered this analysis of Sistani's move, answers, "The fatwa was possibly prompted by the fatwa of Khamenei":

Ayatollah Sistani, in an important fatwa, has clarified his position on velayat faghih. Answering three questions on the function and role of velayat faghih, the ayatollah asserts the general Shiite ulama's
understanding of the function of velayat: it is for "omoor hessbieh" meaning to act as the caretaker of orphans, etc.

But for "omoor aammah" , meaning the general affairs of society including the political sphere, Sistani clearly says that for a vali to rule as such he needs "being accepted and popular (maghbool) by the majority of believers" as one of the main conditions.

In other words, Sistani believes that velayat has no divine origins, and the vali can only act as a ruler if his role is accepted by the majority. This fatwa is in contrast to the new wave of ideological assertions by [Iran's Ayatollah] Mesbah Yazdi and his cohorts who are hard at work to prove the divine origins of vali, and that he is only "discovered" (kashf) by the people, [for] he is already appointed by the Imam in Occultation.

Sistani's fatwa in a way annuls Ayatollah Khamenei's fatwa issued a couple of weeks ago where he clearly said he substitutes [for] the prophet and Imams and people should obey his political statements verbatim. Considering the vast unpopularity of Khamenei, it seems that the condition of "being accepted and popular among the believers" does not quite apply here.

The Latest from Iran (4 August): The President and The Plots

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farah Vazham, a female protestor detained during the Ashura demonstrations in December, has been sentenced to 15 years on charges of affiliation to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO).

1755 GMT: Deportation Update. Mission Free Iran reports that the threat to deport Iranian activist Jamal Saberi from Japan has been lifted.

NEW Iran Breaking: Grenade Attack on Ahmadinejad?
NEW Iran Feature: The Activism of the Women’s Movement (Mouri)
Iran Analysis: Saharkhiz & Abtahi Dent the Government’s “Fear Factor” (Shahryar)
Iran Feature: Did Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Reveal the Bomb?
The Latest from Iran (3 August): Explosive Words

1705 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran's inflation rate dropped to 9.1% in the month to 22 July, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Mahmoud Bahmani, has said. The previous month's official rate was 9.4%.

1700 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Esmail Sahabeh, a member of the reformist, Islamic Participation Front, has been sentenced to 4 1/2 years in prison.

Judge Salavati, in charge of the case, was absent during the hearing and handed down the ruling without hearing Sahabeh’s defence.

Sahabeh was arrested during a religious ceremony held in support of political prisoners in October 2009. He was released on bail after two months in prison.

1500 GMT: The Pressure on the Supreme Leader. Geneive Abdo and Arash Aramesh write in The New York Times of "The Widening Rift Among Iran's Clerics". Their provocative conclusion:

Khamenei’s success is the result of his ability to forge alliances with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, some clerics, and traditional conservatives. Although his ties to hard-liners and the Revolutionary Guards may seem stronger today, he still needs the support of the clerical establishment.

Khamenei’s idea of the Islamic Republic is certainly less republican and not necessarily more Islamic. With republican institutions in Tehran weakened and his religious authority challenged in Qum, the future of the Islamic Republic and the fate of velayat-e-faqih remain uncertain.

1450 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The office of the Islamic Women's Sports Federation, headed by Hashemi Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh Hashemi, has been closed, purportedly because of lack of payments from Iran's Olympics Committee.

1410 GMT: An explosion at a petrochemical plant has killed five people at Asalouyeh in southern Iran. The new phase of the plant, which was the largest producer of ammonia in the region, was opened only a week ago in a ceremony with President Ahmadinejad.

1355 GMT: Crime and Punishment. The former head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Mohammad Jafar Behdad, has been sentenced to 7 months for slandering the Larijani brothers and Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1350 GMT: Economy Watch. Aftab News claims that, over the past five years, prices have risen 220%.

1200 GMT: Parliament v. Government. A buffet of challenges from the Majlis....

Hojatoleslam Ali Asghari, the Parliamentary liaison with Strategic Studies Center, criticises "economic stalemate" with "political unrest and radicalism" leading to sanctions and a weakening Majlis leading to "dictatorship".

MP Ali Akbar Oulia declares that the Majlis will not allow the Government to continue its refusal to implement laws, as the delay is harmful to the Iranian people and continues the "chaos" in the country.

Reformist MP Nasrullah Torabi chides the "low language" of Government officials for giving the impression that all Iranian representatives are also "low".

Reformist MP Mohammad Reza Khabbaz claims that some Iranians are now spending three-quarters of their income for rent.

"Hardline" MP Ezzatollah Youssefian Mola says Iran's central bank, Bank Markazi, cannot be trusted as it does not present real data on cases of financial corruption.

1145 GMT: Someone's Looking for Trouble. Ahmadinejad chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, according to Aftab News, has pronounced, "From now on we present the world the way and principles (maktab) of Iran, not of Islam."

So who is making mischief here: Rahim-Mashai or Aftab?

1130 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert: Member of Parliament Abdollah Kaabi has insisted that sanctions will lead to Iran's self-sufficiency in producing energy.

1125 GMT: The Campaign of the Politician Prisoners (Rafsanjani Annex). A twist in the story of the letter to the Supreme Leader from Hamzeh Karami, a former political prisoner alleging abuse (see 0635 GMT)....

Rah-e-Sabz claims former President Hashemi Rafsanjani took the letter to Ayatollah Khamenei, insisting on delivering it directly to the Supreme Leader.

1122 GMT: OK, I Was Wrong. Just to admit the error in my assertion (0825 GMT) that the "Iran Has 4 S-300 Missiles" would be the big story in the non-Iranian media today.

1109 GMT: The Campaign Against Jannati. More from Mr Verde on the growing movement against the head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, fed by his claims that opposition leaders were paid $1 billion for causing trouble last year and offered a further $50 billion by the US and Saudi Arabia to overthrow the regime.... are not just causing problems for him, but are embroiling the Supreme Leader too.

Kalemeh reports that Rasool Montajebnia, a cleric who was close to Ayatollah Khomeini and a founding member of Mehdi Karroubi’s Etemade Melli party, has written that the Supreme Leader should now step in and address Jannati's accusation with “precision, transparency and decisiveness” so that “everyone could know if these allegations are true or lies”.

Mr Verde notes:

The timing of Jannati's claims, so soon after his reappointment to the Guardian Council, is allowing the reformists to push for the Supreme Leader's intervention. If Jannati is misinformed to such an extent, is lying, or is incapable of thinking straight, then Ayatollah Khamenei has made an enormous mistake by reappointing him to the Council. This wouldmean that Khamenei’s judgment cannot be trusted, which in turn could become a reason for him being unfit to hold the position of Supreme Leader.

And another “minor” point: if Jannati’s recent claims about the payments are false, then how can one accept that the Guardian Council  was correct in “verifying” Ahmadinejad’s disputed re-election last year?

Making these claims, Jannati was probably providing excuses for the actions of the regime over the past year. Instead he seems to have provided a good opportunity for attacks on Khamenei. This is another example of remarks or events spiralling out of control.

1105 GMT: Mousavi Watch. On the eve of Journalists Day, Mir Hossein Mousavi has met with editors, reporters, and families of imprisoned journalists. Mousavi said:

Our voice should reach our imprisoned friends who are on hunger strike to gain their very basic rights;,so that they know that the Green Movement, freedom-seekers, and all layers of the nation are supporting them to achieve their rightful demands....

The great number of imprisoned journalists proves the legitimacy of the path that the Green Movement has chosen, because the knowledgeable, wise, and justice-seeking members of the society are in prison due to their protest against the re-eruption of tyranny.

1040 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims Iranian security forces have attacked families of political prisoners who are on hunger strike. The families were demonstrating in front of the office of Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi (see 0800 GMT).

1035 GMT: The Missing Lawyer. The United Nations' refugee agency has confirmed human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei is in Turkey.

Mostafaei, whose clients include Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery, has been in hiding after Iranian security forces tried to detain him. His wife and brother-in-law are in prison.

1030 GMT: We have been busy with a separate entry following this morning's story of a possible attack on President Ahmadinejad's motorcade in Hamedan in western Iran.

0845 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detained teacher Rasoul Baddaghi has been sentenced to six years in prison.

0830 GMT: We have posted a feature, "The Activism of the Women's Movement".

0825 GMT: Today's Tough Talk. Expect this story to take over in non-Iranian press today....

Fars News is claiming that Iran has obtained four S-300 surface-to-air missiles despite Russia's refusal to deliver them to Tehran. The agency claims two came from Belarus and two from an unspecified source.

There has been no immediate official confirmation of the report.

Russia signed a contract in 2007 to sell S-300 missiles to Iran, but has delayed delivery amidst its manoeuvring between Tehran and Washington. The S-300 system can shoot down aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missile warheads at a distance of more than 90 miles and altitudes of about 90,000 feet.

0815 GMT: Mousavi on Oppression in the Name of Islam. Green Voice of Freedom has a full summary of Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech, which we noted yesterday, to veterans of the Iran-Iraq War:

Tyranny and oppression are bad regardless of the circumstances and the time, regardless of whether it is during the Pahlavis [the dynasty of the Shahs] or the Islamic Republic. In fact, oppression under the Islamic Republic is worse because it is done in the name of Islam. Does Islam accept the violation of a human being or obtaining confessions from him by forcing his head down the toilet?

Mousavi's reference to forced confessions is drawn from the experience of Hamzeh Karami, who has written to the Supreme Leader about the abuse in prison (see 0635 GMT).

0800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. According to IRNA, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi met with 17 prisoners, some or all of whom are reportedly on hunger strike, and their families on Tuesday.

After hearing the concerns and demands, Doulatabadi reportedly ordered that families be allowed to meet with the detainees, denying that there had been any restrictions.

0645 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The Washington Post picks up on the US formal announcement of sanctions against 21 "front companies" for the Iranian Government, including firms in in Belarus, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Luxembourg.

An EA source points us to background on two of the sanctioned German companies: Breyeller Stahl Technology and IFIC Holding AG.

0635 GMT: The Campaign of the Political Prisoners. Yesterday, Josh Shahryar offered a sharp analysis of the impact of revelations by journalist Isa Saharkhiz, detained in Evin Prison, and former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, held for months after the election and forced to appear in a show trial.

There's a significant sequel. Hamzeh Karami, the manager of the reformist Jomhouriat website and a senior official at Islamic Azad University, has written to the Supreme Leader of his treatment in detention: "They put my head in a dirty toilet 20 times to make me give a false confession. When I screamed "Ya Allah". they said, "We are your God today and will do to you whatever we want."

In the "confession" that he gave at the Tehran mass trial last August, Karami implicated Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, claiming that Hashemi had been involved in fraud and manipulation of the Presidential election.

0615 GMT: We open today with some political theatre from President Ahmadinejad (Drama? Comedy? Farce? You decide.):

We had noted yesterday that the President had criticised current United Nations sanctions, connecting them to the "cup of poison" that Ayatollah Khomeini had to drink when accepting the 1988 UN resolution for a cease-fire in the Iran-Iraq War. He had denounced Western media such as the BBC and CNN. But there's more....

According to Raja News, a fervent backer of the Government, Ahmadinejad told his audience at a conference on international broadcasting that the recent "spy swap" between Russia and the US affects Tehran. In the deal between Washington and Moscow, the released Russian agents will pose as nuclear scientists and accuse Iran of plans for a military capability.

Iranian sources claim that official media were so embarrassed that, except for Raja, they censored this section of the speech.

Meanwhile, Pedestrian has posted a clip of Ahmadinejad's speech on Monday to a conference of the Iranian diaspora, offering this interpretation: "The Iranian political libido is going berserk."