UPDATED Iran Snap Analysis: Waiting for the Crumbling?

UPDATED: An EA reader responds to our thoughts with a second account from Iran: "Our family are rural. This is EXACTLY what my relative found on the economy. 'They' [Iranian authorities] are terrifed of the sanctions."

For me, the most striking statement on Monday came not from a President or a Supreme Leader, not from a Mousavi or Karroubi, but from a phone call from Tehran, summarised by an EA reader:

"A friend reported rising unemployment and prices for food and other commodities: meat costs 12 Euro/kg (about $6.50 per pound), i.e., the price has doubled within a year. He also said that the people have adopted a policy of passive resistance, watching the economy crumble, so that the regime cracks down."

Only one report and, of course, it could be exaggerated or even wishful thinking. But on 7 Tir --- yesterday's anniversary of the 1981 bombing that killed many in Iran's leadership, leaving martyrs such as Ayatollah Beheshti --- there was little to counter that message.



President Ahmadinejad once again focused on (took refuge in?) the "international", making the pointless declaration that Iran would "punish" the West for sanctions by refusing to hold uranium enrichment discussions until late August. The Supreme Leader's office, hoping to obscure the doubts about Iran's judicial process, issued a tangential statement denouncing the "propaganda" of the opposition and foreign media.

That was about that. The only public gathering that was noted were "hundreds" of Iranian who made a synchronised appearance in front of the French embassy to chant against foreign perfidy and the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, who carried out the 1981 attack.

Meanwhile, throughout the day, the drip-drip-drip of  economic and political news, pointing to erosion and division, continued....

Comments

[Kurt]

Congrats to Arshama for the scoop.

[Gunniy]

Sahimi with an other interesting piece asking for the ultimate power in Iran. Do you know that Khamenei has started his carrier as a protester?
Citation “At one point, Khamenei even threatened to quit politics and stayed home for three days in protest…………………..”

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/06/fissures-in-the-regime.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranb...

[Bozorg]

This has to be the most disgusting piece of hypocrisy that I've EVER witnessed:

Iran slams Canada human rights abuse - http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=132565§ionid=351020101" rel="nofollow">http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=132565&sec...

[SmileIran.Com]

What "scoop"?

Scott is more than happy to use any anecdote that supports his case and most of his readers eat it up.

1) Price of meat is less than 12 Euro/kg. I bought 1 kg of meat yesterday for approx. 13 thousand toman, around 13 dollars, which comes to 10 euro. But even that is more expensive than average, because I bought it from a place which is slightly more expensive than other places, also I asked them to clean and chop half of it into small cubes and other half to mince it, which has extra cost too.

2) The price has doubled in a year? Show me anywhere that says that price of meat in Iran was less than 6-7 dollars in 2008

3) Does "passive resistance" mean doing nothing and just living in their lives? Is this another way of saying the GM is dead?