Iran Analysis: Missing the Important Story?

More evidence from Iran on Monday of opposition momentum, of Government jitters, and of a spiralling of arrests and violence.

Sunday's attack on the homes, offices, and car of prominent Iranian figures --- Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, Mehdi Karroubi, and the family of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri --- justly received much attention yesterday. The assault by a crowd (paramilitary Basiji or just "interested" citizens?), reminiscent of attacks on homes and offices of "reformists" just before Ashura (27 December), follows the 4 June humiliation of Seyed Hassan Khomeini at the ceremony for his grandfather, Ayatollah Khomeini.

This is a disturbing indicator either that someone within the regime is using this public strike force to ramp up intimidation or that a section of the Iranian population is now beyond restraint. Both ironic and disconcerting, then, that the regime would not utter a word about Sunday's attacks --- just as they remained silent on the Khomeini shout-down. At the same time, President Ahmadinejad, displaying either hypocrisy or his own lack of authority, was denouncing the enforcement of "morality law", such as the supposedly inappropriate wearing of hijab, by pro-regime groups on the streets.

The paradox, however, is that far from shutting down the opposition, only days after dissent re-appeared publicly on the anniversary of the election, the aggression against reformist clerics and politicians is likely to reinforce the challenge.

Monday was seized, at least for a significant moment, by the video that emerged of a Tehran University rally against the regime. That demonstration, impromptu and not summoned by any opposition "leader", was fuelled in part by the commemoration of the violence of 14 June 2009, when  the university's dormitories were raided and several students were killed by security forces.

That in turn takes us to today's anniversary of 25 Khordaad, 15 June 2009, when millions came out in protest over the outcome of the election. Mir Hossein Mousavi, who was quick to release a comment on Monday linking the vitality of the Green Movement to the illegitimacy of the Government and the violence against Sane'i, Montazeri, and Karroubi, has promised a longer statement today on the objectives and strategies of the opposition.

All in all, then, a sign that the post-election conflict remains a significant conflict entering its second year. At the same time, however, there is a depressing rush of evidence that "Western" difficulties in covering the crisis have degenerated into a collective failure of tangential and plain wrong commentary.

Foreign Policy magazine, which had published seven commentaries of interesting if varied quality on the anniversary of the election, turns the collection into a food fight --- with no further insight --- by inviting in the authors of Race of Iran to offer an overall critique.

Other journalists go off on tangents. Ali Akbar Dareini of the Associated Press, whose dismissal of 22 Khordaad as a "quiet day" raced around non-Iranian outlets, writes, "The hardline spiritual mentor of Iran's president has made a rare public call for producing the 'special weapons' that are a monopoly of a few nations — a veiled reference to nuclear arms."

That might be a story, if not for the inconveniences that Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi did not make a "public call". He wrote, "The most advanced weapons must be produced inside our country" in a 2005 book, reprinted in 2009, which was circulated to a small circle of clerics.

And still others just decide to write with limited, if any, consideration of Iran's internal matters to make sweeping declarations. So Joe Klein of Time pronounces, "The real question is whether Iran should be treated as Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union." (Answer: "Iran is more like a baby Soviet Union.")

Eyes on the ball, ladies and gentleman. It's yet another day in Tehran )not 1933 Berlin or 1950s Moscow) with events --- events that bring hope, events that bring anxiety, events that bring uncertainty.

Events that deserve more than simple conclusion or dismissal.

Comments

[Kurt]

"The real culprit was -- and, unfortunately, still is -- willfully bad journalism and analysis, motivated in at least some cases by writers' personal political agendas. "

...

"Indeed, since manufactured claims about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction led the United States to invade Iraq in 2003, no analytic line has had a more damaging impact on U.S. foreign policy than ungrounded assertions about fraud in Iran's 2009 presidential election and the Green Movement's supposedly inexorable momentum."

I forgot, the Leveretts live in the ether, they have no agenda... and unlike Juan Cole, don't think détente is possible without throwing the GM under the bus (why not?).

Scott, why did you link that? I actually read it... and now I'm irritated. Two little smug divas they are. And what are they smoking? Either that, or Ahmadi's miasmic myopia is infectious.

------

Dareini is real spotty, as per usual, I see. Thanks for the heads up on that.

[WitteKr]

"Scott, why did you link that? I actually read it... and now I'm irritated."

I read the article too. And I got irritated as well . But then I became happy, reading the comments :-) The best one (by SHHH) I found had this to conclude with: "All of which makes me wonder why FP publishes their embarrassing drivel or anyone pays them for tv or other appearances. They've become almost as bad as the GOP's "Joe the Plumber" for the IRGC.
*sigh*"
Brilliant!

[Catherine]

I haven't read their article yet, but will now do so for the comments :-).

Here's something not irritating at all from FP that for awhile was in the right sidebar of the Leverett's rebuttal: 'Even the Regime Hates the Regime'
Don't be fooled by Tehran's show of strength. The revolutionary rot runs deep.
BY KARIM SADJADPOUR | JUNE 11, 2010
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/11/even_the_regime_hates_the_regime" rel="nofollow">http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/1...

[Observer]

Consider the plight of Iran's refugees in Turkey -- there are so many now. IMHO, that in itself is a 'missing important story.'

Good people are working night and day to save individuals, one at a time, but the task is daunting, and the refugees are in constant danger from IRI agents and the threat of deportation back to Iran. Please read:

http://iran-information-project.org/pages/stuff/guterres-letter.php" rel="nofollow">http://iran-information-project.org/pages/stuff...

June 8 Letter to UN Secy. Gen. Ban Ki-moon, UN High Commissioner Guterres and UNHCR Ankara

Thank you.

[Arshama]

Scott,

"This is a disturbing indicator either that someone within the regime is using this public strike force to ramp up intimidation or that a section of the Iranian population is now beyond restraint."

In Iran nothing happens without prior consentment by the authorities, or, given the distributed power structure of the IR, by one of its ruling factions. Iranian experts as Mohammad Javad Akbareini have already reported about attacks on clerics critical to the SL, organised for years by Mesbah Yazdi and his bunch of radical thugs.
Imho these new attacks are a clear sign that even clerics outside the political sphere are now endangered, a further attempt of the SL and his radical supporters to monopolise the Islamic discourse (and power of course) to their own benefit. Though I condemn any kind of attack on any person, be it a cleric or a civilian, this new procedure appears to me fully in-line with the policy of violence as a political means, sanctioned by the IR and its supporters - including the clerics - for more than 30 years.

I also wonder, why none of these "holy" men spoke out, when Ahmad Jannati publicly declared protesters as outlaws via national TV last summer! Obviously they give a d... for peacefully protesting Iranian citizens, which is also a clear sign of their squalor.
The heckling of Khomeini's grandson's speech on 14 June was a public starting signal for attacks on critical clerics in particular and the whole clergy in general, which has understood the message fairly well -- otherwise we wouldn't have seen so many high ranking clerics condemning this incident publicly.
Meanwhile ayatollahs Mazaheri, Mohaqeq-Damad and Mobasher Kashani can be added to this list, according to Nedaye Sabz: http://www.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jun/15/4492" rel="nofollow">http://www.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jun/...

In any case they are now experiencing the same terror as "normal" Iranian citizens, especially after the elections, paying the price for their utter moral irresponsibility, cowardice and unveiled self interest.

Arshama

[dchoubak]

Sounds about right.

[Catherine]

Arshama and Scott,
RE "This is a disturbing indicator either that someone within the regime is using this public strike force to ramp up intimidation or that a section of the Iranian population is now beyond restraint."

Attacking homes and offices of major religious scholars and Sources of Emulation is not a new phenomenon. In the early years of the revolution, Grand Ayatollah Kazem Shariatmadari had a falling out with Khomeini and was imprisoned and stripped of his religious credentials. And we all know what happened to Ayatollah Montazeri after Khomeini’s death: security forces imposed a life-long house arrest on him for his refusal to recognize Ali Khamenei as a legitimate Source of Emulation and the new Supreme Leader.

Golnaz Esfandiari (http://www.rferl.org/content/Iran_Reformist_Clerics_Come_Under_Increased_Pressure/2072622.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.rferl.org/content/Iran_Reformist_Cle...) has added some analysis to the general reporting on the recent attacks against Karroubi, Saneí and Montazer's office. Read starting at the heading 'Taking On Clerics'.

In particular:
"[Authorities] think that if they attack the house of a senior cleric, it will create fear among the lower-rank clerics," Mojtaba Vahedi, a former editor of the reformist daily "Aftabe Yazd" who currently resides in the United States, told Radio Farda. "If they attack the house of a senior politician, politicians without any support will become scared. If they beat up a couple in the streets, it will intimidate young people from taking to the streets to protest. All the current establishment does is aimed at creating fear, and yet all the violence hasn't brought any result."

And:
Another of Montazeri's sons, Said Montazeri, hinted at who he thinks was ultimately behind the attacks when he said they followed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's June 12 trip to Qom. "Thanks to Khamenei, Qom's atmosphere became convulsive," Montazeri said.

Hassan Shariatmadari, a Germany-based political analyst and son of Grand Ayatollah Kazem Shariatmadari -- himself an influential Iranian cleric who was placed under house arrest in the 1980s -- tells RFE/RL that the attacks are unlikely to have happened without Khamenei's consent.

"A closed circle of the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards and Khamenei make joint decisions regarding these issues," Shariatmadari says. "Khamenei can either prevent it or encourage it -- unfortunately he encourages [such actions]."