Afghanistan: The Latest on the US Military-Covert Offensive

Brian Downing offers this overview for Asia Times Online:

In the past week, American, British and Afghan troops launched a major campaign around the southern Afghan city of Marjah in Helmand province - part of the counter-insurgency program begun in earnest last year. Shortly thereafter, far to the south in the Pakistani port city of Karachi, a major Taliban figure was taken into custody. The two events may help bring about a negotiated settlement.

All go in Marjah

Operations began near the central Helmand town with little prospect of a large-scale battle with Taliban bands that had operated freely there. The much-publicized buildup to the operation might have been throwing down the gauntlet and challenging the Taliban to a major battle, but the Taliban know such engagements go badly for them as their levies are no match or a Western unit's cohesion and firepower - a lesson learned repeatedly over the years.


Marjah is not a large city but it is a large town. The 80,000 inhabitants lived under Taliban rule - an embarrassment to Kabul and Washington alike. Further, it is a major center of the opium trade - a source of Taliban revenue, though one often exaggerated.The town will become a logistical and administrative center for counter-insurgency programs: school construction, well-digging, medical and veterinary services, agricultural support, and the like.

The operation seeks to demonstrate the combat efficacy of the Afghan National Army (ANA). The West has made great efforts to build the ANA but has been disappointed by its performance in the field, which unfortunately ranges from desultory skirmishes with local insurgents to negotiated truces with them.

Perhaps most importantly, the Marjah operation is designed to stop the momentum the Taliban has been building over the past several years, which leads many Afghans to believe that the Taliban will once again rule the country and that they must sooner or later settle with them. Taliban success has come less from craft in the field than from blunders in Kabul and distractions in Washington, which left the country open to Taliban parleys with various tribal leaders.

Success over the years has left parts of the Taliban leadership with confidence that they can conquer most of Afghanistan, as they did in the mid-1990s. The campaign into Marjah, in conjunction with counter-insurgency programs and tribal diplomacy elsewhere, will seek to break that confidence and force the Taliban to a negotiated settlement.

Thus far, fighting has been relatively light. Most Taliban fighters fled the town during the buildup; others are putting up sporadic resistance, setting up explosive devices, and preparing to melt into the population if need be. They will also seek to bringWestern firepower down upon civilians - a tactic in which the Taliban have developed expertise over the years - making counter-insurgency programs in coming months less likely to take hold in aggrieved people.

Action in Karachi

More significant news comes out of Karachi, the Pakistani port city that has filled with Pashtun refugees over the years and to which the Taliban's chief council, fearing drone strikes, has fled from Quetta, the capital of Balochistan province. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, second to Mullah Omar in the Taliban leadership, was captured by Pakistani and American intelligence officials. Reports indicate that he is providing intelligence, though his colleagues would have changed locations on his disappearance.

Read rest of article....