Iran Analysis: What Now for the Green Movement?

Mr Verde writes for EA:

Three days after Bahman, we are still trying to pin down the size and significance of the events. Some claims can be dealt with as exaggerations: the regime's assertion that up to 50 million Iranians, in a country of 70 million, came out in support of the regime appears to be the silliness of spiralling rhetoric. Others can't be verified: the opposition argues that many of the people on the streets on that day were actually Green supporters who were marching in silence.

What we can "know", from the amateur footage that has had to substitute for a banned or restricted foreign media, is the heavy security presence on the streets of Tehran and elsewhere in Iran and the brutal suppression of opposition supporters. Those images were  reinforced in a series of interviews by two of Mehdi Karroubi’s sons (the third was arrested and beaten)  describing the attack on their father's entourage and the greatest security clampdown since the June elections.

We can surmise from Google's satellite photo of Azadi Square and surrounding streets at the time of the  main rally that there were sparse crowds in the square and that who were attending had been brought in by the large numbers of parked buses in the area, Amature footage taken of the crowd suggests that most who were there had little enthusiasm for supporting the government or the regime.



No matter how few the pro-government numbers were or how indifferent they seemed, the Greens were hoping for more of a show of presence on that day; in that sense, the regime may have achieved one of its goals. Yet that suppression also brought a "victory" for the opposition, who generated publicity for their cause because of the security forces’ brutal suppressions. By its actions before 22 Bahman and on that day, the regime has demonstrated how scared it is of the Green Movement. There have been trials, executions, arrest, threats, mass mobilization of security forces, and of crowds for rallies. There has been use of tear gas against a 72 year-old cleric who was a regime-approved Presidential candidate only eight months ago (Mehdi Karroubi).

But is this exposure of a regime's nervousness and fear enough to bring success?

The Green Movement is made up of a loose collection of widely varying groups, ranging from Islamic Republic reformists to exiled opposition organisations.  Originally the movement was calling for cancellation of the presidential elections, which it said was fraudulent, but the authorities' ignorance of that call and response with brute force brought the perception that the problem was the Islamic Republic’s entire system of governance.

The question is no longer just the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government, but the legitimacy of the Republic and its core values like velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical supremacy). The slogans on the streets shifted from “where is my vote?” to “death to Khamenei”. At the same time there were signs of strain within the Green Movement. Some factions, mostly exiled groups allied to the movement, were calling for dismantlement of the Islamic Republic and a new Constitution. Others, mostly the leaders within Iran, were calling for reform of Islamic Republic, but within its Constitution.

As the protests continued, and especially after the events of Ashura (27 December), which did more damage to the Islamic credentials of the regime than any other single event, the Movement’s leaders within the establishment --- Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami and other senior clerics and politicians --- have started questioning the legal and religious legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. Mousavi said that the 1979 Islamic Revolution had failed to achieve its original aim of eradicating tyranny and dictatorship in Iran, and Karroubi said that he does not believe in the form of the Republic that exists in Iran today. This was a dramatic shift in a short period of time. Significantly Mousavi, Karroubi and the other opposition leaders were basing their new assessments on the actions of the regime, not on a change of heart or political values.

So it seems that the regime by its own actions has managed to discredit itself to the point that even its own former high-ranking officials are now openly questioning its legitimacy. These pronouncements by the Movement’s leaders in Iran reduce the gap between their stance and that of the external opposition. They also re-confirm that the actual movement is based and operates in Iran, with the overseas based opposition acting in an important supporting role.

The Green Movement has demonstrated that it has widespread support and is adaptable. But this is not enough for its success. Part of the problem is that the Movement is facing a leadership in the Islamic Republic in the form of Ayatollah Khamenei, who seems to be intent on proving he was right when on 13 June he declared the election was over and there was no crisis. The regime seems to be backing itself into a corner with every action it takes, but the Green leadership is not able to bring about the reforms that it says (and promised during the presidential campaign) are needed to rescue the regime and the country. There is a dangerous stalemate as Khamenei declares, "You are either with me, or we all go down together."

The immediate Green re-assessment has been of tactics. The Green Movement has been using the regime’s own many public occasions to make its persistent presence known. Usually this has taken the form of taking to the routes that are announced for the official marches, but using Green signs and slogans. If the Greens were stopped from taking part in the announced routes, they would disperse across a wide area and continue with their protests. This would not allow the Greens to gather in large numbers, but it would stretch the resources of the security forces to breaking point (and as seen on Ashura to their humiliating retreat in some places).

For 22 Bahman, Mousavi called for Green supporters to take part in the official marches, but with their own markings (green signs).  Seeing the success of the protestors against the riot police on Ashura, some from within the movement called for a “Trojan Horse” approach. Protestors would dress like the government supporters with no visible signs of green, try to get in front of the podium, and then heckle Ahmadinejad. A few were even speculating whether they could pull a “Ceaucescu” on him, referring to the Romanian dictator who was overthrown and executed in 1989.

It seems the events of Ashura had got to some people’s heads. They had forgotten that this is primarily a movement for peaceful and gradual change and not for violent revolution or public executions.  While 22 Bahman may seem a disappointment to some, just try to imagine if the “Trojan Horse” tactic was actually carried out. It could have led to open street fights between well equipped security forces and the empty handed protestors. It could have been a bloodbath.

The lesson? In the run-up to 22 Bahman, there was much anticipation in the opposition camp, but no real sign of a proper action plan. Everyone was talking about “something” happening, but no one was able to say “what” or by “what means” or indeed “what next”.

And this is the weakness of the Green Movement. While the leadership is becoming more articulate in stating its views and aims, it is failing to define a tactical plan of action and passing it onto its supporters.  It is looking like a strong army with numerous and brave soldiers and clever generals but weak communications. This is partly due to the heavy government crackdown. Almost all of Mousavi’s and Karoubi’s advisors are in prison, there is no independent media, satellite TV channels are disrupted, and the Internet is heavily filters and at times disconnected.

There is another problem, however: the movement’s growth and success in a short period of time. On the morning of 13 June (the day after the elections) no one would have been able to predict that the regime would be forced to lock down Tehran as a military camp and bus in foreign journalists, like children being taken to an out-of-town attraction, for Ahmadinejad’s 22 Bahman speech.

The pressure of the public protests have put the regime on the back foot and caused it make numerous errors of judgement that would come back and haunt it in the future. But the leadership of the Green Movement has not been able to tap into the full potential of the protest. Although it has managed to clarify its aims, it has not yet produced a clear road map.

The events of the past eight months have proven that the regime is not able to quash it. But the Green Movement is no longer content with just existing and surviving; it has passed its phase of vulnerability and infancy and now feels mature enough to be looking for actual results from its own actions, rather than just surviving the regime onslaught. The expectations prior to 22 Bahman point to this. Here lies the challenge for its leadership.

With the regime has been reduced to a point where it is celebrating its own survival rather than success, healthy debate is starting within the movement about its future directions and tactics (for example, whether to just stick to the current practice of attending the government marches, or to starting looking towards public strikes, etc.). This discussion, however, cannot just circulate amongst the grassroots if regime weakness is to be converted into positive change.

Mir Hossein Mousavi has on several occasions called the people the true leaders of the Green Movement. He calls himself one of the Movement’s followers. This is all well when trying to credit the people for the movement’s resilience, but it is time for the movement’s leaders to put aside modesty and actually lead the movement with tactical direction.  If they are for any reason unwilling or unable to do so, they need to make it clear.

Comments

[Ali Mohommad]

Unfortunately, it appears the leaders within Iran will have to take a tip from Khomenei and leave the country to regain the freedom to speak and lead from outside Iran like Khomenei and then return on a future date, at least this is one idea. The leaders could also become martyrs is the other option. Leaders could be like Ghandi and Martin L King and face personal sacrifice and possible extreme hardship, imprisonment, family sufferings. Leaving the country is a viable alternative, exercised by many professionals and noble peace prize recipents. To survive, coalitions must be formed, extreme sacrifices will be required, and better planning.

[Ali Mohommad]

By term "leaders" = I am refering to the Green Leaders.

[Rev. Magdalen]

Thank you very much, Mr. Verde, for this wonderful analysis. I love your metaphor of the movement having passed its infancy! I recall when some pundits were saying it was "embryonic" so it's clear amazing progress has been made. Now even the Leveretts must admit there is such a thing as the Green Movement, and it may not be about to overthrow the Regime right this minute, but it's not going anywhere either. It can hang on through the worst the Regime can throw at it and survive, and even make a lot of noise! People's minds are made up, and their hearts are set.

As for leadership, there are so many new tools available today, people are unsure what powers they actually give us. Is it possible to run a grassroots movement with no one single, vulnerable, leader? Can that really be done? Is instant communication enough? What if there's disinfo in it, or if every message has to be publicly seen by all, so there's no way to secretly plan? Can you hide things in plain sight and filter out the chatter enough to really use it? Nobody has ever tried these things before, so we don't know how it will work out.

I recall I once read an article (I regret I don't have a link) about a company that tried implementing an internal comment system where all its employees could anonymously blog about the company, and it was amazing how much information they collectively had about what was going on and what needed to be done. The company started putting up polls on the internal site about decisions the company was really facing, things that the "leaders" were pondering over. It turned out that the people's collective wisdom was very similar to what the leaders were going to choose anyway, and sometimes the people caught things the leaders would have missed.

I don't know how accurate my recollection of that story is, but I think it encapsulates the basic concept that people are going with when they say that they think a "leaderless movement" can work. But it depends on the wisdom of a lot of people being collected, so to achieve that, the movement needs some kind of system that the vast majority can settle on, which seems to be Balatarin right now, that can be used to propose actions, debate them, and then take a vote on whether or not to do them.

Once a system is in place, people can follow good problem solving procedures like brainstorming any wild and crazy ideas (maybe "trojan horse" would fall into this category) and just empowering everyone to throw their ideas into the ring, just let it all out there, because that's how the really good ideas get out too. And then you have debate over all the ideas, and everyone in the movement gets to have their say, whoever wants to. Then you vote, and everyone agrees to do what the majority rules.

Balatarin may not be a safe place for people to discuss these things. People may have to construct something on their own, go old school with it, private networks under the radar with only a few ppl in each node so if one gets busted the others are safe, or go super new school with it, using the latest encryption and anti-filter to completely anonymize users and defeat snoops that way. Maybe give up on internet altogether and use telephone party lines or audiotape cassettes, or mass text-in votes to a completely secure site outside of Iran, anything that people can use to debate and voice opinion can work.

These are just my humble suggestions of a very few of the many, many options available to the Iranian people. I'm sure they will achieve their goals on their own using methods nobody could predict. I'm just glad I got to live during this era of history so I can witness their brave struggle. It's an honor to share the planet with people fighting so hard against such brutality, for such noble goals!

[Catherine]

The failure of the Green Movement to achieve its specific goals for one day, albeit a very important one, does not change the fact that all the events, actors and statements that can be rolled into the term "post-election protest" are evidence of a broken, de-legitimised system that is the failure of the revolution, as Mousavi so clearly pointed out in his last interview-cum-statement. The Green Movement and all those who aspire to democratic change still have the ability to adapt and change their approach; the broken structures of the failed Revolution do not.

More:
http://www.rferl.org/content/Iranian_Revolution_PostElection_Unrest_Reveals_Cracks_In_The_Republic/1954539.html

[Catherine]

Estimado Sr. Verde,
I forgot to thank you for your very well-written and spot-on analysis of the situation as it stands. I've enjoyed all your posts so far. Keep up the good work.

[Catherine]

This article shows who the Green Movement should be keeping an eye on outside Iran:
'The Barricades to Freedom in Iran'
In the eight months that have passed since Iran's post-election protest swelled into a full-fledged uprising, the country's so-called Green Movement has made powerful enemies, from Western pundits (guess who?) to diaspora Iranians, disapproving Arab states to entire television networks.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-02-11/the-green-movements-hidden-enemies/

[maliheh[tehranweekly]]

I know Persian men&they wouldnt do this type of behavior against the Persian mothers,sisters&daughters~this is a arab trait

[Angleneda]

I believe it would be a game changer had people have a way of communicating with each other without the fear of goverment agents or worse being denied to do so at all. I don't know how feasible this is but if international community really wants to help green movement they should setup a free satellite internet for inside Iran.
If that can happen, a lot more creativity by the people will follow which in turn it will fill the gap for lack of leaders or brutal suppression.
If that's really viable, we should promote this idea and seek help from international community.

[Wie weiter? « FREE IRAN]

[...] 2010 — Thomas v. der Osten-Sacken Mr. Verde, Pseudonym fuer einen iranischen Aktivisten, analysiert kritisch und selbstkritisch die Ereignisse des vergangenen Donnerstags und die Schwaechen sowie Staerken des Green Movement. Must Read. Veröffentlicht in [...]

[samuel]

Mr. Verde,

Thank you for a highly amusing piece of fiction.

[cyrus]

People inside are clearly demanding a secular democratic government to replace the current one by chanting "Iranian Republic" w/ "Islamic Rep", "death to Velayate Faqih all together" the very foundation of the IR regime, even chanting "Obama, either with IR or w/ us" asking America's help while America is considered the #1 enemy of IR, "no to Gaza & Labanon, the best friends of the IR" and death to Russia & China" the main supporters of IR
Mousavi & the reformist leaders have the role of Trojan horse for the people, students used Mousavi to organize and form the green movement and he had no other options, but to follow them.
Even a decade and half ago, the majority of people in Iran I used to speak to were considering IR a major mistake and failure of the nation and there wasn't any questions of if, but the question of when and how this regime come to an end.
Untill the presidential elections, people couldn't imagine that one day they'd be able to dare to talk against the regime

[cyrus]

(Continue) Ppl Couldn't imagine that they'd dare to talk against the regime to their next door neighbor, forget about publiclly chanting death to regime & its supreme leader & the very foundation of it
Now people are fearless & speak against the regime where ever they go, the psychological effect of this to the regime supporters is more effective than any protest
Now let me predict what the next step of greeen movement will be:
Green will keep growing underground & slowly many of the IRGC or basiji supporters join the crowd, but secretly
Also the leadership of the green movement will completely shift to outside of the country, if any of the reformist leaders flee the country, they'll have only one option to get back political support, denounce the IR and shift to secular democratic leadership
There will be more than one secular leaders and I expect Shirin Ebadi the peace prize winner and Reeza Pahlavi as two of the maineaders from outside, unlike the outside, RP has the strongest support (among secular leaders) inside Iran now and that support will continue growing
When it comes to a secular democratic movemen, the leadership doesn't play such an important role and instead its the platform that's important
At last, when the green movement has strong support within the military & the rest of the governmennt as a secular mvmt, there will be a final protest leading to the fall of this regime, a temp gov & then a national referandum
I can't predict exactly when, but I could predict that it'll happen within 2 years period (could b much sooner depending on various factors)

[cyrus]

Don't think that this movement was fromed because of the election results, this movement is based on the unsatisfied demands of the nation over decades and just exposed itself after the elections
many like me didn't even vote, but took part in the movement, it's a civil rights and at the same time revolutionary movement, a peaceful one unless the regime forces it into getting violence & then the supporters of this regime will be the real losers because people are 75,000,000 strong!!!

[Jalil]

Thank you for one of the most rational opinions expressed during the recent events! I always wonder why some of us, who enjoy the calm and the security of living abroad, can easily ignore the enormous risks and dangers associated with protesting against one of the most violent dictatorships in the new world. How can we induce our innocent freedom seekers in Iran to deliberately walk into the dreadful trap of the lords of conning, and cruelty?! Expectations as such that the Greens can bring the regimes down by hijacking some popular events and celebrations is, to say the least, is crude and creates false hopes and expectations. Such miscalculations may eventually damage the morales, integrity, unity and the effectiveness of the movement. Both Ashura and the 22nd of Bahman protests were indicatives of the fact that bravery and sacrifice alone, without proper organizational structure and effective leadership are not going to produce ideal results. Please do not compromise the safety of our young heroes in Iran and the achievements and the integrity of the Green Movement. It's only through effective planning, strong leadership, unity and ongoing solidarity that the long and difficult journey to a meaningful victory can be achieved. Letting our emotions to overcome logic and rationale would only benefit the sworn enemies of people.

[Catherine]

@ Cyrus,
Based on your own description of the Regime in your reply to Barry (http://enduringamerica.com/2010/02/13/the-latest-from-iran-13-february-re-assessment-renewal/comment-page-1/#comment-27721) and the many analyses like this one that I continue seeing: http://persia-house.com/node/1097, I'm not so sure about your prediction: "slowly many of the IRGC or basiji supporters join the crowd, but secretly".

[Cyrus]

@Catherine
i can't estimate the scale of it, but I know it's already happening
there are many within the IRGC forces that have disagreement with the regime and the majority of them will side with the winning side when they realize regime is near the end