Wednesday
Dec092009
Iran Exclusive: Clerics and Rafsanjani Plan The "Third Way" of Unity
Wednesday, December 9, 2009 at 7:24 
Written with EA correspondent Mr Azadi:Even as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was using a world tour and speeches to bolster his position, even as senior Parliament figures were fighting the President over his economic plans and approaches in nuclear talks, even as the Green Waves were planning the protests of 16 Azar, there was another strategy being developed behind closed doors in Tehran, Qom, Mashaad, and Hamedan.
It is a strategy linking senior clerics and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. And, in their vision, it is the strategy to bring Iran out of political, social, and religious disaster.
Here's the story:
Last week Habibollah Asgaroladi, the secretary-general of the Islamic Coalition Party, a member of the Expediency Council, and the head of Imam Khomeini's Committee, met former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to discuss a National Unity Plan.
Of course, this is not the first consideration of a Unity Plan since the 12 June election. Throughout the autumn, there were discussions and manoeuvres amongst conservative/principlist members of Parliament, Rafsanjani, and clerics to present a proposal that would reform the Iranian system, in particular curbing the authority of President Ahmadinejad, without risking significant changes to the Islamic Republic. At some point, however, the initiative ground to a halt, whether because of Ahmadinejad's resistance, the opposition of other factions, or the objections of the Supreme Leader.
The Asgaroladi-Rafsanjani meeting, however, marked the start of another big push for the Plan. Rafsanjani met clerics in Mashhad to discuss the possibilities. Last Friday, the leader of Mashhad's prayers, Ayatollah Alamalhuda proclaimed that Rafsanjani was part of the Islamic Revolution, having been close to Imam Khomeini and promoted Ayatollah Khamenei as a Supreme Leader. (In June, Alamalhuda, known as a supporter of Ahmadinejad, had said, "Hashemi is guilty and responsible for the Supreme Leader being oppressed.")
This was not the only clerical speech endorsing Rafsanjani. In Hamedan, Seyed Ahmad Khatami --- not to be confused with Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, the Tehran prayer leader who fervently backs the Government --- declared, "Hashemi is a brother of the Supreme Leader, and it is a falsehood to attack him."
The biggest clue, although we didn't know it at the time, came in an interview that Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi gave last Thursday. Makarem-Shirazi, known as a "conservative" cleric in Qom, has been following a middle way since June, challenging the Ahmadinejad approach while remaining distant from the Green Wave, but he went further last week. In the context of what we now know about Rafsanjani's talks with the clerics, this could not be a clearer signal of the new political effort:
When we talk about unity, we are talking about people who believe in the constitution, leadership, Islam, and the interests of the country. Those who believe in those issues can reach unity. However, the precondition is to create a calm environment and then some people, who are respected by society and are moderate thinkers, should agree on the principles of unity. I do not believe that we have reached the end of the road, there is no deadlock.
These discussions and proclamations underlay Rafsanjani's speech on Sunday, emphasizing unity while criticising the Government for its post-election measures and calling on the protesters to show restraint.
So, even though 16 Azar has occurred and continues in the form of university protests, there may be another political battlefront, one in which the protagonists are distinct from the "opposition" (indeed, the other way to look at this move is an attempt by clerics to split Rafsanjani from other Green leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi).The Government's recent threats against Rafsanjani's family, embodied in yesterday's warning by Tehran Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei of the prosecution of Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi, indicate that they take the prospect of a revived National Unity Plan very seriously.
The immediate question is whether the clerics, Rafsanjani, and other political allies (where stand you, Larijanis?) break cover and promote the Plan publicly. Alternatively, they may wait for yet another round of protests at Moharram, beginning 27 18 December, to shake the Government further.
And beyond that is the tougher nut to crack: given that it may have been the Supreme Leader who objected to the previous incarnation of the Plan, given that Ahmadinejad is a battler, given that the Revolutionary Guard is also a political actor, how does Unity emerge from confrontation?
Reader Comments (40)
Moharram starts 18th, not 27th of December.
What exactly is new about your exclusive? Above is last weeks news. Is the exclusive still coming or is this it?
There is no such thing as a monolithic group of clerics in Iran. In fact there are deep divisions within the clerics establishment itself. The names that you mention here are hardly even considered senior clerics with the exception of Makarmen Shirazi. What you fail to see is how deep these divisions are. The issue here is the position of Supreme Leader and Khanemeni himself. This crack is the result of a very large movement within Iran that wants reform not in the form of curtailing the presidential power ( contrary to what poeple think in the west the president does not have a lot of power in Iran) but in the form of curtailing the Supreme leader's powers and perhaps even eliminate the position all together. You also failed to mention that Rafsanjani in his last interview from Mashhad stated "if people do not want this us [the regime] we have to go [ the regime]". This was a direct challenge to Khamanei. It is not Ahmadinajad who is trying to diminish Rafsanjani's power and position, it it Khamanei who is doing it and Rafsanjani knows it. This struggle might not produce a winner soon however one thing that is guaranteed is that Mr Ahmadinajed will not survive a deal of any sort if there ever will be one. The situation you are seeing is called unsolvable of having no real solution in mathematical terms. This regime has started it's process of complete and irreversible collapse.
@ Mark Thanks! Couldn't agree more.
Peyman- thanks, I've just amended.
Here is a cleaned up version since the edit function does not work on this site. There is no such thing as a monolithic group of clerics in Iran. In fact there are deep divisions within the clerics establishment itself. The names that you mention here are hardly even considered senior clerics with the exception of Makarmen Shirazi. What you fail to see is how deep these divisions are. The issue here is the position of Supreme Leader and Khanemeni himself. This crack is the result of a very large movement within Iran that wants reform not in the form of curtailing the presidential power ( contrary to what poeple think in the west the president does not have a lot of power in Iran) but in the form of curtailing the Supreme leader's powers and perhaps even eliminate the position all together. You also failed to mention that Rafsanjani in his last interview from Mashhad stated "if people do not want this us [the regime] we have to go [ the regime]". This was a direct challenge to Khamanei. It is not Ahmadinajad who is trying to diminish Rafsanjani's power and position, it it Khamanei who is doing it and Rafsanjani knows it. This struggle might not produce a winner soon however one thing that is guaranteed is that Mr Ahmadinajed will not survive a deal of any sort if there ever will be one. The situation you are seeing is called unsolvable of having no real solution in mathematical terms. This regime has started it's process of complete and irreversible collapse.
Another point worth noting is that most of a senior Shia Ayatollah's ( marjaeh taghlid, which would correspond roughly to an arch bishop) have agreed to eliminate the position of Valie Faghih ( Supreme leader ). This position did not exist in Shia Islam before Khomeini and the Iranian revolution. Khamanei does not have much religious credentials and the clerical establishment has always been uneasy about this. This position will not exist after Khamanei's death. Some claim he is trying to position his son to be the next and that will never happen.
mark, what problems are you having with the edit function? I used it earlier today without any issues. Thanks.
I tried to edit within the 15 minute window, made the changes and saved it ( and it claimed that it saved the changes) and it never updated the original post.
I like to point out one fact here. There has been some form of revival / presentation of the national unity plan each iteration after a major protest. It is how the regime plays its cards. You can think of this more to passify the Marjah and the clergy. They get busy talking of the plan.
The unity plan is not necessarily blocked by the SL. It is blocked by the SL cause it is rejected by the Pasdaran. The Marjah and the clerics and Rafsanjani think and talk of a plan and yet it goes no where, not because Larijani or anyone actor does not support it, but because Pasdaran outright reject it.
It is coming to a confrontation between the People and the Pasdaran. Plans come and go to keep the Marjah and the Rafsanjani's on the sidelines, but it seems increasingly that the Pasdaran are forcing everyones hands.
I respectfully disagree. Again, the Pasdaran [the Sepah] is not a monolithic group either. The head of the Sepah has been changed 3 or 4 times in the last few years by Khamanei. Khamanei has been spreading and back channeling rumors that he is not fully in charge and that Sepah is really running this Coup. This is so he can have a scape route for himself. In case of emergency he will blame a few in the Sepah and Ahmadinejad, and survive this himself. Khamanei is in complete control of the Sepah and it is not the other way around. He in fact boasts sometimes about paying chess with enemies. Khamanei's favorite read is probably Machiavelli's prince.
In the U.S. they call this the two step dance. Sometimes referred to as Potomac two step. Potomac is a river which runs through Washington.
mark,
I`m not sure that SL is in full controll of Pasdaran, remember the fight over vise president. AN sacking the intelligence minister. AN defied SL openly. SL`s appointment of Sadegh Larijani. It seemed like a power struggle between SL and pasdaran. It seems that SL is subordinate to pasdaran.
mark, re editing I've just tested it again and it seems to be working for me. Drop us a line if you're still having problems.
Off topic and directed at Mike Dunn
I have experienced the edit issue also. It is however only when someone else has already posted a comment.
In other words, I can post a comment and go back and edit it with no issue, however if I post a comment, and someone else also right after me, posts another comment, then even though time wise, I have 15 minutes to edit my comment, it does not seem to work. Hope this helps
The problem with the whole reconciliation idea is that Khamenei's jig is up either way.
Everybody is now pointing at Khamenei, not Ahmadinejad as they were at first. Everybody knows that Khamenei and probably his son Mojtaba are personally responsible for this crackdown and all of the killings, beatings, arrests, tortures, and rapes that have been committed against Iran's young generations.
So once the cloud of fear is lifted Khamenei is finished anyway. 6 months ago you could have just thrown Ahmadinejad overboard and been fine Khamenei you stupid, stupid old man.
wimv- thanks, I'll keep investigating. We may just have to disable the feature completely until we can find out if the plugin is going to be fixed.
[Update: test edit to see if it's working...]
Odd, it's working for me.
Shangool,
There maybe elements within the Sepah who support Ahmadinejad. As I point out I don't think the Sepah itself is a monolithic group. The Sepah as an organization are under the control of SL. Elements in the Sepah could be working for AN. This scenario is highly plausible. At the end the elements in the Sepah who support AN can be flushed out in a few days if Khamanei decides to do so. Khamanei is positioning himself in the middle to assert his authority. He simply is playing one side against the other when it is required to strengthen his position.
so,
All the firepower should be focused on Khamanei. He is a corrupt man at least as much as Rafsanjani if not more. And his kids have all become millionaires just like Rafsanjani's. I think the movement should expose Khamanei'c corruption and his money abroad ( He and Mojtabah have over 2 Million in England with Hadad Adel's power of attorney. Hadad Adel goes to England a lot and loves shopping at Harrod's while he chants death to England). This would light a serious fire under Khamanei's rear end.
where on earth is the fact the clerics dont want faghih taken from? i have heard this some times but never given any proof of this. I dont believe it until it is proven.
Ayatollahs Montazeri and Saneii have both denied Khamenei's legitimacy and Rafsanjani said just a few days ago that if the people want us (the regime) to go, we must leave. Khamenei it is time to leave.
but they have not denied the faghih _system_ only khamenei as a individual. In addition these are only two clerics but we dont know what the thousands of clerics think. i also suspect that the anti-khamenei emotions these two have is personal.
Many have said it, including Montazeri, Sistani and Shariatmadari. In fact the Valie Faghih was never really recognized by Shia Ayatollah's outside of Iran. Valie Faghih was some B.S. created by Khomeini. In fact it was the brain child of Mr Montazeri who later called it a mistake.
Why in the world are we even discussing clerics and what they want? I do not give a flying care which cleric supports or does not support the sinister scheme of valie faghih. The way I see it is more like Valie Vaghih and they are all thieves and kaseif.
Mullahs have always preyed on people who did not know any better. Well, I hope the party for this gang of mullahs is over. Please let us focus on how people should crash their party in Iran.
I personally know of one Grand Ayatollah (Marja') who not only rejects khamenei's religious credentials but has always believed in the traditional Shia belief (pre-khomeini) that religious people should stay away from politics as politics is dirty.
People's increasing loss of respect for clerics along with the clerics who never bought into khomeini's political activity may be driving more clerics back to the traditional Shia view of staying away from politics.
Megan, the reason this topic is important is because a substantial portion of Iranian population is and will continue to be very religious. So the grand ayatollahs and their representatives at the local mosque have a major influence in whether these people continue to view the regime as the true representatives of allah on earth or view them as just another group of self-serving politicians.
The biggest differenrce that I see between khamenei versus Ahmadinejad and his IRG supporters is how they view Mahdi's return. I rarely hear khamenei talk about the hidden Imam's imminent return. However, Ahmadinejad and his IRG coup leaders are completely pre-occupied with preparing for Mahdi's imminent return. Their entire goal appears to be wanting to be able to kneel in front Mahdi and proudly explain how they had done everything in their power to prepare for his return.
To me many signs point to the fact that this group (Mesbah Yazdi followers) has taken control of much of the regime and khamenei knows that they can easily feed him some "Kahrizak Salad" and end his life. So he is trying to keep them satisfied to stay alive and in power.